Believe or not, Week 10 of the NFL season is upon us. Unlike some previous Thursday Night Football games, we’ve got a banger this week, with Joe Burrow and the Bengals traveling to Baltimore for a matchup with Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. Using Stokastic’s tools, let’s dive into the player pool to uncover the best NFL DFS contrarian picks for Week 10 TNF.
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NFL DFS Contrarian Picks Week 10 TNF: Best Bengals-Ravens Picks
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NFL DFS TNF Contrarian Captain: Mark Andrews (BAL)
Stokastic’s Captain Optimal Percentage
DraftKings: 4.2%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $4,200
The last time the Ravens played the Bengals, the teams scored 79 total points in a 41-38 Baltimore win in Cincinnati. That Week 5 showdown was probably the best game of the season so far for DFS purposes, and there’s plenty of reason to think tonight’s contest produces a similar outcome. With plenty of offensive pieces to like from both sides of this game, it’s only natural that a few players are falling through the cracks on DraftKings. Atop that list lies Ravens tight end Mark Andrews, and the Oklahoma product is the top contrarian Captain play on the board.
Andrews comes into Week 10 averaging only 8.5 DraftKings points per game. Much of that mediocre production can be attributed to an extremely slow start to the season, however, as Andrews was returning from a gruesome ankle injury he suffered in Week 11 last season. With fellow tight end Isaiah Likely out tonight with an injury of his own, Andrews is far too cheap on DraftKings at $4,200 and the field is still not getting to him at nearly the rate they should be.
Andrews currently projects to be optimal as a Captain 8.5% of the time this slate plays out but only 5.1% of lineups are expected to roster him there. Stokastic’s Sims are even higher on Andrews as a Captain, as he’s showing up in 14.7% of my top 300 lineups.
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NFL DFS TNF Contrarian Flex Pick: Mike Gesicki (CIN)
Stokastic’s Flex Optimal Percentage
DraftKings: 39.4%
Ownership Projection
DraftKings: 30.6%
Truth be told, Gesicki was a huge part of my $100,000 winning lineup this past Sunday, so he’s definitely on my good side. That said, numbers are unbiased, and Gesicki currently grades out as by far the top leverage play on the slate. With Tee Higgins sidelined for the Bengals, Gesicki has emerged as Joe Burrow’s top target behind Ja’Marr Chase, and with a quarterback as good as Burrow, it’s not all that surprising to see a player as talented as Gesicki thriving. Despite his recent spike in production, the field isn’t completely buying it yet, as Gesicki is projected to be the most under owned player on DraftKings.
Unlike plenty of other recent Showdown slates, both the Ravens and Bengals are filled with players that are desirable to roster in DFS. Though Gesicki might be 50% owned if the Bengals were facing another team in this spot, the amount of Ravens that project well in this spot makes it extremely hard to load up on Cincinnati. While it’s not as if the field isn’t getting to Gesicki in this spot, his 30.6% projected ownership could seem foolishly low by the time this game is over.
Gesicki is currently the most leveraged play in both Stokastic’s Tools and Stokastic’s Sims. As of this writing, Gesicki is projected to be optimal 39.4% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings, and he’s showing up in 56% of my top 300 lineups sorted by ROI in Stokastic’s Sims.
Other NFL DFS Contrarian Picks for Week 10 TNF
Justin Tucker, Tanner Hudson, Charlie Kolar, Kendric Pryor
