Monday kicks off a new week with a compressed six-game featured slate getting underway at 7 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. There are several options in the player pool worth analyzing to find the top NBA DFS building blocks and NBA DFS picks. Let’s dig into the NBA DFS picks and core plays like Tyrese Maxey and tournament target Donovan Mitchell — while monitoring the availability of Luka Doncic, Paul George, Jakob Poeltl and RJ Barrett.
NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Monday, February 5
NBA DFS Picks: Building Blocks
Tyrese Maxey: Philadelphia 76ers vs. Dallas Mavericks
Stokastic’s Fantasy Point Projections
DraftKings: 50.23 | FanDuel: 48.49
Stokastic’s Rostership Projections
DraftKings: 16.4% | FanDuel: 21.5%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $9,100 | FanDuel: $9,400
Joel Embiid will be having a “corrective procedure” on his knee to address a torn lateral meniscus, with no timetable to return. That means Tyrese Maxey will be the primary scoring option for the 76ers.
When sharing the court this season with Embiid, Maxey has a 22.0% usage rate and is averaging 1.06 fantasy points per minute. Without the Cameroonian on the floor, those numbers jump to 33.2% and 1.30 fantasy points per minute.
Over the last 10 games, Dallas has a league-worst 126.1 defensive efficiency rating and a neutral pace. Philadelphia has played at a slightly slower pace during this stretch, but the 76ers have the third-worst defensive efficiency, allowing 122.2 points per 100 possessions. Tobias Harris (illness) is on the short list tonight as the do-everything journeyman forward averages 1.11 fantasy points per minute this season without Embiid, and he will be the secondary source of offense most nights and should see an increase in rebounding opportunities. If Harris is out, then Kelly Oubre Jr. and Patrick Beverley are likely to get an uptick in opportunities as the 76ers scramble for other scoring options. Keep in mind that De’Anthony Melton and Nicolas Batum are out with injuries as well.
Luka Doncic (ankle) is questionable, but if he suits up, he is a premiere play in the midst of a career season. Kyrie Irving (thumb) is likely to return after missing two weeks, and as long as his conditioning is good, he is a viable tournament option as well in this game boasting a 242.5 total. Dereck Lively II and Dante Exum are out for tonight, with the former opening up frontcourt minutes while the latter will be covered by the return of Irving.
Maximilian Kleber (toe) drew the start on Saturday, which led to a productive outing while relegating Richaun Holmes to the shadow realm just one game after dropping 33 fantasy points in a Wednesday spot start. Dwight Powell has played one, 14 and 19 minutes over the last three games, so it seems that there will not be a “Remember Me?!” opportunity for Holmes outside of mop-up duty. Kleber is the only trustworthy option of this trio, and even then only if he starts. If Holmes randomly lands with the first five, he is a volatile tournament target.
Donovan Mitchell: Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Sacramento Kings
Stokastic’s Fantasy Point Projections
DraftKings: 49.71 | FanDuel: 48.65
Stokastic’s Rostership Projections
DraftKings: 8.5% | FanDuel: 4.2%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $9,700 | FanDuel: $10,600
Donovan Mitchell is someone to consider tonight, especially depending on how the injury news shakes out. If either LeBron James or Anthony Davis becomes an observer in Charlotte tonight, the other will be a coveted DFS play. The Dallas situation was covered above, plus there still are the Clippers on a back-to-back, which could lead to Paul George (groin) or Kawhi Leonard getting the night off.
Darius Garland and Evan Mobley are both back in action but on restrictive minutes after long injury layoffs.
Jarrett Allen (ankle) is also questionable, so there is a strong chance that Mitchell will push for 50-plus fantasy points tonight in a cherry matchup against Sacramento. In his last 11 games, Mitchell has posted 50 fantasy points five times, 60 once and 70 twice. His three “off” games saw him average 38 fantasy points, which is disappointing but far from a disaster. If Doncic, James and Davis all play, Mitchell gains more appeal, particularly if he remains an off-the-radar option with 15% or less rostership in the featured tournaments.
