Week 1 of the NFL season concludes on Monday night with a showdown between the Jets and 49ers. Leveraging Stokastic’s tools, we’ll explore the player pool to identify the most impactful NFL DFS contrarian picks for Week 1 MNF.
In NFL DFS tournaments, success often depends on making your lineup stand out. To gain an edge, you need to incorporate unique, contrarian picks. Subscribe today and unlock premium resources like our Lineup Generator, our NFL DFS Sims and the BEST NFL DFS projections and NFL DFS ownership projections available.
NFL DFS Contrarian Picks for Week 1 MNF: Best Jets-49ers Plays
NFL DFS MNF Contrarian Captain: Jake Moody
Stokastic’s Captain Optimal %
DraftKings: 3.1%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $4,800
As was the case with the other Week 1 primetime games, both the Jets and 49ers come into the 2024 season with high expectations. While both teams are filled with talented playmakers, Christian McCaffrey is always the bell of the ball on any Showdown slate he’s on. That’s represented in ownership, as McCaffrey is currently projected to be in 71% of lineups between the Captain and Flex spots on DraftKings. With McCaffrey looking so good from a raw points perspective, finding a couple of cheap players to pair with him can pay huge dividends on a slate with other good spend-up options like Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson.
With the NFL cutting back from four to three preseason games, and many players not playing at all in the preseason, it’s no surprise Week 1 has been filled with some ugly contests. Using Showdown as a barometer, that ugliness can easily be put into some context: Kickers have been optimal in three games (Steelers-Falcons, Panthers-Saints, Cowboys-Browns) and DST has been optimal in two games (Vikings-Giants, Titans-Bears). This isn’t to say that tonight’s game is guaranteed to be sloppy, but it’s undeniable that plenty of teams have come out of the gates with some rust. With both the Jets and 49ers expected to have two of the best defenses in football, it wouldn’t be surprising at all to see this game take on a lower-scoring feel.
While there’s reason to like pretty much all of the playmakers on this slate, 49ers kickers Jake Moody‘s $4,800 price tag opens up doors to roster construction. Moody is trusted with long field goal attempts, and while San Francisco’s offense is good enough to move the ball downfield, the Jets defense is also good enough to keep it out of the end zone. Though Moody only projects to be optimal as a Captain 3.1% of the time this slate plays out, the field still isn’t getting to him enough, with only 1.7% of lineups expected to Captain him.
NFL DFS MNF Contrarian Utility Pick: Greg Zuerlein
Stokastic’s Utility Optimal %
DraftKings: 29.2%
Ownership Projection
DraftKings: 19.3%
Embracing the whole ugliness vibe, Jets kicker Greg Zuerlein is the top overall contrarian play on the slate. Zuerlein looks a lot like Moody does in this spot. Though Moody is slightly preferred in the Captain spot, Zuerlein is projected to be massively under-owned as a Flex play despite his cheap $4,400 price tag.
The opportunity cost in rostering a kicker on a Showdown slate simply comes from the fact that any one lineup on DraftKings can only contain six players. With skill position players and quarterbacks always holding the most upside, the field is hesitant to use roster spots on kickers and defenses. Considering the expected game environment tonight and the price tags of the players up top, Zuerlein provides instant salary relief without sacrificing any floor. Upside is always the goal in GPPs; however, Zuerlein’s upside comes from the players you can roster with him.
Zuerlein is projected to be optimal as a Utility play 29.2% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings. However, only 19.3% of lineups are currently projected to roster him.
Other NFL DFS Contrarian Picks for Week 1 MNF
49ers DST, Jets DST, Malachi Corley, Ronnie Bell
