The NFL season continues on Friday night with a Week 1 NFC showdown between the Packers and Eagles. Leveraging Stokastic’s tools, we’ll explore the player pool to identify the most impactful Friday night NFL DFS contrarian picks and stacks.
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NFL DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Best Packers-Eagles Plays for Friday
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NFL DFS Contrarian Captain: Jayden Reed
Stokastic’s Captain Optimal %
DraftKings: 15.5%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $9,600
Similar to last night’s Ravens-Chiefs game, both the Packers and Eagles come into the 2024 season with high expectations. While both teams are filled with talented playmakers, the quarterbacks are expected to be slightly higher owned than Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson were last night. As of this writing, Jordan Love and Jalen Hurts are projected to be a combined 141.4% owned on DraftKings. Though there’s no arguing that Love and Hurts are the top two projected players on the slate, that leaves multiple players to look at for contrarian options.
Considering the Packers are about as deep at wide receiver as any team in the NFL, it makes sense that the field is having a hard time distinguishing between them on DraftKings. Jayden Reed is projected to be the highest owned of the bunch at 25.6% in the Flex (but just 5% at Captain), and both Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs are coming in with similar 27.3% and 23.8% ownership projections, respectively. Dontayvion Wicks is also getting some love, with none of them separating from the pack.
While there’s reason to like all of Green Bay’s wideouts, getting Reed the ball is a clear priority for the Packers when he’s on the field. Reed drew targets on a team-high 23.1% of routes last season while also adding 11 carries for 119 yards and two touchdowns over 16 regular-season games last season. Though there’s some concern with how much Reed will play in 12 personnel with two tight ends, his upside is undeniable, and the field is sleeping on him as a Captain on DraftKings.
NFL DFS Contrarian Utility Play: Jake Elliot
Stokastic’s Utility Optimal %
DraftKings: 33.1%
Ownership Projection
DraftKings: 20.4%
As much as there is to like about the Green Bay’s offense and the Packers weapons, the Packers are in a tough spot traveling to face the Eagles in a ‘home’ game in Brazil. Both defenses will be tested, as the Vegas total of 49.5 points suggests a higher-scoring affair.
The Eagles are currently 2-point favorites, and this is a massive test for a Philadelphia defense that was much maligned last season, a year after almost beating Kansas City in the Super Bowl. With longtime defensive stalwart Vic Fangio now running the Eagles defense, expect a much tougher test for Jordan Love and co. All that being said, the DSTs and kickers are much lower owned than we normally see on Showdown slates, and Eagles kicker Jake Elliot has emerged as the top contrarian play on the board.
Elliot averaged 8.9 DraftKings points per game last season, and he’s generally seen as one of the better kickers in the NFL. While he doesn’t quite have the stature of a Justin Tucker, Elliot’s upside is about as high as any kicker in football. There are no concerns with Philadelphia’s offense being able to move the ball downfield, and head coach Nick Siriani will often trot Elliot out for extremely long kicks. His ceiling isn’t as high as most of the skill position players on this slate, but his $5,000 price tag creates some flexibility for roster construction.
Elliot is projected to be optimal as a Utility play 33.1% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings. However, only 20.4% of lineups are currently projected to roster him.
Other Contrarian Players to Consider
Tucker Kraft, Jahan Dotson, Kenneth Gainwell
