Sunday Night Football brings an amazing game with a 51.5 projected total as the Baltimore Ravens head to Buffalo to take on the Bills. The hefty total and tiny 1.0-point spread for this Divisional Round matchup call for confident NFL DFS decision making. In this breakdown, we’ll explore the key NFL DFS ownership projections and player projections for DraftKings and FanDuel, giving you everything you need to craft winning lineups for the SNF slate.
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NFL DFS Picks: Ravens-Bills Sunday Night Football Divisional Round Weekend
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NFL DFS Picks for Ravens-Bills Sunday Night Football Divisional Round Weekend: Lamar Jackson
Lamar Jackson
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $11,800
FanDuel: $15,500
Fantasy Points
DraftKings: 23.32
FanDuel: 23.13
DFS gamers are quite familiar with Lamar Jackson on primetime slates, though more players have joined the reigning and two-time NFL MVP at the top over the last few seasons. This year, Jackson became the first quarterback to throw for over 4,000 while also rushing for more than 900 in the same season. He led the league in yards per carry (6.6), yards (8.8) and air yards (10.15) per pass attempt, touchdown rate (8.6%) and passer rating (119.6).
The salary algorithms have Jackson as the most expensive option on DraftKings, and he has the third-highest salary cap hit on FanDuel. One final DFS perspective, Jackson’s median fantasy point projection is basically identical to Jayden Daniels‘ despite the tougher opponent and bitter cold weather while also missing his most dynamic pass-catcher.
Top-tier signal-callers did not really test Buffalo much over the last 11 games. Jared Goff had a career game, going 38-for-59 with 494 yards and five touchdowns in Week 15; Patrick Mahomes tossed a trio of tuddies in Week 11, and Matthew Stafford tallied 320 yards and two scores in Week 14. The rest of the motley crew includes an over-the-hill Aaron Rodgers, a rusty Tua Tagovailoa, inexperienced field generals such as Drake Maye, Joe Milton III and Bo Nix, or has-beens like Joe Flacco and Tyrod Taylor.
When the Bills saw Jackson in Week 4 — which was, of course, a lifetime ago in NFL terms — Baltimore handled business at home in a 35-10 victory behind 199 rushing yards from Derrick Henry, including an 87-yard touchdown on his first carry. Jackson was able to enjoy the lopsided victory, adding 54 rushing yards and a score plus another 156 passing yards and a pair of end zone strikes on just 18 attempts.
In addition to his rushing upside and personal-best 45 combined touchdowns, it is hard to know where Jackson is going to focus his passes, with 11 different players catching touchdowns this season. There is a reason this matchup earned the Sunday Night Football slot for the Divisional Round.
Baltimore Ravens Positional Preview
Running Back | Ravens-Bills NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Divisional Round
Henry had a strong season, posting 1,921 rushing yards, which were the second most of his career. He led the league with 16 rushing touchdowns, catching two others. The Bills had a cakewalk parade of rushing attacks over the last month, getting New England twice, the Jets once and then the imploding Denver Broncos last week.
Tonight Buffalo will be dealing with Jackson and Henry, which is not going to be fun in the bitter cold. It is also important to note that the Bills allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing ball-carriers this season, so again, do not be fooled by the recent game logs.
Expect Henry to be on the field for around two-thirds of the snaps if the score is close, with Justice Hill working his way in for the remainder. If the Ravens are trailing, Hill has the edge in playing time since he is the far better pass blocker and receiver. Patrick Ricard is likely to play around half the snaps, getting a bump due to Zay Flowers being out of action, along with Baltimore’s proclivity for using “big” formations with Ricard and two tight ends. The 300-pound former defensive lineman recovered a fumble in the end zone, though he has not had a rushing attempt since Week 15 of the 2022 season. He saw five targets this year, catching three for 22 yards and a score.
Wide Receiver | Ravens-Bills NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Divisional Round
Flowers has not officially been ruled out with his knee injury, but that is a formality since he has not practiced in two weeks. In his absence, Baltimore went with their “heavy” personnel, which saw Tylan Wallace (53%, two targets), Rashod Bateman (49%, two targets), Nelson Agholor (27%, one target), Steven Sims Jr. (18%, zero targets), Anthony Miller (12%, three targets) and disappointing rookie Devontez Walker (3%, zero targets) battling for limited opportunities.
