When it comes to NFL DFS, differentiating your lineup in large-field contests can be the key to hitting it big. The sheer number of entries in these contests means that many players are using similar strategies, which makes it crucial to adopt game theory concepts and leverage plays to stand out. In this article, we’ll explore NFL DFS leverage strategy and game theory for large-field GPPs — using Stokastic’s NFL Boom/Bust Tool, projections and ownership projections.
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NFL DFS Leverage & Game Theory: Stokastic’s Boom/Bust Tool
Game theory in DFS revolves around making strategic decisions based on how you expect other players to act. In large-field contests, where the goal is to finish in the top 1% rather than just cashing, you’ll need to think about how to set yourself apart from the majority.
NFL DFS Leverage Strategy and Tools
1. Ownership Projections: The Foundation of Leverage Plays
One of the most powerful tools for game theory is NFL DFS ownership projections. Stokastic provides detailed ownership projections that show the percentage of lineups that are expected to include a particular player. By understanding these projections, you can identify which players are likely to be popular and which will be under-owned.
2. Correlation and Game Stacking
Game stacking involves selecting multiple players from the same game to maximize the potential points from a high-scoring contest. Stokastic’s tools offer game environment data, including projected game totals and implied team totals, which help you identify games with high scoring potential.
3. Leveraging Ownership and Game Theory
Game theory in DFS revolves around making strategic decisions based on how you anticipate other players will construct their lineups. In large-field tournaments, the goal is to create unique lineups with high upside while minimizing overlap with the field because the goal is to finish really, really high up the leaderboard — not just cash for mere pennies. Basically, we’re doing everything we can to win.
One of the most effective ways to apply game theory in NFL DFS is by using Stokastic’s NFL Boom/Bust Probability Data. This tool gives you insight into how likely a player is to reach their fantasy point ceiling or floor compared to their median projections, and also shows how much differentiation these players can offer you from the field.
Key Metrics in the Boom/Bust Tool
- Boom Percentage: The Boom Percentage represents the likelihood of a player significantly outperforming their salary-based expectations. A high Boom Percentage indicates a player with strong upside.
- Bust Percentage: On the opposite side of the spectrum, the Bust Percentage shows how likely a player is to underperform relative to their salary. Players with Bust Percentages can still have upside, but if want players with a safe floor, you should look for low Bust Percentages.
- Optimal Lineup Percentage: This metric shows you how often a player appears in the optimal lineup based on simulations. The higher the percentage, the more integral they are to the best possible lineups (aka winning in large-field GPPs).
- Leverage Score: The Leverage Score is the most important column for game theory in the NFL Boom/Bust Tool, as it compares a player’s Optimal Lineup Percentage with their ownership projections. A high, positive Leverage Score means a player is under-owned relative to their chances of being in the optimal lineup, whereas a negative Leverage Score indicates the public is too high on them.
Strategies for Finding NFL DFS Leverage Plays
Target High Leverage, Fade Low Leverage
When a player has a high Leverage Score, it means the field is likely underestimating them and thus giving you an edge in large-field tournaments. By including such players in your lineup, you can capitalize on the market inefficiency. For instance, if a player has a 20% Optimal Lineup Percentage but is only projected to be owned by 10% of the field, that’s a lot of leverage that gives you a better chance at reaching the top of the leaderboard — differentiation combined with optimality is the key here.
Suppose a mid-priced D’Andre Swift is in a low-key favorable matchup but is only projected to be rostered by 4% of the field. Maybe he’s coming off a bad week and the public is fading him. The chalk running back is Christian McCaffrey this week (say, 22% ownership), and his projections are good, but his massive salary is costing those DFS players at other positions. As a result, McCaffrey is in the optimal lineup only 11% of the time. That’s hugely negative leverage.
Swift, on the other hand, has seen his salary drop because of an off game, but his good matchup has him projecting to be optimal 16% of the time. Now he has a 12-percentage-point difference between his ownership and Optimal Lineup Percentage, so he is much more likely to win you a large-field GPP.
Combining NFL DFS Leverage Plays with Stacks
When stacking players from the same team or game, consider incorporating players with high Leverage Scores into your stack. This approach not only gives you exposure to a potentially high-scoring game but also differentiates your lineup from others that might be focusing on more obvious stacking combinations.
In a game with a high over/under, most DFS players might focus on stacking the top quarterback and wide receiver. By targeting a less obvious receiver or a pass-catching running back with a high Leverage Score in the same game, you can create a unique stack that captures the upside without the ownership drag.
Conclusion
NFL DFS game theory and leverage plays in large-field NFL DFS contests require a strategic approach that combines ownership projections, game environment data and contrarian thinking. By using Stokastic’s NFL Boom/Bust Probability Data, you can gain insights into player ownership and game dynamics, helping you to construct lineups that stand out from the crowd and increase your chances of a high finish. Remember, in large-field contests, we’re trying to win — so we have to be good, but we also have to be different.
