Week 5 of the NFL season kicks off on Thursday night with an NFC South showdown between the Buccaneers and Falcons. Using Stokastic’s tools, we’re diving into the player pool to uncover the best NFL DFS contrarian picks for Week 5 TNF.
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NFL DFS Contrarian Picks Week 5 TNF: Best Buccaneers-Falcons Picks
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NFL DFS TNF Contrarian Captain: Baker Mayfield
Stokastic’s Captain Optimal Percentage
DraftKings: 6.9%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $9,600
Unlike most showdown slates where there are plenty of contrarian plays to choose from, almost every player on tonight’s slate is coming in either appropriately or over-owned. Only a few players are currently showing up with positive leverage, making roster construction a key to getting unique tonight. Rostering Baker Mayfield at Captain is an interesting way to do that, as the Buccaneers quarterback is currently projected to be the highest-owned player in the Flex but fifth-highest owned at Captain.
The former No. 1 overall pick is averaging 22.7 DraftKings points per game on the heels of 984 passing yards, eight passing touchdowns and only two interceptions. Mayfield is coming off one of the best games of his career, throwing for 347 yards and two touchdowns while rushing for another score en route to putting up 31.9 DraftKings points in a throttling of the Eagles. Considering his ownership as a Flex play, it’s a bit surprising the field isn’t prioritizing Mayfield more as a Captain, and rostering him there is a solid way to get a bit different without sacrificing much, if any, upside.
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NFL DFS TNF Contrarian Utility Pick: Sterling Shepard
Stokastic’s Utility Optimal Percentage
DraftKings: 15.2%
Ownership Projection
DraftKings: 13.3%
Value plays and contrarian plays are both hard to come by on this particular slate, so finding a player that is both cheap and contrarian is extra appealing. Newly minted Buccaneers wide receiver Sterling Shepard fits both of those bills, as the field is sleeping on him despite a cheap $1,600 price tag on DraftKings. Shepard was elevated to Tampa Bay’s active roster ahead of their Week 4 win and ended up playing 47 snaps on offense and catching three of five targets for 51 yards. Considering the rapport Shepard already has with Mayfield, it wouldn’t be surprising to see his role continue to grow as he gets more acclimated with Tampa’s offense.
Taking a stroll down narrative street for second, it’s easy to see why Shepard already looked like one of Mayfield’s favorite targets last week. Mayfield and Shepard were teammates at Oklahoma in 2014 and 2015, and in 2015 the two connected on 86 passes for 1,288 yards and 11 touchdowns. While I’m not sure how much those numbers mean in the year 2024, it certainly doesn’t make me like Shepard any less at $1,600 when he’s not getting any love.
Shepard is projected to be optimal as a Utility play 15.2% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings. However, only 13.3% of lineups are currently projected to roster him.
Other NFL DFS Contrarian Picks for Week 5 TNF
Buccaneers DST, Tyler Allgeier, Falcons DST