Baltimore had a three-touchdown lead a halftime last week, with Pittsburgh crossing the goal line twice in the third quarter of a 28-14 snoozer. The Ravens are likely to pass more on Sunday Night Football, and Bateman and Wallace are the probable recipients for increased looks from Jackson.
Tight End | Ravens-Bills NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Divisional Round
Isaiah Likely (80%, four targets) led the way for the tight ends, with Mark Andrews (61%, three targets) not far behind. Former Iowa State Cyclone Charlie Kolar was also between the lines for 30% of the offensive action, which tracks to his standard baseline. Kolar missed three late-season games, and he had just 11 targets on the year, with the most recent occurring in Week 13.
Andrews was third on the team with 69 targets after a slow start, while Likely was fourth with 58, tailing off a little down the stretch. Both players are above-average options and can be played on the same roster.
Kicker | Ravens-Bills NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Divisional Round
Justin Tucker is the NFL’s all-time leader with an 89.1% success rate on his field goals; however, he was dreadful this year, with a career-low 73.3% conversion rate. Even though he holds the NFL record for longest field goal at 66 yards, he has never been one for accuracy beyond 50. Inside of 45 yards, he is still stellar, which keeps him in the mix tonight. We also need to remember, he has spent his entire career in Baltimore, playing his home and divisional games outdoors.
Defense | Ravens-Bills NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Divisional Round
The Ravens were second this season with 54 sacks, though Buffalo ceded a league-low 14 sacks, eight fewer than any other team and 54 fewer than the Chicago Bears. Baltimore averaged only one takeaway per game, with the Bills suffering a scant six interceptions and two lost fumbles for the best turnover rate of the season.
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Now let’s dive into the final rankings for the Ravens-Bills Sunday Night Football slate!
NFL DFS Picks for Ravens-Bills Sunday Night Football Divisional Round: Josh Allen
Josh Allen
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $11,400
FanDuel: $15,500
Fantasy Points
DraftKings: 25.16
FanDuel: 24.97
Despite all the heroics and gaudy stats from Jackson, Josh Allen is the odds-on favorite to win his first NFL MVP. This season he became the first quarterback in history to run for three scores while passing for another three in the same game. He also had a jaw-dropping performance where he ran, threw and caught a touchdown pass, from himself no less.
Allen also had 40 combined touchdowns for the fifth consecutive season, including 12 rushing scores. Plus he had only six interceptions after averaging nearly 16 over the preceding three campaigns.
Allen had fewer than 20 fantasy points only once over the last 12 games, with seven games of 24-plus including 44.28 fantasy points in Detroit and 54.88 in Los Angeles against the Rams in early December. In his 16 full games, only once did Allen fail to score a touchdown — all the way back in Week 4 against Baltimore.
Buffalo Bills Positional Preview
Running Back | Ravens-Bills NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Divisional Round
James Cook tied Henry with 16 rushing touchdowns and another pair through the air. The 25-year-old also had his second consecutive 1,000-yard rushing campaign while contributing in the passing attack when called upon. That is a veiled way of leading into this crazy stat, which is calling out that Cook did not have a target in his last three games, and he had only seven in the last seven games. He also saw more than 14 carries three times in the last 10 games. Yes, he had 23 for 120 yards against Denver last weekend, but that was in a 31-7 romp where Buffalo was just looking to keep the clock moving. Cook has the fourth-highest salary cap hit on both DraftKings ($9,600) and FanDuel ($13,000).
This season, the only opposing running backs to top 50 yards against the Ravens were Saquon Barkley (23 carries for 107 yards and a touchdown) in Week 13, Najee Harris (18/63/0) in Week 11 and Nick Chubb (16/52/0) in Week 8. Between the rough matchup and lofty salary, it is hard to be enthusiastic for Cook on the main DFS sites.
Rookie Ray Davis is unlikely to play as he has been working through the concussion protocol, which boosts the stock of NFL nomad Ty Johnson. Where Cook did not see any targets over the last three games, Johnson had five and Davis got four. Johnson has very little red zone equity, but he should see around half a dozen opportunities, and with salary being a thing in DFS, he is very much in play on DraftKings ($4,400) and FanDuel ($7,500) as long as Davis is out.
Wide Receiver | Ravens-Bills NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Divisional Round
Khalil Shakir has 100 targets this season, which are seven fewer than rookie Keon Coleman (57) and veteran Mack Hollins (50) combined. Curtis Samuel popped up for 11 over the last two weeks, while mid-season trade acquisition Amari Cooper is lurking as well. Cooper would be more popular if he had not been dealing with a wrist issue, but word is that he is ready to rock.
