Thursday keeps the NBA action rolling with a six-game featured slate, beginning at 7 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. There are several options in the player pool worth analyzing to find the top NBA DFS building blocks and NBA DFS picks. Let’s dig into the NBA DFS picks and core plays like Dejounte Murray, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Victor Wembanyama. Subscribe today for access to our industry-leading resources, including our lineup generator (available for NFL, NBA, MLB and PGA), our DFS simulation tools (available for NFL, NBA, MLB, PGA, MMA and NASCAR) and our industry-leading projections for every sport.
NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Thursday, February 29
NBA DFS Picks: Building Blocks
Dejounte Murray: Atlanta Hawks at Brooklyn Nets
Stokastic’s Fantasy Point Projections
DraftKings: 45.72 | FanDuel: 44.05
Stokastic’s Rostership Projections
DraftKings: 4.8% | FanDuel: 25.9%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $9,400 | FanDuel: $8,800
Once again, Dejounte Murray is in the featured section for this article series. Trae Young had surgery on his left-hand little finger, which will keep him out of action for at least a month and potentially the remainder of the season.
Murray has seen a salary increase across the DFS sites with his assumption of additional scoring and facilitation duties, but there is still room for “profit” potential.
Brooklyn is a team in flux, having just fired coach Jacque Vaugh and now interim coach Kevin Ollie has assumed the lead role. While the team has good defenders, there has been no real consistency with Ben Simmons rarely reaching 20 minutes when he is healthy and since returning from injury, Dorian Finney-Smith has played more than 22 minutes twice in seven starts. Mikal Bridges and Nic Claxton can’t hold off opposing teams by themselves, which is evidenced by the Nets winning just two of their last 10 games, with the average loss being by 13.8 points, EXCLUDING losses of 28, 37 and 50 points. Murray sees an increase from just under one fantasy point per minute, to 1.3 when Young is off the court.
Turning the attention to Brooklyn, since the Hawks are a terrible defense and they average over five more possessions per game than the Nets, Cameron Johnson (31.7%) and Mikal Bridges (30.6%) are projecting as the two most popular plays on DraftKings. On FanDuel it is Johnson (43.7%) and Dennis Schroder (40.6%), while Bridges (17.3%) falls to 17th.
Cam Thomas is out, so that should provide trickledown minutes for Lonnie Walker IV who is the punt du jour on DraftKings ($3,900), with shooting guard and small forward eligibility granting him access to five of the eight roster slots.
Giannis Antetokoumpo: Milwaukee Bucks at Charlotte Hornets
Stokastic’s Fantasy Point Projections
DraftKings: 56.17 | FanDuel: 55.09
Stokastic’s Rostership Projections
DraftKings: 10.9% | FanDuel: 10.0%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $11,300 | FanDuel: $11,700
Giannis Antetokounmpo is a luxury option tonight, though he has the best matchup of the top-shelf DFS plays. The Bucks currently favored by a dozen points in Charlotte as the Hornets just suffered a 38 point loss in Milwaukee on Tuesday.
The Bucks do play again on Friday, but they have the remainder of the weekend off, before resuming action in Milwaukee on Monday against the Los Angeles Clippers.
Antetokounmpo was only needed for 24 minutes on Tuesday, though he did have 24 points and eight rebounds in his cameo. There is risk of in-game rest once again, but also a chance that Charlotte keeps things closer at home. The Hornets have won five of seven games, though Indiana was the only playoff-bound team that they vanquished.
If Antetokounmpo remains projected in the 15%-to-20% range, he is a fine tournament option. If he becomes more popular than that, it is probably worth coming in under the field as the Bucks have won each of the three prior games in this series by 31 or more points, while Antetokounmpo has averaged only 25.2 minutes, though with nearly 40 fantasy points.
If for some reason Antetokounmpo (knee) is held out of tonight’s game in anticipation of a slightly tougher matchup tomorrow in Chicago, look to Damian Lillard, Bobby Portis and Brook Lopez as elevated tournament targets.
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NBA DFS Picks: Key Games
Oklahoma City Thunder at San Antonio Spurs
This matchup has the highest point total (236.5) of the featured slate on DraftKings and FanDuel, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Victor Wembanyama being the two other players with a 50-plus median fantasy point projection, aside from Antetokounmpo.
Oklahoma City is currently listed as 11.0 point road favorites, but while the Spurs have lost 10 of their last 11 games, they at least have been pushing the opposition into the final frame.
The addition of Gordon Hayward has lengthened the rotation, making it tricky to find too many DFS worthy plays now that the Thunder are at full strength. Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren are both threats to flirt with the 40 fantasy point plateau, with Williams reaching that milestone in five of his last eight games and Holmgren rattling off four straight.
Devin Vassell and Tre Jones are the two Spurs to target, outside of Wembanyama, with each carrying a fair salary across the DFS sites. Keldon Johnson is a wild card, who could struggle his way to single-digit fantasy points, but his salary is at a season low $4,900 on DraftKings and the second-lowest of the year on FanDuel ($6,000).
Today’s Top Sports Betting Pick
Kyle Kuzma is not on the featured DFS slate, but we can still look to target against him in the sports wagering market with the under on his 8.5 rebounds prop, which is currently available at odds of-120 on Bet365.
This is a good example that demonstrates the power of letting OddsShopper do the heavy lifting when researching favorable bets.
The next-best odds at the most popular books are in the -130 to -140 range, with “sharp” book Pinnacle all the way down at -150, which is just punitive!
Per the true odds of -133 (how OddsShopper measures the potential expected ROI of a given wager), this opportunity has a nice 4.7% positive expected ROI as a function of the inefficient line.
NBA Bet Pro currently has Kuzma projected for 34.2 minutes and 7.86 rebounds. That median projection is below the 8.5 target, but keep in mind a range of outcomes is far different than one specific projection.
In two of his last four games, Kuzma has nabbed a dozen rebounds. However, in his last 10 games, those were the only two outings above 8.5, with one other game at eight. Six of the 10 games ended up with the former Laker corralling four or fewer caroms.
Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today
Check out the Stokastic NBA Deeper Dive and Live Before Lock Shows starting at 5:00 p.m. ET on YouTube, breaking down all of the key elements for today’s slate. Brought to you by PrizePicks – new users, use this link to receive a $100 first deposit match AND – ONE FREE MONTH of OddsShopper Premium! Full details here.
