Week 7 of the NFL season wraps up with a Monday night doubleheader featuring the Ravens traveling to Tampa Bay to face the Buccaneers and an interconference battle as the Cardinals host the Chargers. Using Stokastic’s tools, we’re diving into the player pool to uncover the best NFL DFS contrarian picks for Week 7 of Monday Night Football.
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NFL DFS Contrarian Picks for Week 7 MNF: Best MNF DFS Picks
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Quarterback: Kyler Murray – $6,500
Truth be told, a strong case can be made for all four quarterbacks on tonight’s slate. Lamar Jackson is, well, Lamar Jackson. Baker Mayfield is averaging 24.4 DraftKings points per game and gets a matchup with a vulnerable Ravens secondary. Kyler Murray has Jackson-like qualities and is projected to be about half as owned as the Ravens quarterback on DraftKings. Justin Herbert is in an even better spot than Mayfield, matched up with the Cardinals. While I like all four of those signal-callers, Murray is the best of the group in tournaments.
Murray is averaging 17.9 DraftKings points per game and has only led the Cardinals to an uninspiring 2-4 record. That said, Murray’s rushing ability gives him upside that only a few other quarterbacks can match. Though Jackson is one of those quarterbacks, he’s $1,500 more expensive than Murray and already getting plenty of ownership. As of this writing, Murray is projected to be optimal 24.04% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings. With only 20.9% of lineups expected to roster Murray, he stands out as one of the better leverage plays on the board. Stokastic’s Sims tell a similar story, as he’s currently in 22.7% of the top 300 lineups by ROI.
Running Back: Rachaad White – $5,700
Running back gets ugly on this slate pretty quickly, so it’s not surprising that J.K. Dobbins, Derrick Henry and James Connor are all projected for substantial ownership. While all three of those players are worthy of the ownership they are garnering, running backs can be pretty volatile on a week-to-week basis, giving us an opportunity to zig while the rest of the field zags.
Simply put, it’s hard to know exactly what Tampa Bay is going to do at running back with White back in the fold and both Bucky Irving and Sean Tucker performing admirably. Head coach Todd Bowles has already said that all three running backs will see the field when White is healthy, a bad omen for us DFSers. While it’s impossible to trust any back on Tampa right now, White is falling through the cracks a bit too much on DraftKings. He is less expensive than Irving, but the field is still hesitant to back White on Monday, as he’s only projected to be in 20.4% of lineups despite his decreasing $5,700 price tag. Considering he’s appearing in 24% of the top 300 lineups, the field is lower on White than it should be.
Wide Receiver: Sterling Shepard – $3,400
If White wasn’t ugly enough, here’s your trash pick of the week, so please skip to the tight end section if you don’t enjoy diving in dumpsters like I do.
With only two games in play, finding standout contrarian value can oftentimes be difficult. The field is a lot sharper now than it was even a few years ago, and most of the time when players are lower owned they are so for a reason. That being said, players can still slip by the masses, and Buccaneers wideout Sterling Shepard fits that mold.
Shepard has a long history with Mayfield, and in three full games this season he’s hauled in seven passes for 78 yards and one touchdown. That is not spectacular production, but on a slate with limited value, Shepard’s $3,400 price tag can do wonders for lineup construction. As of this writing, Shepard is popping in Stokastic’s Sims: He shows up in 28% of the highest-ROI lineups, but only 10.3% of lineups are expected to roster him, giving him the most leverage of any receiver in the pool.
Tight End: Will Dissly – $2,800
For only a two-game slate, the tight end position actually looks pretty decent tonight. Each of the four teams has a tight end who could realistically be the top scorer at the position, and as such ownership is pretty spread out. Trey McBride and Cade Otton are getting the most love, and considering their respective roles, that makes a lot of sense. Though Chargers tight end Will Dissly doesn’t have the same pedigree as McBride or even Otton, he is in a fantastic spot tonight matched up with the Cardinals. With fellow Los Angeles tight end Hayden Hurst not expected to play tonight, Dissly is way too cheap at $2,800 on DraftKings.
As of this writing, Dissly is the highest-leveraged tight end on the slate, appearing in 38% of top-300 lineups while only 21.6% of lineups are expected to roster him.
Defense/Special Teams: Ravens – $2,900
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