Hollins leads the wideouts in total snaps, with Coleman (four missed games) topping Shakir (two missed games). Shakir is the main slot option and, of course, the lone holdover from last year, with regulars Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, Deonte Harty and Trent Sherfield Sr. all in other cities. However, Allen clearly does not have favorites, with 12 different pass-catchers logging a touchdown, excluding the wild play where Allen scored on a deflection.
Coleman and Hollins are the downfield threats, while Shakir is the possession option. Samuel is the wild card and very appealing on DraftKings ($2,400) as a discount dandy.
Tight End | Ravens-Bills NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Divisional Round
Dalton Kincaid played in 13 games this year, recording 75 targets for 44 receptions, 448 yards and two touchdowns. Dawson Knox played in 16 games, turning his 33 targets into 22 catches, 311 yards and a score. Kincaid and Shakir tend to curb the upside of each other when both are healthy, with each having 10 red zone targets, which Coleman also matches for the most among this crowded aerial attack.
Knox is $3,000 cheaper on DraftKings, and he brings a $4,000 discount on FanDuel. Again, salary is a thing in DFS, so be sure to keep Knox in mind as a potential discount dandy.
Kicker | Ravens-Bills NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Divisional Round
Tyler Bass is a steady option, converting on 82.8% of his field goal attempts for a second consecutive season. He did miss five PATs, though he still had a 92.2% success rate due to the Bills’ prolific offense reaching pay dirt with regularity. Bass is adequate from beyond 50 yards, converting all four of his opportunities this year and eight of his last 10 (80%).
Defense | Ravens-Bills NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football Divisional Round
Baltimore had only 11 turnovers on the year, which were the third fewest in the league, while Buffalo’s 32 takeaways were one behind Minnesota and Pittsburgh. The Ravens had the third-fewest sacks (24) in the league, while the Bills were in the middle of the pack (39).
NFL DFS Picks for Ravens-Bills Sunday Night Football Divisional Round: Rankings
Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Ravens-Bills
- Josh Allen: Just a tick above his counterpart.
- Lamar Jackson: Almost too close to call.
- Derrick Henry: Nicely rewarded with 69 red zone opportunities this season; 161-plus combined yards in each of the last four games.
- Tylan Wallace: Only $1,000 on DraftKings; harder to justify on FanDuel ($7,000), so drop him to the top of the next section for the blue site rankings.
- Khalil Shakir: Needs to get there via PPR volume, which is no guarantee.
- Justin Tucker: Feels like temperatures could drop to single digits with the slight 4 to 8 mph breeze.
- Tyler Bass: Yes, it is his home field, but Tucker has more experience.
- James Cook: Lofty salary for inconsistent opportunities that touchdowns have buoyed. There are enough cheapies to work him in, but without a score, he is at risk of being a decimal back.
- Isaiah Likely and Mark Andrews: Both can be used on the same lineup comfortably.
- Rashod Bateman: More popular than his tight end teammates docks him slightly for lack of differentiation.
Secondary Options
- Justice Hill: Decent stand-alone potential; path to upside is Baltimore trailing by multiple touchdowns.
- Ty Johnson: On the short side of a 70/30 split, with little red zone potential. Salary relief is still helpful under these conditions. Also returns kickoffs.
- Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox: Hard to be excited about both on the same lineup with Buffalo’s extensive crew of pass-catchers.
- Curtis Samuel, Keon Coleman, Mack Hollins and Amari Cooper: Good luck figuring out which was the right play prior to the end of the game. Loosely ordered by preference, but it is a thin gap from the “first” to the “worst” in this crowded wideout corps.
- Buffalo D/ST: Homefield advantage.
Lottery Tickets
- Nelson Agholor: Meh.
- Baltimore D/ST: Allen hardly allows opposing defenses any fantasy goodness, so it is going to take a splash play for this unit to be relevant.
- Steven Sims Jr.: Occasional offensive snaps, mostly returns punts. DraftKings only as a $200 baller.
- Patrick Ricard, Anthony Miller, Charlie Kolar, Devontez Walker, Reggie Gillingham and Quintin Morris: Will be on the field; however, this entire group projects for 3.7 combined touches.
- Tyrell Shavers, Jalen Virgil, Keaton Mitchell, Doug Flutie and Ray Lewis: Thanks, but no.
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