The Super Bowl is a familiar matchup, as the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles did battle just two years ago for the Lombardi Trophy. This is a for all the marbles, so we will need to be confident with our NFL DFS decision making. In this breakdown, we’ll explore the key NFL DFS ownership projections and player projections for DraftKings and FanDuel, giving you everything you need to craft winning lineups for the Super Bowl LIX slate.
NFL DFS Picks: Chiefs-Eagles Football Super Bowl LIX
The NFL season ends tonight, but NBA DFS is still going strong! Click below for a Stokastic+ NBA package and start winning with the same Sims tools that killed in this NFL season.
NFL DFS Picks for Chiefs-Eagles Super Bowl LIX: Patrick Mahomes
Patrick Mahomes
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $10,000
FanDuel: $14,000
Fantasy Points
DraftKings: 22.07
FanDuel: 21.15
Statistically, Patrick Mahomes had the “worst” season of his career, though he led his squad to a sterling 15-2 record in the regular season and the team is poised to make history if it can win a third consecutive Super Bowl.
Two weeks ago, Mahomes had 11 carries for 43 yards and two touchdowns, which were crucial in the 32-29 victory against the Buffalo Bills.
The passing game has been a pain point for Kansas City, with Travis Kelce and rookie Xavier Worthy being the only consistent options. Kelce led the team with 133 targets, 97 receptions and 823 yards, while Worthy had the most touchdowns with six receiving and three more via rushes. All told, Mahomes threw scores to eight different players in the regular season. In the two playoff games, he tallied only two tuddies, one each to Kelce and Worthy.
Philadelphia allowed 245.7 passing yards per game in the three postseason performances after leading the league with 174.2 yards per game in the regular season. Rookies Cooper DeJean and Quinyon Mitchell have been fantastic finds as the 40th and 22nd selections in the most recent draft. Of course, Darius Slay Jr. and C.J. Gardner-Johnson are already being among the upper echelon at their craft.
Posting gaudy numbers will be a challenge for Mahomes, but he is one of the best quarterbacks in the history of the league and no stranger to the pressures of the Super Bowl.
Kansas City Chiefs Positional Preview
Running Back | Chiefs-Eagles NFL DFS Picks for Super Bowl LIX
To start the season, Kareem Hunt was a complete afterthought. Now he is the lead running back for a team on the cusp of a third straight Super Bowl title. Injuries to Isiah Pacheco and Clyde Edwards-Helaire (who also saw his performance crater last year) opened the door for a change. Hunt spent the last five seasons with Cleveland, though he was unable to secure a role during training camp. Conventional thought had Pacheco returning to the lead role once he was healthy again, but that has not been the case.
By no means is Hunt a bell-cow back, but he is the lead option, seeing 47% and 58% snap shares in the two playoff games. Pacheco was at 31% and 29%, while Samaje Perine had 22% and 15%. Rookie Carson Steele has 10 postseason snaps but no touches.
Focusing on the passing game, Perine had the lone receiving score for this committee during the regular season. In the playoffs Hunt and Perine each had a target in the first two games, while Pacheco had one in the second round and two in the AFC Championship.
Pacheco logged five carries in each of the last two games, while Hunt did the heavy lifting with eight and 17 totes, scoring a touchdown in each tilt. It is important to remember that Andy Reid likes to tinker with things, and having had two weeks to prepare, anything could transpire.
The Stokastic projections have Hunt at 11.69 carries for 48.91 yards plus 1.7 targets for 1.41 receptions and 9.6 yards. Pacheco is earmarked for 6.22 totes, 26.02 yards rushing, 1.5 targets, 1.39 receptions and 9.1 yards receiving. Perine projects for two total touches and 11 yards. The backs could be more active in the passing game than their median projections suggest, depending on the continued effectiveness of the Philadelphia secondary.
Wide Receiver | Chiefs-Eagles NFL DFS Picks for Super Bowl LIX
The injury to Rashee Rice was devastating to the Kansas City passing attack, and the team has still not recovered. It brought in DeAndre Hopkins to help shore things up, but he has been largely irrelevant, though still more active than JuJu Smith-Schuster. Marquise “Hollywood” Brown missed most of the season, and his return further dispersed the targets.
Mahomes does not play favorites, taking what the defense gives him. Tight end Noah Gray being second on the team with five touchdowns is a strong illustration of this point. In the last two Super Bowls, Mecole Hardman, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Skyy Moore, Kadarius Toney and Kelce each caught a touchdown. We can parse things out until the cows come home, but there is no good way to know how Mahomes and Reid are going to strategize tonight’s action.
