The Week 16 Thursday Night Football matchup between the Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers presents a unique challenge for NFL DFS players but also offers a range of opportunities. As usual, it’s crucial to dive into NFL DFS ownership projections, NFL DFS projections and NFL DFS Sims results to build optimal lineups. Let’s break down the top 300 ROI lineups and the field’s construction to help you get ahead for tonight’s game.
TNF NFL DFS Ownership, Projections & Stacks: Sims Picks
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NFL DFS Ownership: Field vs. Top 300 ROI Lineups
We’ve been comparing the ownership across the field and the top 300 ROI lineups to spot where leverage is present and where the field might be over or underestimating certain players. Here’s how ownership shakes out:
The Field Ownership:
- DEN 3 | LAC 3: 29.88%
- DEN 2 | LAC 4: 26.54%
- DEN 4 | LAC 2: 20.12%
- DEN 1 | LAC 5: 15.11%
- DEN 5 | LAC 1: 8.35%
Top 300 ROI Lineup Ownership:
- DEN 3 | LAC 3: 31.67%
- DEN 2 | LAC 4: 23.67%
- DEN 4 | LAC 2: 21.67%
- DEN 1 | LAC 5: 13.00%
- DEN 5 | LAC 1: 10.00%
The ownership across the field isn’t drastically different from the top 300 ROI lineups, indicating that there’s no significant edge with a particular construction tonight. However, DEN 3 | LAC 3 seems to be the most profitable combination.
NFL DFS Projections: Top Players in the Captain Spot
When it comes to the Captain spot, we see several players with notable ownership percentages. Here are the top players in the Captain slot:
- Ladd McConkey: 36%
- Justin Herbert: 22%
- Courtland Sutton: 14%
- Bo Nix: 10%
Ladd McConkey stands out with the highest Captain ownership, and there’s significant leverage here — he’s +19.6% over the field. This is a prime opportunity to gain an edge by getting more exposure to McConkey than others.
Justin Herbert, with 22% Captain ownership, is the second-most popular choice, but he’s less leveraged compared to McConkey. If you’re looking for higher upside, Herbert is solid, though his leverage is more neutral (+5.5% over the field).
NFL DFS Stacks and Leverage: Flex Spot Insights
In the Flex spot, here’s where we see some interesting leverage spots that could lead to a +EV advantage:
Top Exposures in the Flex Spot:
- Bo Nix: 63%
- Justin Herbert: 54%
- Ladd McConkey: 43%
- Courtland Sutton: 40.3%
- Javonte Williams: 38%
Leverage Players (more exposure in Top 300 ROI lineups):
- Cameron Dicker: +24.5%
- Justin Herbert: +12.1%
- Javonte Williams: +11.8%
- Bo Nix: +11.2%
- Devaughn Vele: +9.3%
These leverage players are undervalued in the field, providing a great opportunity to differentiate your lineups. Cameron Dicker, the kicker for the Chargers, is particularly interesting with 24.5% positive leverage, as he’s being underutilized by the field despite being a reliable scoring option.
Negative Leverage (less exposure in Top 300 ROI lineups):
- Quentin Johnston: -4.5%
- Josh Palmer: -4.4%
- Gus Edwards: -4%
In the Flex spot, Quentin Johnston and Gus Edwards are heavily underexposed, which could be a sign to pivot away from them in favor of higher-leverage options.
Duplication: A Less Duped Slate
One interesting trend tonight is that the top 300 ROI lineups are less duplicated than usual. Despite the ownership being relatively spread out, the top lineups are still distinct and less likely to be duplicated. This suggests a more strategic approach is required, with different ways to construct lineups in order to gain an edge.
Price Range Breakdown: Top Values
Let’s also look at the top values by price range, which can help differentiate your lineup construction:
Cheap Options:
- Lil’ Jordan Humphrey
- Hayden Hurst
- Lucas Krull
- Derius Davis
Mid-Range Options:
- Devaughn Vele
- Cameron Dicker
- Will Lutz
High-Priced Options:
- Justin Herbert
- Ladd McConkey
- Bo Nix
The cheap and mid-range players offer significant value. Devaughn Vele and Cameron Dicker are two players to watch for potential leverage and low ownership despite being in key roles.
TNF DFS Strategy for Week 16: Key Takeaways
To summarize, here are the key insights for building your NFL DFS lineups for tonight’s Broncos vs. Chargers game:
- Leverage McConkey: He’s +19.6% leveraged in the Captain spot, making him a prime candidate to differentiate your lineup.
- Justin Herbert and Bo Nix are solid options, but be mindful of their ownership relative to leverage.
- Javonte Williams is a solid Flex play with positive leverage, making him a great addition to your lineups.
- Cameron Dicker could be the hidden gem with 24.5% leverage—consider him for kicker exposure.
- Avoid high negative leverage players, especially Quentin Johnston and Gus Edwards.