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NBA DFS Picks: Key Games
Golden State Warriors at Brooklyn Nets
Happy Brandin Podziemski Day! Chris Paul and Gary Payton II remain out, with Andrew Wiggins (ankle) doubtful. Dario Saric (illness) is probable and Moses Moody is available after a nine-game absence. Through all of the moving parts, including heading back to the bench, Podziemski is a strong option tonight in Brooklyn against a depleted Nets squad.
The 19th overall selection in the 2023 NBA Draft is having a fine rookie campaign, appearing in 40 games and making 11 starts. His last two games have been particularly productive, as the youngster averaged 36.5 minutes and 10.0 field goal attempts with a 55.0% conversion rate. This has culminated in 13.5 points, 9.0 rebounds, 9.5 assists, and two combined blocks and steals. Yes, there was an overtime game on Saturday, but his per-minute fantasy numbers have been excellent. Rookies will ebb and flow with their results, but tonight the salary and scenarios are all lining up in Podziemski’s favor.
Ben Simmons, Day’Ron Sharpe and Dorian Finney-Smith are all out tonight for Brooklyn, which bodes well for the Warriors since this entire trio is above average on defense. Stephen Curry had 55-plus fantasy points in three of the last four games, and he is fresh off scoring 60 in Atlanta during Saturday’s 141-134 overtime loss. Jonathan Kuminga is also in the midst of a breakout, scoring 20-plus points in eight of the last nine games and moving into the starting lineup for the last four.
Draymond Green and Klay Thompson are neutral options on DraftKings, and they can be skipped on FanDuel, outside of tournament differentiation plays.
Lonnie Walker IV, Spencer Dinwiddie, Cameron Johnson, Cameron Thomas, Nicolas Claxton and, of course, Mikal Bridges are all fine plays. All six are currently projected among the top 12 most popular plays on DraftKings, with Thomas and Dinwiddie in the top 5 on FanDuel.
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Today’s Top Sports Betting Pick
This wager for Jalen Johnson is a good one to illustrate the power of OddsShopper, which helps you quickly find the best lines and odds across various sports books.
Tonight we can focus on the under 29.5 points + rebounds + assists (PRA) prop for Johnson, which is currently available at odds of -105 on Hard Rock and BetMGM.
Looking at Unibet, FanDuel, SugarHouse and BetRivers, we can see under 29.5 PRA is all the way down to -122. Sharp book Pinnacle has an even more punitive -134 line.
Per the true odds of -115 (how OddsShopper measures the potential expected ROI of a given wager), this opportunity has a solid 5% expected ROI as a function of the inefficient line on Hard Rock and BetMGM, but it actually becomes a negative situation on the remaining books below -115.
It is important to be nimble and have funds on a few different sites to capitalize on these market inefficiencies.
NBA Bet Pro currently has Johnson projected for 35.3 minutes, 15.43 points, 8.66 rebounds and 3.17 assists for 27.5 PRA. That median projection is favorable when compared to 29.5 PRA, but keep in mind a range of outcomes is far different than one specific projection.
The 22-year-old is contributing across the board this season, and his per-36-minutes rates are 17.0 points, 9.0 rebounds and 3.6 assists for 29.6 PRA. This is a back-to-back for the Clippers, but they are still a solid defensive squad and are happy to play at a methodical pace from halfcourt sets. Clint Capela is out for at least a week, and while that is one fewer rebounder to deal with, Onyeka Okongwu is no slouch and De’Andre Hunter is back in the mix, adding another competitive wing. If Hunter is out for injury maintenance, there is no need to make a change of plans as long as Saddiq Bey (ankle) is available. If both are out, this is a less opportunistic wager.
Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today
Check out the Stokastic NBA Deeper Dive and Live Before Lock Shows starting at 5:00 p.m. ET on YouTube, breaking down all of the key elements for today’s slate. Brought to you by BetMGM– new users, use this link to receive $158 in Bonus Bets when you bet $5 ahead of Super Bowl 58! Full details here.
