The 2024 NBA season tips off with an exciting slate on Tuesday, featuring star-studded matchups and a lot of options for strong NBA DFS lineups. As you gear up for this first slate of the season, it’s crucial to dive deep into Stokastic’s NBA DFS projections and ownership to find leverage on the field. In this breakdown, we’ll utilize Stokastic’s industry-leading NBA DFS Sims to uncover optimal NBA DFS picks for Oct. 22, helping you make informed decisions that set your lineups apart. Let’s take a deep dive into the Sims data, exposing the top plays and sneaky leverage opportunities.
NBA DFS Week Projections, Ownership, Leverage & More
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Top NBA DFS Sims Exposures
In the latest Stokastic NBA DFS Sims run, these five players had the highest exposure rates:
- Jrue Holiday – 66%
- Naz Reid – 65%
- O.G. Anunoby – 64%
- Miles McBride – 64%
- Josh Hart – 62.7%
These players are being projected for high involvement across the slate, making them core targets in many lineups. Holiday’s role in Boston’s backcourt makes him particularly appealing, while Reid brings immense value as a mid-tier play for a Minnesota team that is now lacking Karl-Anthony Towns‘ size.
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
Understanding where the field is gravitating helps you pivot to more contrarian plays. Here are the top NBA DFS ownership projections for the Oct. 22 slate:
- Josh Hart – 58.9%
- Miles McBride – 55.3%
- Karl-Anthony Towns – 47.6%
- Naz Reid – 44.8%
- Jayson Tatum – 44.4%
Top NBA DFS Leverage Plays
Leverage plays are critical in NBA DFS, especially when looking to gain an edge in GPPs. According to the Sims, these players are getting more exposure in high-ROI lineups than the field expects:
- Jrue Holiday – +33.9%
- O.G. Anunoby – +31.6%
- Austin Reaves – +20.6%
- Naz Reid – +20%
- Derrick White – +17.8%
Players to Fade: Low ROI in Sims
Not every high-ownership player is worth locking into your lineups. Based on Stokastic’s Sims, here are the players we’re getting to less often, with negative ROI in top lineups:
- Payton Pritchard – -21.1%
- Rudy Gobert – -14.6%
- Al Horford – -14.6%
- Rui Hachimura – -10.5%
- Jaylen Brown – -10%
Top NBA DFS Values
If you’re looking to balance your lineups with value plays, these players are projected to deliver the best points-per-dollar value:
- Jayson Tatum – 49.96 Fantasy Points
- Karl-Anthony Towns – 42.48 Fantasy Points
- LeBron James – 47.72 Fantasy Points
- Anthony Davis – 49.97 Fantasy Points
- Jalen Brunson – 45.98 Fantasy Points
Optimal Lineup for October 22 Based on Sims
According to the Sims, this optimal lineup maximizes projection, ownership and ROI for the Oct. 22 slate:
- PG: Jrue Holiday
- SG: Miles McBride
- SF: Josh Hart
- PF: OG Anunoby
- C: Karl-Anthony Towns
- F: D’Angelo Russell
- G: Jayson Tatum
- FLEX: Rudy Gobert
Projection: 260.26
Ownership: 344.2%
Cash Odds: 40.627%
Sim ROI: +55%
Key Takeaways for October 22 NBA DFS Slate
Mid-range value is key: There’s no great super-cheap value on this slate, so focusing on mid-range plays like Jrue Holiday, O.G. Anunoby and Naz Reid is critical.
Knicks will be chalky: With Miles McBride, Josh Hart and Karl-Anthony Towns dominating ownership projections, consider strategic pivots to gain leverage in tournaments.
Holiday and Anunoby are strong leverage targets: These two players offer a high ceiling and low ownership, making them perfect targets for large-field GPPs.
Avoid overvalued players: Payton Pritchard, Rudy Gobert and Al Horford appear to be over-owned relative to their expected output.
