Friday winds down the work week with a two-game NBA DFS featured slate with a 7 p.m. ET lock time on DraftKings and FanDuel. There are several options in the player pool worth analyzing to find the top NBA DFS building blocks and NBA DFS picks. Let’s dig into the NBA DFS picks and core plays like Nikola Jokic, Jalen Brunson and Anthony Edwards, facilitated by ample frontcourt value options.
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NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Friday, May 10
NBA DFS Picks: Building Blocks
Shai-Gilgeous Alexander: Thunder vs. Mavericks
Stokastic’s Fantasy Point Projections
DraftKings: 64.28 | FanDuel: 61.51
Stokastic’s Rostership Projections
DraftKings: 26.3% | FanDuel: 29.8%
DFS Salary
DraftKings $11,200 | FanDuel: $12,000
Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets have had nearly four full days to think about how they dropped the first two games of this series in Denver.
Jokic has a median fantasy projection that is nearly 10 points higher than Jalen Brunson and 15 points over Anthony Edwards. He is reigning NBA Finals MVP, and he just was awarded a third regular season MVP trophy. Do you want to count him out tonight?
Edwards has been amazing this season, with tremendous growth from October until now. He also has been making his teammates better, which is the hallmark of a true superstar. We should not be coronating him just yet, but he is pushing his way into the discussion of the five best players in the league, and it would not be a surprise if he earns a scoring title in the next season or two.
Rudy Gobert missed Game 2 while being away from the team for the birth of his first child, though he is expected to play tonight. That will again make things a little crowded for him, Karl-Anthony Towns and Naz Reid, but this trio holds appeal as gamers flock to the New York frontcourt. They will be underrepresented in tournaments, and after watching PJ Washington last night, well, that was a great reminder that anything can change from game to game in the postseason. Towns is projecting as the most popular Minnesota player on DraftKings ($7,000), though he slides to fifth on FanDuel ($8,000), while defensive maven Jaden McDaniels ($4,400) surges up the board as the second-most popular player in the entire field.
Mike Conley is a neutral option on both of the main DFS sites, while Nickel Alexander-Walker is most useful on DraftKings ($4,000) with eligibility at shooting guard and small forward, qualifying him for five of the nine roster slots.
Jamal Murray remains in a shooting funk, missing 15 of 18 (83.3%) of his shots. He was also fined $100,000 after throwing a heating pad that ended up on the court. Clearly he is frustrated and likely more hurt than letting on, but it feels like an overreaction to completely remove him from the player pool tonight. Hopefully his head is in the game tonight, otherwise Denver will be on the brink of elimination.
Michael Porter Jr. had his worst game of the postseason, though with the 106-80 loss, that can be said about pretty much everyone on the team. Porter simply has to a difference maker since it seems that Murray is not going to be able to provide floor spacing. Aaron Gordon was a bit of a bright spot, scoring 20 points on an efficient 8 of 14 (57.1%) from the field, making three of five from downtown. It will be interesting to see what adjustments coach Mike Malone makes for tonight, and using Murray as more of a decoy or facilitator and getting Porter and especially Gordon more involved in the offense would be a good thing.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is fine as a last man in, while Christian Braun, Justin Holiday and Reggie Jackson are the best reserves to roll the dice with tonight.
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Precious Achiuwa: Knicks at Pacers
Stokastic’s Fantasy Point Projections
DraftKings: 27.64 | FanDuel: 28.51
Stokastic’s Rostership Projections
DraftKings: 87.6% | FanDuel: 53.4%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $4,100 | FanDuel: $5,000
O.G. Anunoby is out, joining Mitchell Robinson and, of course, Julius Randle on the sidelines. That means Precious Achiuwa will likely move into the first five and he and Isaiah Hartenstein should see as many minutes as their fouls, tendons and ligaments allow.
Achiuwa entered the game with 3:27 remaining in the third quarter when Anunoby was hurt and never left the court.
Josh Hart played all 48 minutes and expects to do the same tonight since coach Tom Thibodeau is a madman. Jalen Brunson went to the locker room at the 3:27 mark in the first quarter with what was thought to be a hand injury and was later updated to a foot issue. He missed the entire second quarter but started the second half, never seeing the bench. Again, Thibodeau is a madman.
Brunson has said he is playing tonight, though who knows how effective he will be. It will also be interesting to see how many Knickerbockers actually see action since on Wednesday seven players checked in, but Alec Burks was on the floor for 43 seconds to end the second quarter and that was it.
Donte DiVincenzo played almost 44 minutes, so as long as he is remotely effective on offense, he should see 38-plus minutes tonight, with Miles McBride probably approaching 30 himself. Maybe Burks, who was acquired in a midseason deal with Bogdan Bogdanovic (out for the season), could find 10 to 15 minutes backing up DiVincenzo, McBride and Brunson, but we just don’t know. In Burks’ favor is his prior stint with the Knicks, which is why Thibodeau wanted him back on the team.
Oh, despite all the kerfuffle detailed above, New York held serve at home, winning 130-121 and earning a 2-0 lead as the series resumes in Indiana tonight. The Pacers are 7.5-point favorites, but this is not likely to be an easy row to hoe if Brunson is at least 80% healthy. Anunoby leaves a big hole in the defense, which in turn should improve the fantasy production for Tyrese Haliburton, Pascal Siakam and Myles Turner.
T.J. McConnell is the fourth-most popular option on DraftKings ($4,800), projecting to be represented on nearly two of every three tournament lineups. Andrew Nembhard is the most popular FanDuel ($4,500) play, with McDaniels coming in second, and then the next seven players are from this tilt.
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Today’s Top Sports Betting Pick
Tyrese Haliburton is someone to consider in the sports wagering market for his under 4.5 rebounds prop, which is currently available on FanDuel at -120. Looking at the -131 “true odds” (how OddsShopper measures the potential expected ROI of a given wager), we can see there is a steady 4.1% expected ROI with the current line.
By using OddsShopper to do the heavy lifting when researching favorable bets, we can quickly spot inefficient lines like this one, and having accounts at multiple sportsbooks allows us to pivot to the best number quickly.
NBA Bet Pro has Haliburton projected for 37.08 minutes and 4.73 rebounds, which is above the 4.5 milestone, but that does not account for variable outcomes, which are better represented by the 57% probability of the under occurring for this wager.
In his eight playoff games, Haliburton has five or more rebounds four times, exactly four three times and below four once. In his two games against the Knicks, he had six and two while averaging just over 35 minutes. This is basically a must-win game for Indianapolis, so that accounts for an uptick in Haliburton’s baseline minutes, but if there is a runaway, he may not need to be as active on the boards or on the court more than 33 to 35 minutes. This wager is likely to go down to the wire, but there is value in the line.
Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today
Get all the latest news and updates for NBA DFS picks today on the Stokastic NBA Live Before Lock Show at 6:00 p.m. ET on YouTube, breaking down all of the key elements for today’s slate. Brought to you by Sleeper – new users, use this link to receive a $500 first deposit match! Full details here.
