Week 11 kicks off with an old-fashioned rivalry as Russell Wilson and the Steelers head to Cleveland for a matchup with Myles Garrett and the Browns. With nasty weather expected in Cleveland, expect the unexpected when it comes to the Browns. Using Stokastic’s tools, let’s dive into the player pool to uncover the best NFL DFS contrarian picks for Week 12 TNF.
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NFL DFS Contrarian Picks Week 12 TNF: Best Steelers-Browns Picks
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Wondering how it works? See it in action as the Single-Lineup Simulator breaks down a Steelers-Browns DraftKings lineup for Week 12, offering insights perfect for Steelers-Browns TNF. Ready to get started? Choose from our Lite, Core or Max NFL packages and start optimizing your lineups today!
NFL DFS TNF Contrarian Captain: David Njoku (CLE)
Stokastic’s Captain Optimal Percentage
DraftKings: 13.9%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $7,600
As a lifelong Browns fan, there hasn’t been much to get excited about this season. From the disaster that is Deshaun Watson to the trade of Amari Cooper, it’s hard to believe that this same team made the playoffs in 2023 with Joe Flacco as its quarterback. While the Browns defense has clearly taken a step back, Jameis Winston has provided some stability behind center, taking Cleveland’s offense to Flacco-like heights. Among Winston’s top weapons is tight end David Njoku, and after struggling for much of the season when Watson was behind center, he’s been back to his productive ways with Winston throwing him the rock.
Njoku is averaging only 12.4 DraftKings points per game, but he’s been much better recently, recording 16.92 DraftKings points per game over Cleveland’s past four games. Though the Browns have struggled as a whole, Winston is capable of moving the ball on pretty much any defense, and expect him to pepper Njoku with targets against a stingy Steelers unit on Thursday night.
Njoku is showing up as Captain 26% of the time in the 300 highest-ROI lineups, but only 7.7% of lineups are expected to roster him there.
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NFL DFS TNF Contrarian Flex Pick: Jaylen Warren (PIT)
Stokastic’s Flex Optimal Percentage
DraftKings: 33.8%
Ownership Projection
DraftKings: 28.6%
Unlike on some previous Showdown slates we’ve had recently, neither the Browns nor the Steelers are loaded with high-ceiling playmakers. George Pickens probably most fits that mold, but with nasty weather and Denzel Ward coverage, it’s not the most optimal spot for Pickens and the Steelers’ outside passing game. That said, much like I expect Winston to be checking down a bunch to Njoku, the Steelers are likely to deploy a similar strategy, with Jaylen Warren perhaps the biggest beneficiary.
After coming into the season with a lot of hype, Warren has been more solid than spectacular this season. Warren is averaging only 6.9 DraftKings points per game, but like Njoku, he’s been better recently. After back-to-back weeks of 10-plus fantasy points, the Steelers are clearly trying to get Warren more involved in their offense, especially considering he had one of the best games any running back had all season against the Browns last year.
Warren is currently the second-most leveraged play in both Stokastic’s Sims, behind only Njoku. As of this writing, Warren appears in 47% of top-300 lineups on DraftKings against just 29.5% ownership.
Other NFL DFS Contrarian Picks for Week 12 TNF
Nick Chubb, Browns DST, Van Jefferson
