Week 3 of the NFL season caps off with a Monday night double-header featuring Jacksonville at Buffalo and Washington at Cincinnati. Using Stokastic’s tools, we’re diving into the player pool to uncover the best NFL DFS contrarian picks for Week 3 MNF.
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NFL DFS Contrarian Picks for Week 3 MNF: Best MNF Picks
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Quarterback: Trevor Lawrence (JAX) – $5,700
On a slate with Josh Allen, Joe Burrow and rookie Jayden Daniels, it’s not all that surprising that Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence is falling through the cracks for DFS purposes. Lawrence comes into Week 3 averaging only 12.3 fantasy points per game, and he’s mostly struggled out of the gate. Priced at only $5,700 tonight on DraftKings, however, Lawrence isn’t getting as much love from the field as he should. According to Stokastic’s NFL Boom/Bust Tool, Lawrence currently has a 11.52% chance of being optimal when this slate plays out on DraftKings. With only 9.9% of lineups actually expected to roster him, Lawrence is the top contrarian quarterback on the board.
Running Back: Ray Davis (BUF) – $4,300
If you play CFB DFS, there’s a good chance you’re familiar with Bills rookie running back Ray Davis. Davis was a monster at Kentucky last year, and his 5-foot-8, 220-pound stature profiles as a perfect complement to James Cook in Buffalo’s backfield. Through two games, Davis has 12 carries for 42 yards, and he’s trusted enough to serve as Cook’s primary backup. He may not have slate-breaking upside, but he’s projected to be optimal 2.22% of the time this slate happens. With only 0.7% of lineups expected to roster him, it’s easy to get over the field on Davis in large-field GPPs.
Wide Receiver: Mack Hollins (BUF) – $3,100
Sticking with the Bills, veteran wideout Mack Hollins profiles as one of the best differentiators on the board. Though he didn’t catch his only target in last Thursday’s 31-10 win over Miami, Buffalo’s passing game wasn’t needed much since Buffalo’s four touchdowns came courtesy of three scores from Cook and a pick-6 by the defense. Needless to say, if the game had been closer, it’s likely that Josh Allen and would have thrown the ball much more.
While Hollins is competing for targets with a bunch of receivers who have similar skill sets, a defined pecking order has yet to be established in Buffalo’s overhauled wide receiver room. Hollins has a cheap $3,100 price tag on DraftKings, yet he is only projected to be 3.5% owned. Considering he has a 6.56% chance of being optimal, that is not enough ownership.
Tight End: Drew Sample (CIN) – $2,500
Dumpster diving like this is how the cookie tends to crumble on a two-game NFL slate. Though Drew Sample is far from a fantasy superstar, he did catch three passes for 28 yards last week, and he’s getting completely forgotten about despite a cheap $2,500 price tag. Dalton Kincaid and Mike Gesicki are better plays on paper, but Kincaid himself is only averaging 4.7 fantasy points per game, while Gesicki has shown flashes and then fades out for what seems like a decade.
Though it’s more likely that Sample puts up a 0 than anything GPP-winning, his $2,500 price tag opens doors to roster construction.
Defense/Special Teams: Commanders – $2,500
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