Tight End | Chiefs-Eagles NFL DFS Picks for Super Bowl LIX
This was supposed to be a “take it easy” season for Kelce, who turned 35 in October. However, that was not an option, so the future Hall of Famer answered the bell yet again. Kelce is no longer dynamic after the catch, but he still finds a way to consistently be open in the seams of zone coverage and his hands are as reliable as ever.
Gray has been strong as the heir apparent, looking worthy of his three-year, $18 million extension. He handles most of the blocking duties, but as mentioned previously, he was second on the team with five touchdowns. He was fourth in targets and receptions while tying Hopkins for third with 437 receiving yards. That Kansas City has managed to make the Super Bowl for a third consecutive season and the fifth time in the last six years is astounding when considering how much of a committee the entire offense has been, outside of Mahomes.
Kicker | Chiefs-Eagles NFL DFS Picks for Super Bowl LIX
Harrison Butker was absent for four games in the heart of the season, but the well-paid kicker has missed only two field goals since returning to action, going 7 of 9 (78%) down the stretch, including two playoff performances. He failed to convert only two PATs this year and, like his counterpart, will enjoy the climate-controlled Superdome as opposed to his outdoor home venue.
Defense | Chiefs-Eagles NFL DFS Picks for Super Bowl LIX
Kansas City was right around the middle of the pack during the regular season for sacks, though Philly was a tick worse than average. The Eagles have allowed 11 sacks in the playoffs, which is nearly 30% of their season total. The Rams did get seven of the 11 postseason sacks back in the Divisional Round, but that is a bell that cannot be unrung.
Take your NFL DFS strategy to the next level with our cutting-edge Single-Lineup Simulator, included in our DFS packages. This advanced tool allows you to create and analyze individual lineups, helping you optimize for maximum ROI. Need a hand? Dive into our comprehensive Single-Lineup Simulator tutorial for expert guidance and pro-level tips.
Here’s a quick look at how the simulator optimizes a Chiefs-Eagles NFL DFS Picks for Super Bowl DFS on DraftKings. Want to start building smarter lineups? Subscribe to our packages today and unlock the tools to boost your ROI like a seasoned pro!
NFL DFS Picks for Chiefs-Eagles Super Bowl LIX: Jalen Hurts
Jalen Hurts
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $10,400
FanDuel: $13,500
Fantasy Points
DraftKings: 18.69
FanDuel: 18.52
Jalen Hurts has made 62 regular season starts over the last four years, scoring a whopping 52 rushing touchdowns. In addition to his well-documented rushing skills, he also has 79 passing touchdowns, making him one of the most versatile field generals in the game — right up there with MVPs Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen.
Two years ago in the Super Bowl, Hurts had touchdowns runs of 1, 4 and 2 yards in Philadelphia’s narrow 38-35 loss to Kansas City. Even with former division rival Saquon Barkley in the fold and authoring a season for the ages, it is still Hurts who is the bigger red zone threat.
Unlike Mahomes, Hurts also has an embarrassment of riches when it comes to pass-catching options. A.J. Brown leads the way, and while he somehow did not earn Pro Bowl honors, he was named a second-team All-Pro for the third straight year. He cleared the 1,000-yard milestone, playing in just 13 games while also scoring seven times.
DeVonta Smith led the team with eight touchdown receptions and 68 catches, also playing in 13 games. The tight end position accounted for just over 800 yards and four touchdowns, giving Hurts options all over the field.
Hurts has -135 odds to score a touchdown, but one book stands out on Portfolio EV, with a distinct advantage.
Philadelphia Eagles Positional Preview
Running Back | Chiefs-Eagles NFL DFS Picks for Super Bowl LIX
Barkley is celebrating a birthday today, as is DeJean, if you are into that sort of karma. It has been impressive seeing Barkley play for a team that has other offensive threats, which have allowed him to put together one of the best running back seasons in recent memory. He had eight multi-touchdown games and likely would have had more if not for the “Brotherly Shove” being so effective at the goal line. The 28-year-old led the league in carries (345), total touches (378), rushing yards (2,005) and rushing yards per game (125.3). Putting together this stat line in 16 appearances is truly impressive.
Kenneth Gainwell should play on most of the snaps where Barkley is off the field, giving him a likelihood of four or five offensive opportunities. It may not seem like much, but it is still noteworthy.
Wide Receiver | Chiefs-Eagles NFL DFS Picks for Super Bowl LIX
Things get thin at this position, which is no surprise considering Brown and Smith regularly are between the lines for 90% or more of the offensive action. Jahan Dotson is likely to be on the field for around half of the snaps, with Johnny Wilson seeing action on 10 or so offensive plays. There is a chance that Parris Campbell or Ainias Smith will be on the field, but getting targets is highly improbable.
