Monday brings a plethora of NBA stars sprinkled across a nine-game featured slate locking at 7 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. There are several options in the player pool worth analyzing to find the top NBA DFS building blocks and NBA DFS picks. Let’s dig into the NBA DFS picks and core plays like Victor Wembanyama, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Nikola Jokic. We will also have to monitor the availability of Zion Williamson, Alperen Sengun and Isaiah Hartenstein. Subscribe today for access to our industry-leading resources, including our lineup generator (available for NFL, NBA, MLB and PGA), our DFS simulation tools (available for NFL, NBA, MLB, PGA and MMA) and our industry-leading projections for every sport.
NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Monday, February 12
NBA DFS Picks: Building Blocks
Victor Wembanyama: San Antonio Spurs at Toronto Raptors
Stokastic’s Fantasy Point Projections
DraftKings: 50.26 | FanDuel: 50.95
Stokastic’s Rostership Projections
DraftKings: 16.3% | FanDuel: 6.2%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $8,900 | FanDuel: $10,000
Rookie Victor Wembanyama has struggled over the last two games, though it should be no surprise since the Spurs were on the road and against teams with good defenses and centers in Brooklyn and Orlando.
Additionally, his performance in Miami on the first game of the road trip was a neutral result. Though, that should not dissuade savvy gamers from rolling with him tonight in Toronto.
The Raptors are clearly seeing the effects of trading O.G. Anunoby and Pascal Siakam, having allowed 122.6 points per 100 possessions over the last 10 games. Jakob Poeltl is a good rebounder, but he is not the most nimble of post defenders, which bodes well for Wembanyama in this game with a lofty 236.5-point total. The Spurs are projected for 115.5 points, which is 3% higher than their standard game.
Immanuel Quickley and Scottie Barnes are both among the five most popular options on FanDuel, and they should hold on to spots in the top 10 through lock. Both are decent on DraftKings, though the salary algorithm has them with appropriate cap hits.
Giannis Antetokounmpo: Milwaukee Bucks vs. Denver Nuggets
Stokastic’s Fantasy Point Projections
DraftKings: 61.25 | FanDuel: 60.08
Stokastic’s Rostership Projections
DraftKings: <5.0% | FanDuel: <5.0%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $11,700 | FanDuel: $11,800
Though Giannis Antetokounmpo is dealing with right knee soreness and listed as questionable, he is expected to play tonight against the Denver Nuggets. The Bucks had a back-to-back on Thursday and Friday, getting crushed by the Minnesota Timberwolves 129-105 and then dismantling the Charlotte Hornets 120-84. Antetokounmpo played a grand total of 50 minutes in these games, so do not despair over his anemic game logs.
Khris Middleton (ankle) will be out through the All-Star Break, so Pat Connaughton, Bobby Portis and Jae Crowder should each see increased minutes and opportunities.
Currently Antetokounmpo is projected to be on fewer than 5% of all tournament rosters across the DFS world, but that will likely move up towards 20% once additional news on injuries and availability is released throughout the day.
Nikola Jokic is also likely to end up in the 15% to 20% range as gamers employ the coveted stars and scrubs roster strategy to craft their lineups. Jokic is currently in the optimal lineup, created with the 10 a.m. ET median fantasy projections for DraftKings. The top Antetokounmpo lineup is within 1 fantasy point, and when rostering both, the lineup is less than 3 points away from the current optimal.
The top Jokic lineup on FanDuel is within 2 fantasy points of the optimal, while rostering both sees the median projection 8 points short of the top lineup. Michael Porter Jr. (knee) sat out on Friday, which was the second game of a back-to-back, but he is expected to return tonight. This game has the Nuggets as 1-point road-favorites and a 232.5 game total. If everyone is healthy for Denver, it is hard to be overly excited for anyone outside of Jokic.
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NBA DFS Picks: Key Games
Dallas Mavericks vs. Washington Wizards
Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving stand out in this matchup, with Dallas boasting an implied team total cresting just over 130 points. The blowout risk is real, so that is why this duo gets a mention rather than being featured recommendations. Former Wizard Daniel Gafford had 19 points and nine rebounds in just 17 minutes against the Oklahoma City Thunder on Saturday afternoon, and considering that he was the best defender among the Washington frontcourt options, he should be able to carve up his old team, even coming off the bench.
Richaun Holmes was traded from the Mavericks for Gafford, but he has not yet suited up for Washington. He is going to be hard to trust if he is not in the starting lineup as we see how the Wizards shake up their rotation. Marvin Bagley III started the last game at center, in his first action after a four-game absence due to back spasms. He was mostly ineffective in his 15 minutes, so he too is tough to trust outside of being a tournament target on the evening sub-slate.
Kyle Kuzma, Deni Avdija and Tyus Jones are three of the more popular plays on DraftKings, with the latter two currently projecting among the top 3. They are all viable tournament targets on FanDuel, though the blue site has assigned them salaries that are appropriate for this likely track meet.
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Today’s Top Sports Betting Pick
Tobias Harris is someone to look at in the sports wagering market for the under on his 30.5 points + rebounds + assists (PRA) prop, which is currently available at odds of -115 on Hard Rock and several other books at -117.
This is a good example that demonstrates the power of letting OddsShopper do the heavy lifting when researching favorable bets.
The next-best odds at the most popular books are in the -120 to -125 range, with sharp book Pinnacle posting a punishing -153 line and FanDuel dropping the under to 29.5 PRA while offering a -113 line. It pays to be a savvy shopper!
Per the true odds of -129 (how OddsShopper measures the potential expected ROI of a given wager), this opportunity has an excellent 5% positive expected ROI as a function of the inefficient line.
NBA Bet Pro currently has Harris projected for 35.5 minutes, 19.39 points, 6.74 rebounds and 3.82 assists for 29.95 PRA. That median projection is lower than the 30.5 threshold, but keep in mind a range of outcomes is far different than one specific projection.
Harris has picked up extra responsibilities with Joel Embiid out, but the 31-year-old gets by with his ability to do a little bit of everything rather than being a consistent producer in multiple categories. He has 31-plus PRA five times in his last dozen games, but five of the seven where he failed, he really fell short with 23 or fewer PRA. Cleveland has one of the best defenses in the league, which will counter the increased opportunities that Harris is seeing.
Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today
Check out the Stokastic NBA Deeper Dive and Live Before Lock Shows starting at 5:00 p.m. ET on YouTube, breaking down all of the key elements for today’s slate. Brought to you by PrizePicks – new users, use this link to receive a $100 first deposit match AND – ONE FREE MONTH of OddsShopper Premium! Full details here.
