NFL DFS Picks for Bills-Chiefs: Conference Championship Sunday Night Football

The Super Bowl is one step closer as we head to the AFC Championship Game for Sunday Night Football. The Buffalo Bills are 2-point road dogs, heading out to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs in a game with a 47.5 projected total. This is a matchup both teams are familiar with, so we will need to be confident with our NFL DFS decision making. In this breakdown, we’ll explore the key NFL DFS ownership projections and player projections for DraftKings and FanDuel, giving you everything you need to craft winning lineups for the SNF slate.

NFL DFS Picks: Bills-Chiefs Sunday Night Football Conference Championship

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NFL DFS Picks for Bills-Chiefs Sunday Night Football AFC Conference Championship: Josh Allen

The two rushing touchdowns saved Allen’s fantasy backers last Sunday, as he failed to top 200 passing yards for the third time in the last four games. In the last six games, only Bo Nix (321) topped 250 passing yards against the Chiefs, and he was facing the understudies in Week 18, with the regulars all resting. Allen has his work cut out for him in this clash of titans, but the rushing upside gives him the DFS edge on Sunday Night Football.

Buffalo Bills Positional Preview

Running Back | Bills-Chiefs NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football AFC Conference Championship

Pop Quiz: Over the last nine games, how many times did James Cook play at least 50% of the offensive snaps? The answer is once, with a 52% snap share last week. He was on the field for 32 plays, while Ty Johnson saw 21 and rookie Ray Davis had six. Davis got the touchdown, along with 29 yards on four carries. Johnson saw one target and had five carries, and Cook held strong with seven red zone opportunities, 17 carries and three targets.

Davis ended Cook’s touchdown streak at five games, and while it was disappointing, keep in mind that the “lead” back did have 11 touchdowns in the nine preceding games. Cook also had 29 total red zone chances in the last six games, compared to six for Davis and eight for Johnson. It will be interesting to see where Cook’s popularity lands since he has the second-highest salary on both DraftKings ($10,800), trailing only Allen, while on FanDuel ($13,500) he is behind both quarterbacks. He is going to need to continue seeing a steady diet of carries in his time on the field, which is a precarious position.

Wide Receiver | Bills-Chiefs NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football AFC Conference Championship

This is a very crowded situation with five options all seeing the field. Mack Hollins is the downfield threat, running a lot of empty routes. Khalil Shakir is the main slot receiver, but he is not alone and has only four touchdowns this season. Rookie Keon Coleman missed four games but still finished second among the wideouts for offensive snaps. Finally, we have a pair of veterans with Curtis Samuel having been with the team all year and Amari Cooper coming over from Cleveland at the trade deadline.

In the two playoff games, Hollins, Coleman and Shakir were on the field around 60% of the time, with Samuel and Cooper getting half that. In these games, Shakir had 13 targets, followed by Samuel with five, while Coleman, Cooper and Hollins each had four.

Tight End | Bills-Chiefs NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football AFC Conference Championship

The tight ends are essentially a continuation of the wideouts, with Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox each having five postseason targets. Knox is the better blocker, but he is well down the pecking order for Allen’s attention, while Kincaid gets more looks but also has to share the short targets with Shakir. In the two seasons prior to Kincaid’s arrival, Knox totaled 15 touchdowns in 30 games.

Kicker | Bills-Chiefs NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football AFC Conference Championship

Tyler Bass is a solid kicker, nailing 24 of 29 (83%) of his field goals each of the last two seasons. He also converted on 8 of 10 (80%) from 50-plus yards over the last two years, with the only miscues being six missed PATs, including five this season.

Defense | Bills-Chiefs NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football AFC Conference Championship

Kansas City was fourth this season, ceding only 14 turnovers, though 11 were interceptions. Buffalo’s 32 takeaways trailed Minnesota and Pittsburgh by one. The Bills have three takeaways in the postseason.

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NFL DFS Picks for Bills-Chiefs Sunday Night Football AFC Conference Championship: Travis Kelce

Tonight will be the 24th playoff game for Kelce, which has allowed him to tally 210 targets, 172 receptions, 2,020 yards and 20 touchdowns. How can we pick against a guy who has at least 70 receiving yards in his last 14 postseason appearances, with 95-plus yards in 10 of those games?

Noah Gray was on the field for only 10 fewer plays than Kelce, seeing three targets of his own, which were the third most on the team. He is a strong discount dandy on both DraftKings ($2,000) and FanDuel ($7,000). Peyton Hendershot is likely to step between the lines for a dozen or so offensive plays, but he projects for only half a target.

Kansas City Chiefs Positional Preview

Quarterback | Bills-Chiefs NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football AFC Conference Championship

Patrick Mahomes got the job done last week, and he has his team on the brink of a fifth Super Bowl appearance in six seasons. Pressure makes diamonds, and Mahomes could lead Kansas City to an unprecedented third consecutive Lombardi Trophy. Statistically, this was the worst season of Mahomes’ career, and he failed to make the Pro Bowl squad for the first time since becoming a starter back in 2018.

Experience counts for a lot, and the Chiefs were 15-1 this year with Mahomes at the helm; the lone loss came at the hands of the Bills 30-21 in Buffalo back in Week 11. This will be the ninth start for Mahomes against Buffalo between the regular season and playoffs. He is 3-0 in the playoffs but lost each of the last four regular season meetings. Of course, rising to the occasion when all the chips are in the middle is a specialty of Mahomes.

