Week 3 of the NFL season kicks off on Thursday night with another AFC East showdown between the Patriots and Jets. Using Stokastic’s tools, we’re diving into the player pool to uncover the best NFL DFS contrarian picks for Week 3 TNF.
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NFL DFS Contrarian Picks for Week 3 TNF: Best Patriots-Jets Picks
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NFL DFS TNF Contrarian Captain: Rhamondre Stevenson
Stokastic’s Captain Optimal %
DraftKings: 12.1%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $11,400
This year expectations for the Patriots and Jets are wildly different. With Aaron Rodgers finally healthy, the Jets have been hyped as an AFC contender for months. The story is the opposite in New England, where first year head coach Jerod Mayo has taken over the reins from Bill Belichick. Needless to say, expectations were low for New England heading into the season. All that being said, both the Patriots and Jets sit with the exact same 1-1 record.
Despite an impressive win against the Bengals and then taking the Seahawks to overtime, the Patriots are still much lower than the Jets in the eyes of the field. This is showing up in ownership on DraftKings, as both Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson are projected to be the two highest-owned players on the slate. Hall and Wilson are currently combining for 48.7% ownership at the Captain spot alone. With Hall and Wilson getting so much ownership, the Patriots’ Mr. Do Everything Rhamondre Stevenson isn’t getting the love he deserves.
Stevenson is averaging 20.8 DraftKings points per game while getting a combined 46 rushing attempts over the Patriots’ first two games. Though he has struggled a bit to produce as a receiver, he was phenomenal in that role last season, and the most the Patriots have trailed by all year is 4 points. If and when New England gets down, expect to see quarterback Jacoby Brissett look Stevenson’s way early and often in the passing game. Despite Stevenson’s clear upside on a slate without a ton of playmakers, he’s only projected to be in the Captain slot in 10.7% of lineups, compared to his 12.1% Captain optimal percentage.
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NFL DFS TNF Contrarian Utility Pick: Greg Zuerlein
Stokastic’s Utility Optimal %
DraftKings: 35.6%
Ownership Projection
DraftKings: 25.6%
Kickers have been surprisingly resourceful for DFS purposes through the early part of the NFL season, and that trend should continue tonight in a game with one of the lowest point totals of the week. While touchdowns will always reign supreme on showdown slates, kickers provide a floor/ceiling combination that is rarely matched by others in their price range. Despite the success of kickers so far this season, Jets kicker Greg Zuerlein is falling through the cracks on DraftKings.
The opportunity cost of rostering a kicker in a Showdown slate on DraftKings lies in the fact that you can only select six players. In a game with a such a low total, however, the opportunity cost isn’t as drastic, with kickers and defenses looking even better than they normally would. Though Zuerlein hasn’t had a great start to the season, much of that has been the Jets’ inability to move the ball downfield with any consistency. Expect that to change as the season progresses, with the Jets relying on the veteran kicker in spots like this.
Zuerlein is projected to be optimal as a Utility play 35.6% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings. However, only 25.6% of lineups are currently projected to roster him.
Other NFL DFS Contrarian Picks for Week 3 TNF
Patriots DST, Tyler Conklin, Antonio Gibson, Xavier Gipson
