The NFL returns with a rematch of last year’s AFC Championship Game as the Chiefs host the Ravens in a Week 1 Thursday Night showdown. Leveraging Stokastic’s tools, we’ll explore the player pool to identify the most impactful TNF NFL DFS contrarian picks and stacks.
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NFL DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Best Ravens-Chiefs Stacks for TNF
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NFL DFS Contrarian Captain: Travis Kelce
Stokastic’s Captain Optimal %
DraftKings: 9.3%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $9,600
It can often be difficult to find good contrarian plays on showdown slates, but when two juggernauts like the Chiefs and Ravens match up, there are naturally going to be players that fall through the cracks. With superstar quarterbacks Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson projected to be in a combined 140.1% of lineups between the Utility and Captain spots, other expensive players will be lower owned than they normally would be on showdown slates. Travis Kelce isn’t coming in with much leverage in the Utility spot, but he’s not getting nearly the love he deserves as a Captain.
Coming off a Super Bowl title and a summer spent with Taylor Swift, Kelce is feeling good about himself coming into Week 1. While his overall production slipped a bit in the regular season, Kelce still finished the 2023 campaign averaging 16.6 DraftKings points per game. The Chiefs added a couple intriguing outside weapons in Xavier Worthy and Hollywood Brown, so expect Kelce’s touchdown numbers to rise as the middle of the field becomes more open. Though the Chiefs won’t have the benefit of Brown playing tonight, Kelce has done pretty well without him, recently putting up a combined 58 DraftKings points over his past two games against the Ravens.
Stokastic’s Top Showdown Plays Tool projects Kelce to be optimal at Captain 9.3% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings. With only 8.2% of lineups projected to roster him as a Captain, Kelce is a great way to get different without sacrificing any upside.
NFL DFS Contrarian Utility Play: Ravens DST
Stokastic’s Utility Optimal %
DraftKings: 20.1%
Ownership Projection
DraftKings: 15.9%
As much as there is to like about the Kansas City offense, there’s no denying that the Chiefs find themselves in a tough spot matched up with the team they took out in the AFC Championship Game last season. In one of the few games Baltimore will be underdogs all season, the market is still giving the Ravens plenty of respect, as the Ravens are only 3-point underdogs in Kansas City. With points expected from both sides, it’s logical to expect skill position players from each team to garner almost all of the ownership outside of the quarterbacks. That leaves a few spots to look to get contrarian, with Baltimore’s defense standing out as the top differentiator to use in the Utility spot in tournaments.
The Ravens defense routinely almost always gets a lot of love on Showdown slates. Its ability to get turnovers gives Baltimore’s defense upside that many other defenses simply don’t have. That said, any defense against Patrick Mahomes often scares DFS players off, so it’s not particularly surprising that Roquan Smith and co. are falling through the cracks on DraftKings.
The Ravens defense is projected to be optimal as a Utility play 20.1% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings. However, only 15.9% of lineups are currently projected to roster it.
Other Contrarian Players to Consider
Justin Tucker, Samaje Perine, Deonte Harty