We know that Mahomes runs more in the playoffs, so do not lose sight of those potential fantasy points. Aside from Lamar Jackson last weekend, the Bills have not really been up against a top-notch field general. This includes games against rookies Bo Nix, Drake Maye and Joe Milton III, along with the New York Jets combo of Aaron Rodgers and Tyrod Taylor. The other two games were against Matthew Stafford, who was 23 of 30 for 320 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions in Week 14, and Jared Goff with a sublime 38 of 59 for 494 yards and five aerials strikes in Week 15.

Running Back | Bills-Chiefs NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football AFC Conference Championship

Talk about a running back by committee! This is just how coach Andy Reid likes things, of course, so we have to remember how we were spoiled when Isiah Pacheco stepped up at times over the last two seasons. Injuries had the Chiefs turning to Kareem Hunt off the scrap heap while never quite utilizing Samaje Perine how the Best Ball bros had hoped. After the bye, it was Hunt with 24 (47%) snaps, Pacheco with 16 (31%) and Perine with 11 (22%), while rookie Carson Steele snuck in for three offensive plays.

The Stokastic NFL stat projections have Hunt for 10.04 totes and 41.21 yards, with Pacheco earmarked for 8.57 carries and 35.18 yards. Each of this duo has about a 25% probability of scoring a touchdown. Perine joins the trio on the passing front, with each back projected for about 1.5 targets. That isn’t much, though a fortuitous red zone opportunity or a 17-yard reception from Perine at $1,200 on DraftKings would certainly spice things up. Each back had one target in the Divisional Round, so we have had a sneak peek for what to expect.

Wide Receiver | Bills-Chiefs NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football AFC Conference Championship

Rookie Xavier Worthy has been on a similar trajectory as Rashee Rice was last year, with things starting to come together down the stretch. Worthy had six targets last week and finished the season strong with 31 in his last three games. He and Kelce will be battling it out for the volume, though any pass-catcher has touchdown equity when Mahomes is under center.

Marquise Brown was second among the wideouts with a 67% snap share but well behind the 82% of Worthy. He had only two targets and no catches, leaving Worthy as the only wide receiver to get on the board. DeAndre Hopkins (31%) and JuJu Smith-Schuster (41%) were on the field for less than half the offensive action, with neither able to convert on their respective lone targets. Justin Watson saw four snaps, though he did not have any offensive opportunities.

Brown is the most likely player to redeem himself among the “new” Chiefs, with Hopkins not far behind. Again, this is a two-man show for the volume, and anyone is live for a touchdown. Perine had the lone receiving touchdown for the running backs, while seven other pass-catchers notched at least two tuddies.

Kicker | Bills-Chiefs NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football AFC Conference Championship

Harrison Butker missed four games in the middle of the season, but the well-paid kicker has missed only two field goals since returning to action, converting all three opportunities against Houston. The 29-year-old does his best work inside of 49 yards, failing on only five attempts over the last three seasons (92%).

Defense | Bills-Chiefs NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football AFC Conference Championship

Kansas City has been a strong defense; however, Buffalo ceded the fewest turnovers (8) and sacks (17) in the league, including the two playoff games. The Chiefs sacked CJ Stroud eight times last weekend, though they were in the bottom third of the league with 2.3 sacks per game, despite defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo opting to blitz nearly one-third of the time. During the regular season, the K.C. defense was around average with 1.2 takeaways per tilt.

NFL DFS Picks for Bills-Chiefs Sunday Night Football AFC Conference Championship: Rankings

Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Bills-Chiefs

1. Josh Allen: Time to seize the moment.
2. Patrick Mahomes: Mahomies Unite!
3. Travis Kelce: An oldie but goodie.
4. Xavier Worthy: Things drop off dramatically after the top 4, with plenty of uncertainty and options.
5. Noah Gray: Key salary saver.
6. Khalil Shakir: Hoping for volume; also returns punts.
7. James Cook: Needs to keep being fed when on the field, precarious spot for a player who had 16 rushing touchdowns and two through the air.
8. Harrison Butker: Homefield advantage.
9. Isiah Pacheco, Kareem Hunt and Samaje Perine: The first two are a coinflip, so let personal preference be your guide. The latter is DraftKings ($1,200) only.
10. Tyler Bass: Underrated DFS hero.

Secondary Options

1. Marquise Brown: Will he live up to the nickname?
2. Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox: One obvious, one less so.
3. Keon Coleman, Mack Hollins, Curtis Samuel and Amari Cooper: Sooooo crowded.

Lottery Tickets

1. DeAndre Hopkins: Needs to get a red zone conversion to make noise.
2. Buffalo D/ST: Strong unit working against a familiar foe.
3. Kansas City D/ST: Arrowhead advantage.
4. Ray Davis and Ty Johnson: Davis was a surprise with that touchdown last week, which makes things muddy. Each returns kickoffs.
5. JuJu Smith-Schuster and Justin Watson: For old times.
6. Quintin Morris, Peyton Hendershot, Carson Steele, Baylor Cupp, Nikko Remigio and Tyrell Shavers: Maybe in two weeks.

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