Super Bowl Sunday is finally here — well, almost — I’m posting this article on Friday. Let’s get into my NFL DFS captain strategy and picks for Super Bowl 58 showdown contests, including contrarian players like Rashee Rice and George Kittle. Need more NFL DFS advice? Subscribe today for access to our industry-leading resources, including our lineup generator (available for NFL, NBA, MLB and PGA), our DFS simulation tools (available for NFL, NBA, MLB, PGA and MMA) and our industry-leading projections for every sport.
Super Bowl 58 DFS Picks: Top Captain Plays | Rashee Rice, George Kittle & More
NFL DFS Captain Strategy for Super Bowl 58
With the Kansas City Chiefs meeting the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl LVIII, the two best teams in football will do battle on center stage to fight for the Lombardi Trophy. From an NFL DFS perspective, there are really strong plays from both San Francisco and Kansas City.
On a lot of showdown slates, one team ends up looking far superior to the other. That clearly isn’t the case in this game, however, and roster construction decisions will have to be made with so many good players to choose from and roster spots at a premium.
NFL DFS Super Bowl 58 Captain Picks: Top Contrarian Options
Rashee Rice
DraftKings Salary: $7,600
DraftKings Projection 16.29
As mentioned above, any game featuring the Chiefs and 49ers is going to have more good plays than there are roster spots available. Knowing that, it makes sense that some really good players and coming in underowned, with name-brand stars like Patrick Mahomes and Christian McCaffrey extremely hard to get away from.
However, the top-heavy nature of this player pool means that other expensive players won’t get as much love as they normally would. In that vein, Rashee Rice stands out as an elite tournament building block with the field not getting to him at nearly the rate they should be.
With many people expected to take a stars-and-scrubs-like approach to their lineups, Rice is falling through the cracks on DraftKings. Despite projecting to be optimal as a captain 12.5% of the time this slate plays out, Rice is only expected to be captained in 9.9% of lineups. He looks just as good as a flex play, where Rice is projected to be optimal a whopping 45.5% of the time on Sunday. With only 38.6% of the field expected to roster him in a flex spot, Rice offers nice leverage no matter where you put him.
George Kittle
DraftKings Salary: $6,400
DraftKings Projection: 12.42
Continuing with the against-the-grain theme of this article, George Kittle stands out as arguably the top NFL DFS captain pick on DraftKings at $6,400 for tournaments. Although he’s been pretty boom or bust this season, Stokastic’s tools have Kittle tied with Rashee Rice as the highest-graded leverage play on the slate.
Despite being priced all the way down as the ninth-most expensive player on the slate, Kittle still isn’t getting prioritized, and there is a lot to like about him both as a captain and in the flex.
As of this writing, Kittle is projected to be only 6.6% owned in the captain spot on DraftKings. Compare that to his captain-optimal percentage of 12.5%, and it makes sense why I’m so high on him for tournament purposes.
Similarly, in the flex, Kittle is projected to be optimal 37.3% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings. With only 30.2% of lineups projected to roster him, Kittle is worth getting over the field in tournaments of all sizes.
This lineup, generated using our industry-leading lineup generator, demonstrates the optimality of a George Kittle-captained lineup, which also happens to feature Rashee Rice and Jake Moody in the mix. If you’re interested in taking the lineup generator for a spin yourself, sign up for Stokastic’s premium tools today! The tool currently supports NFL, NBA, MLB and PGA DFS contests.
Jake Moody
DraftKings Salary: $5,200
DraftKings Projection: 9.69
If Kittle wasn’t cheap enough for you, an even less expensive Jake Moody also stands out as one of the top tournament plays at captain on the slate. Although rostering a kicker as a captain might seem suboptimal with so many good plays on the board, there are plenty of universes in which this game is a low-scoring battle and Moody has to kick it through the uprights with frequency.
Spending down at captain is the easiest way to free up more salary for the flex spots. Unsurprisingly, the field is hesitant to roster Moody as a captain with so many star-studded options priced above him.
Stokastic’s tools don’t see it that way, however, as he’s projected to be optimal 5.3% of the time this game happens. With only 3.3% of lineups expected to roster him as a captain, Moody is a sneaky way to free up salary with the field uninterested in going there. Moody also looks great as a flex play as he’s projected to be optimal at a 25.5% clip with only 22.6 of the field projected to roster him.
Stokastic’s NFL Tools & Expert Advice
Still need more NFL DFS advice? The rest of our expert articles are loaded with advice here to help, but even our experts need tools, and that’s what a subscription to Stokastic will get you! Subscribe today for access to our industry-leading resources, including our lineup generator (available for NFL, NBA, MLB and PGA), our DFS simulation tools (available for NFL, NBA, MLB, PGA and MMA) and our industry-leading projections for every sport.
