Week 11 of the NFL season wraps up with a meeting at Jerry World as C.J. Stroud and the Texans travel 240 miles north for a matchup with CeeDee Lamb and the Cowboys. Using Stokastic’s powerful tools, we’re diving deep into the player pool to identify the best contrarian NFL DFS picks for this Monday Night Football showdown.
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NFL DFS Contrarian Picks for Week 11 MNF: Best Texans-Cowboys Plays
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NFL DFS MNF Contrarian Captain: Rico Dowdle
Stokastic’s Captain Top-300 Exposure
DraftKings: 12.0%
Ownership Projection
DraftKings: 7.1%
When the NFL originally released its schedule, it was fair to presume that both Dallas and Houston would be in contention as the season hit Week 11. Dallas was favored by 3 points in the lookahead line for this game, and we’ve come a long way with Houston settled in as a 7.5-point road favorite on Monday Night.
With Dak Prescott out for the season, the 3-6 Cowboys are being written off for dead, and few expect them to win tonight against a formidable Texans team. That said, Houston has undoubtedly regressed this season, and even with Cooper Rush behind center, the Cowboys have clear paths to stay competitive on Monday night.
One of those paths is behind running back Rico Dowdle, who is currently coming in as the most under-owned Captain per Stokastic’s NFL DFS Sims. Dowdle comes into Week 11 averaging only 12 DraftKings points per game, but he should see that number continue to rise every week he’s the Cowboys’ lead back. With Dallas operating with a committee approach to its backfield this season, there’s plenty of meat left on the bone at Dowdle’s $9,000 price tag, and he’s falling through the cracks a bit on DraftKings.
Otton appears in 12% of the top 300 lineups according to simulated ROI, but only 7.1% of the field projects to roster him in that slot.
NFL DFS MNF Contrarian Utility Pick: Ka’imi Fairbairn
Stokastic’s Utility Top-300 Exposure
DraftKings: 42.3%
Ownership Projection
DraftKings: 28.8%
Kickers have been a staple in this article for much of the season, and as the old saying goes, “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.” Though the field has caught up a bit after kickers were optimal for many of the early season primetime games, it hasn’t caught up enough, and Texans kicker Ka’imi Fairbairn stands out in a big way from a leverage perspective at $5,400 on DraftKings.
Fairbairn comes into Week 11 averaging 11.7 DraftKings points per game, and he’s unquestionably been one of the better kickers in the NFL this season. Despite his consistent production, the field is still not getting to him at the rate it should be on DraftKings.
With a 42.3% appearance rate in top-300 lineups as a Flex, Fairbairn is projected to be rostered by just 28.8% of the field. This massive ownership differential makes him currently the strongest leverage play on the slate.
Other NFL DFS Contrarian Picks for Week 11 MNF
- Xavier Hutchinson
- Cade Stover
- Luke Schoonmaker
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Here’s a preview of how the simulator tackles a Texans-Cowboys lineup for Week 11’s Monday Night Football slate on DraftKings. Ready to step up your game? Subscribe to our Lite, Core or Max NFL packages and take the first step toward boosting your lineup ROI today!
