Saturday brings a compact seven-game featured slate, with a 7 p.m. ET first tip on DraftKings and FanDuel. There are several options in the player pool worth analyzing to find the top NBA DFS building blocks and NBA DFS picks. Let’s dig into the NBA DFS picks and core plays like Precious Achiuwa and Jaren Jackson Jr. We’ll also have to monitor the availability of Tyrese Maxey. Subscribe today for access to our industry-leading resources, including our lineup generator (available for NFL, NBA, MLB and PGA), our DFS simulation tools (available for NFL, NBA, MLB, PGA and MMA) and our industry-leading projections for every sport.
NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Saturday, February 10
NBA DFS Picks: Building Blocks
Precious Achiwua: Knicks vs. Pacers
Stokastic’s Fantasy Point Projections
DraftKings: 41.49 | FanDuel: 40.96
Stokastic’s Rostership Projections
DraftKings: 23.8% | FanDuel: 40.3%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $6,900 | FanDuel: $7,100
Isaiah Hartenstein is out, which means the Knicks are now without their top three frontcourt options, with Julius Randle (shoulder) out through the All-Star Break and Mitchell Robinson unlikely to return for at least another month. OG Anunoby (elbow) is going to be sidelined for a couple of weeks as well. This means major minutes for Precious Achiuwa, even if Jericho Sims (illness) somehow finds his way onto the active lineup.
Over the last five games, Achiuwa is averaging 41.5 minutes and 12.4 field goal attempts with a 50% conversion rate. Those rates have led him to average 14 points, 10 rebounds, 1.4 assists and 2.8 combined blocks and steals. While those aren’t exactly eye-popping numbers, the up-tempo matchup against the Pacers will likely lead to more fast breaks, dunks and errant shots to be collected as rebounds. By the way, these statistics were compiled alongside Hartenstein, so Achiuwa could be racking up even more counting stats 38-year-old Taj Gibson is working as the other frontcourt player.
Jalen Brunson (ankle) missed the last game, so if he is out tonight, expect newcomer Bojan Bogdanovic and the boomeranging Alec Burks to pick up a majority of the scoring load. They lose some appeal if Brunson is a go, but Josh Hart and Donte DiVincenzo would be in play as well if Brunson is out, even with their increasing salaries.
Jaren Jackson Jr.: Grizzlies at Hornets
Stokastic’s Fantasy Point Projections
DraftKings: 44.76 | FanDuel: 44.92
Stokastic’s Rostership Projections
DraftKings: 29.4% | FanDuel: 25.3%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $8,100 | FanDuel: $8,700
After missing two games with a hip issue, Jaren Jackson Jr. returned to action against Chicago and played his typical minutes (low-30s).
While the reigning NBA Defensive Player of the Year doesn’t reach the 50 fantasy point plateau with great frequency, he does clear 40 fantasy points more often than not. This shows in his last 11 games, where he had 50-plus fantasy points once, but over 40 seven other times.
Scotty Pippen Jr. and Vince Williams look appealing on DraftKings, but they are neutral at best on FanDuel, where the salary algorithm has been more aggressive. Santi Aldama is the other Memphis player to target on the blue site. Lamar Stevens and Yuta Watanabe are expected to be available tonight and Derrick Rose (ankle) may be as well. This means the Grizzlies have a full rotation, so aside from the aforementioned players, there are not too many interesting plays.
Turning to Charlotte, Miles Bridges is the main recommended target on DraftKings, while Nick Richards and Brandon Miller stand out on FanDuel. Tre Mann and Grant Williams are expected to be available tonight, which lengthens the Hornets’ rotation as well.
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NBA DFS Picks: Key Games
Philadelphia 76ers at Washington Wizards
Both teams are on back-to-backs, and each squad lost last night. The 76ers fell at home 127-121 to the Atlanta Hawks, though Philadelphia was without Tyrese Maxey (illness). Regardless of his availability tonight, Buddy Hield looks like a strong play after getting 40 minutes last night. Kelly Oubre Jr. is intriguing in this matchup against the team that drafted him, and if Maxey is out again, Cameron Payne is a desirable discount dandy across the DFS industry.
Paul Reed should have the advantage over a thin Washington frontcourt, while Tobias Harris would move from a neutral option to a secondary target if Maxey is out.
The Wizards are the most intriguing on DraftKings, with Tyus Jones, Kyle Kuzma and Deni Avdija being the trio to target. If Marvin Bagley III (back) returns after a four-game absence, look to him as a solid center option. If he is out and newcomer Richaun Holmes ends up with a spot start, he will become one of the best punts on DraftKings and a solid play on FanDuel, but the opportunity cost of using the center slot on his is tricky.
Avdija and Jones are the preferred FanDuel plays, while Bilal Coulibaly would be a large-field lottery ticket if he sticks in the starting lineup.
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Today’s Top Sports Betting Pick
Josh Giddey is someone to look at in the sports wagering market for the under on his 7.5 rebounds prop, which is currently available at odds of -115 on BetMGM.
This is a good example that demonstrates the power of letting OddsShopper do the heavy lifting when researching favorable bets.
The next best odds at most books are in the -150 to -160 range, which is easily a 2% to 3% drop in the expected value of this wager. heck, “sharp” book Pinnacle is all the way down at -174, which is why you want to be a smart shopper!
Per the true odds of -140 (how OddsShopper measures the potential expected ROI of a given wager), this opportunity has a solid 3% positive expected ROI as a function of the inefficient line.
NBA Bet Pro currently has Giddey projected for 24.2 minutes and 6.7 rebounds. That median projection is favorable when compared to the 7.5 threshold tonight, but keep in mind a range of outcomes is far different than one specific projection.
Even though he starts, Oklahoma City seems content to keep him in the 24-to-26-minute range, which curbs his overall statistical production. Over his last nine games, he is averaging 25.3 minutes and 6.1 rebounds. Six of these nine games (66%) have seen him with fewer than eight rebounds, which is the number we need him to stay under tonight. Just to be clear, we want to stay away from anything lower than -140 on the money line, or this will be considered a negative wager.
Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today
Check out the Stokastic NBA Live Before Lock Show starting at 6:00 p.m. ET on YouTube, breaking down all of the key elements for today’s slate. Brought to you by BetMGM– new users, use this link to receive $158 in Bonus Bets when you bet $5 ahead of Super Bowl 58! Full details here.