Tight End | Chiefs-Eagles NFL DFS Picks for Super Bowl LIX
Dallas Goedert had two different injury stints, costing him three and four games. He has the clear lead over Grant Calcaterra with 24 targets to just five over the last four games. Goedert had 18 looks across the three playoff games, with Calcaterra last seeing a target during Wild Card Weekend.
Kicker | Chiefs-Eagles NFL DFS Picks for Super Bowl LIX
Jake Elliott dealt with what some would call “the yips” in the middle of this season, though he was strong down the stretch, going 6 of 7 (86%) on his postseason field goals. The underlying concern is still there as he was 9 of 12 (75%) on point after touchdown attempts, missing just one of his 48 in the regular season. Tonight will be the 15th postseason affair for the 30-year-old, who had been otherwise trustworthy until this most recent campaign.
Defense | Chiefs-Eagles NFL DFS Picks for Super Bowl LIX
The Eagles were in the middle of the pack during the regular season with around 2.5 sacks per game. Philadelphia did collect 10 quarterback takedowns in the three prior playoff games, half of these coming against Matthew Stafford in the Divisional Round. Mahomes had the worst sack rate of his career (5.83%) this season. The opposition only got to him three times in his last three regular season outings, though Houston collected a trio of takedowns in the Divisional Round, while Buffalo recorded a pair of sacks in the AFC Conference Championship.
Turning the attention to turnovers, the Eagles had the fifth-most takeaways with an even 13 interceptions and 13 fumble recoveries. The Chiefs ceded a scant seven fumbles, though the Baker’s dozen for picks was notable.
Looking at OddsShopper, Mahomes is a tick above money to suffer an interception tonight.
NFL DFS Picks for Chiefs-Eagles NFL DFS Picks for Super Bowl LIX: Rankings
Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Chiefs-Eagles
- Jalen Hurts: Hurts, so good.
- Patrick Mahomes: Mahomies Unite!
- Saquon Barkley: Needs to score from 10-plus yards out; if anyone can, it is this birthday boy.
- Dallas Goedert: Strong point-per-dollar option, making him a key foundational play.
- A.J. Brown: It is going to be tough for the Chiefs to cover everyone; Brown can teleport into the end zone from anywhere on the field.
- Xavier Worthy: The speedster is going to be getting a lot of attention tonight.
- Harrison Butker: Steady option trusted by the team.
- Jake Elliott: How real are the yips?
- Travis Kelce: No longer an after-the-catch threat; he can still rack up the PPR goodness.
- DeVonta Smith: The $2,200 discount to Brown on DraftKings is sizable, while the $1,500 difference on FanDuel opens up ample roster deviations.
Secondary Options
- Kareem Hunt: Really needs to score a touchdown; otherwise he is a “decimal back,” per the classic Ben Rasa definition.
- Hollywood Brown: Stands out amongst the non-Worthy peers (cwidt?).
- Philadelphia D/ST: This unit has been top notch on all three levels; linebacker Zack Baun finished fifth in the Defensive Player of the Year voting, with defensive lineman Jalen Carter earning second-team All-Pro honors.
- Noah Gray: Gets lost in the shuffle on the field and is perfect for DFS differentiation.
- Isiah Pacheco: Could he be the Andy Reid surprise?
Lottery Tickets
- DeAndre Hopkins: Needs to get a red zone conversion to make noise.
- Kansas City D/ST: This isn’t their first rodeo.
- JuJu Smith-Schuster, Justin Watson and Samaje Perine: Touchdown longshots, but anything goes with Mahomes.
- Kenneth Gainwell: The team always rewards him with a couple of low-leverage opportunities. Also returns kickoffs.
- Grant Calcaterra: Should at least see one target; does have contingent value if anything happens to Goedert.
- Jahan Dotson: Last player worthy of his own line.
- Johnny Wilson, Parris Campbell and Ainias Smith: Project for 0.9 combined targets.
- Will Shipley, Nikko Remigio, E.J. Jenkins and Peyton Hendershot: They’re just happy to be here. Remigio does handle return duties for Kansas City.
Stokastic’s NFL DFS Tools & Expert Advice
Searching for elite NFL DFS advice? Our expert NFL articles are loaded with strategies to give you the competitive edge you need! Even the pros trust tools like Stokastic’s Sims Tool — the same stuff that helped TWO users take down DraftKings Milly Makers just days apart.
Ready to level up your game? Join our Hall of Fame Avatar Program and earn prizes for dominating DraftKings or FanDuel NFL DFS contests using Stokastic’s cutting-edge tools!
