We have another one, folks. These big DFS wins don’t stop — six figures and up, we’re talking. The latest was a Dec. 2 first-place finish in DraftKings’ $300K GPP, a narrow 0.25-fantasy point win to earn them $100,000! So let’s get into some of the NBA DFS tools and strategy they used — and explain why you need to get your behind Stokastic’s Sims tools, NBA DFS projections and NBA DFS ownership projections if you’re not cashing in at this point.
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NBA DFS Tools: How to Turn a Few DraftKings Entries Into $100K
The Post-Contest Simulator — which, if you don’t know, is a fantastic tool for analyzing your lineups after the fact — lets us compare pre-contest simulations with actual post-contest results. And let’s just say, this lineup didn’t just meet expectations; it exceeded them.
Note that this lineup simulated pre-contest to have a strong 71.9% ROI. That, of course, is well behind the 555,455.6% ROI it ultimately returned, but it does indicate that this $100,000-winning lineup was a darling of the Sims prior to the slate.
For instance, Josh Giddey, Keon Johnson, Jayson Tatum, Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Derrick White were all top values at their position in Pre-Contest Sims. Giddey, White and Yves Missi provided the modest ownership, while Jaquez, Keon Johnson and Jalen Johnson were deserved chalk.
The interesting part here is that Johnson was so widely owned that his overall ROI for the whole contest was actually pretty negative since he only gave the field 8 points and a few assists and rebounds. But a winning lineup can handle that mediocre chalk when A) the rest of the field joins in, and B) it’s cheap chalk.
The Missi move was a great one since he only went 6.2% owned, so the Sims threw him in despite having pretty strongly negative ROI in Pre-Contest Sims. Ultimately, Missi had the highest ROI of any player since his ownership was lower and he dropped a 23-point, 12-rebound double-double.
Here are a couple of other things to note. One, this lineup’s 218.7% ownership sum seems shockingly low given the number of chalk pieces in it. That’s basically middle of the pack; but hey, such is the nature of a small slate like this — a lot of folks go in the same direction. The other thing, though, is that no one else went in this direction. There were no dupes on this lineup that had quite a few of the highest-rostered players on the slate. Thus dehrlich22 got that solo first by the slimmest of margins.
Since they won by 0.25 fantasy points, you would think dehrlich22 and second place had a lot of the same players, right? Well, you would be wrong. The only players in common were Giddey, Jaquez and Jalen Johnson, and second place actually had far less total ownership (175.1%). But our friend pulled it out — 17 total entries led to them bagging a cool $100,000.
If you’re ready to level up and join them — as well as Stokastic’s pros who also use these tools — now’s the time to sign up for a Stokastic+ NBA package! Check out our NBA subscriptions guide for all the details on each pricing tier.
