Sunday brings Game 3 of the Western Conference Finals and a venue change to Dallas. Will the Mavericks make it three in a row? Tonight’s DFS contests lock at 8:00 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. There are several options in the player pool worth analyzing to find the top NBA DFS building blocks and NBA DFS picks. Let’s dig into the NBA DFS picks and core plays like Luka Doncic, Anthony Edwards and Kyrie Irving
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NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Sunday, May 26
NBA DFS Picks: Building Blocks
Luka Doncic: Mavericks vs. Timberwolves
Stokastic’s Fantasy Point Projections
DraftKings: 60.45 | FanDuel: 57.38
Stokastic’s Rostership Projections
DraftKings: 73.8% | FanDuel: 66.5%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $11,100 | FanDuel: $17,000
Luka Doncic is clearly hobbled and in pain, but he still managed to lead the Mavericks to a pair of victories in Minnesota. Tonight is the first game of the series in Dallas, where the hometown fans should be able to propel him to another level as he keeps his eye on the ultimate prize.
Doncic has back-to-back games with 30-plus points, and on Friday he had his fifth triple-double of the postseason.
Gamers are being asked to hand over a king’s ransom for the services of the superstar, but he has shown himself to be worth it. Of course, there are ways to win without Doncic in lineups; however, it will be trickier on FanDuel than on DraftKings, where the 50% salary tax on the multiplier slot can be punitive. Expect another 40-plus minutes with the triple-double watch in effect tonight for the ailing 25-year-old.
Kyrie Irving continues to morph his game into whatever coach Jason Kidd needs, and for this matchup, he has been more of a scorer with 30 and 20 points in the two games. He also is playing top-level defense on crucial possessions while helping Doncic facilitate the offense. This is probably the best chance for Uncle Drew to get another ring, and he has been on task all season.
Dereck Lively II is blooming this spring, and though he continues to come off the bench, he is the preferred fourth quarter option over veteran Daniel Gafford. Each has a 20-minute baseline, but the other eight minutes have been going more and more towards the rookie. Foul trouble is always a risk when going against the Minnesota frontcourt, though that has not been an issue through the first two games. This duo can be employed on the same roster, but that takes away from the potential upside of one getting significantly more minutes over the other.
P.J. Washington’s scoring flurry is well in the rearview mirror now that Irving has taken back that responsibility. The former 12th overall selection from the University of Kentucky should still approach a dozen field goal attempts, with most coming from behind the arc, which makes for a wide range of potential outcomes. He has made his fantasy supporters happy with a pair of blocks in each of the first two games of this series. However, he has averaged only one per game for his career while also seeing just 5.5 rebounds. Minutes are getting him to where he needs to be, but an efficient game could turn him into a slate-breaker.
Derrick Jones Jr. rounds out the first five, though his role is that of a defensive presence to harass the Minnesota backcourt. He will get a few field goal attempts, but double-digit shots do not appear to be in the cards this series.
The Dallas bench is a little tricky, aside from Lively. Josh Green, Tim Hardaway Jr. and Jaden Hardy will all get minutes, but anything more than 10 to 12 will be hard to come by. Green had 21 in Game 2 after getting just 13 in the series opener. He has the best chance to clear the 10-minute mark, but it may not be by much.
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Anthony Edwards: Timberwolves at Mavericks
Stokastic’s Fantasy Point Projections
DraftKings: 47.11 | FanDuel: 45.92
Stokastic’s Rostership Projections
DraftKings: 54.3% | FanDuel: 52.6%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $9,400 | FanDuel: $15,500
The heavy workload may finally be catching up to Anthony Edwards, as he has been called upon to be an ace defender while also carrying the offense.
He played in 79 regular season games for the second consecutive season and has now averaged 40.2 minutes in 13 games, including 40.5 minutes in nine games over the last 22 days. The first-round sweep of Phoenix was a lifetime ago, and it will be interesting to see how Edwards responds in a road game, facing an 0-2 deficit.
Clearly Edwards will be popular and represented on just over half of all lineups, but there are other potential routes to victory tonight. Naz Reid had one heck of a Game 2, nailing 7 of 9 (77.8%) from downtown. He has gone 13 of 22 (59.1%) in just two games after being a combined 9 of 28 (32.1%) in seven games against Denver. This is unlikely to continue, but that doesn’t mean it has to end tonight.
Karl-Anthony Towns has been dreadful against the Mavericks, shooting 10-for-36 (27.8%) while averaging 15.5 points, 7.0 rebounds, 2.5 assists and 1.5 steals. If he and Edwards continue to struggle, we could see the Mavericks sweep this series on their way to the NBA Finals. Rudy Gobert keeps chugging along, and he is making his limited offensive opportunities count while patrolling the boards. The blocks have fallen off and that hurts from a fantasy perspective, but he could easily have three tonight and be a difference-maker. Where he was not a difference-maker was in the last minute of Game 2, and the much-maligned four-time Defensive Player of the Year has had to listen to his critics over the last 48 hours. It will be interesting to see how the Minny Big 3 respond in the opening quarter tonight.
Michael Conley tied his postseason high of 18 points, sinking 7 of 14 field goal attempts. That was the most volume he has seen in these playoffs, so it would be a surprise to get a reprise of that tonight. After three games of 21-plus points, Jaden McDaniels came crashing back down to reality with a mere 2 points on 1 of 6 (16.7%). It would appear that the clock has struck midnight on this Cinderella story, but that should also keep The Masses away.
Kyle Anderson has a slight lead over Nickeil Alexander-Walker, who was the leader throughout the second round. This battle should continue tonight, though it is a true coinflip as to which player is the better option. This would be a duo to avoid having on the same roster, which is a rare statement for the single-game format.
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Today’s Top Sports Betting Pick
Nickeil Alexander-Walker is a dicey play in the DFS world, but we can root for him in the sports wagering market. There is value with his over 3.5 points prop. This wager is currently available at -115 on bet365 and -120 at BetMGM. Looking at the -124 “true odds” (how OddsShopper measures the potential expected ROI of a given wager), we can see there is a steady 3.5% expected ROI with the current line.
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By using OddsShopper to do the heavy lifting when researching favorable bets, we can quickly spot inefficient lines like this one, and having accounts at multiple sportsbooks allows us to pivot to the best number quickly.
We can see that the current line on the from these operators stands out when FanDuel and PointsBet have pushed the threshold to 4.5 points while still juicing the over.
NBA Bet Pro has Alexander-Walker projected for 17.9 minutes and 5.02, which is above the 3.5 milestone, though it does not account for a variable range of outcomes. That can be measured by the 55% probability for the over on this wager.
In his last nine games, Alexander-Walker has 4 or more points six times while averaging 6.4 on 6.7 field goal attempts. If he hits one 3-pointer, we need him to put the ball in the hoop one other time via a free throw or another bucket.
Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today
Get all the latest news and updates for NBA DFS picks today on the Stokastic NBA Live Before Lock Show at 7:30 p.m. ET on YouTube, breaking down all of the key elements for today’s slate, including even more on Luka Doncic, Anthony Edwards and Kyrie Irving. Brought to you by Sleeper – new users, use this link to receive a $100 first deposit match! Full details here.
