Week 2 of the NFL season kicks off on Thursday night with an AFC East showdown between the Bills and Dolphins. Leveraging Stokastic’s tools, we’ll explore the player pool to identify the most impactful NFL DFS contrarian picks for Week 2 TNF.
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NFL DFS Contrarian Picks for Week 2 TNF: Best Bills-Dolphins Plays
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NFL DFS TNF Contrarian Captain: Tua Tagovailoa
Stokastic’s Captain Optimal %
DraftKings: 8.9%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $4,800
While both the Bills and Dolphins emerged from Week 1 victorious, neither looked clean in home wins against Arizona and Jacksonville. That said, both teams are 1-0 with a chance to put another impressive win on their resume.
Although there’s no shortage of playmakers between these two teams, Josh Allen and Tyreek Hill are always going to be top priorities. That’s represented in ownership, as Hill and Allen are currently projected to be in a combined 136.2% of lineups between the Captain and Flex spots on DraftKings.
While there’s plenty of reason to just lock in Hill or Allen at Captain, using Tua Tagovailoa there provides a different type of lineup construction that most people won’t be utilizing. Getting different in large-field GPPs is just as important as projections, considering the number of dupes we see on Showdown slates. Though Tagovailoa’s 8.9% Captain optimal percentage isn’t close to Hill or Allen’s, both of those players are getting significant ownership, while only 7.3% of lineups are expected to Captain Tagovailoa.
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NFL DFS TNF Contrarian Utility Pick: Tyler Bass
Stokastic’s Utility Optimal %
DraftKings: 23.6%
Ownership Projection
DraftKings: 18.1%
Kickers have been good to us to start the season, and after Jake Moody went crazy on Monday Night Football, it’s only right to run it back with another kicker tonight. Given the low-scoring games we’ve seen to start the season, it makes sense that kickers have been a huge part of the Showdown story so far. Even with Jordan Mason having a career night in his first start on Monday night, Moody ended up as the highest-scoring 49er, going 6-for-6 on field goal attempts, including a 53-yarder.
As offenses continue to get behind the sticks and come out of the gates slower than most defenses, kickers are going to be relied on more heavily than they otherwise normally would be. While it’s unlikely Bills kicker Tyler Bass puts up anything close to what Moody scored on Monday night, he’s still not getting the love he should be getting.
The opportunity cost of rostering a kicker in a Showdown slate on DraftKings lies in the fact that you can only select six players. Since skill position players and quarterbacks generally offer the highest upside, many players avoid using spots for kickers and defenses. With stars like Hill and Allen standing out, Bass offers immediate salary relief without compromising floor. Upside is the goal in GPPs, but Bass’ value comes from the high-upside players you can afford to roster alongside him.
Bas is projected to be optimal as a Utility play 23.6% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings. However, only 18.1% of lineups are currently projected to roster him.
Other NFL DFS Contrarian Picks for Week 2 TNF
Dolphins DST, Mack Hollins, Bills DST
