Tuesday has a compact four-game featured slate with a 7:00 p.m. ET lock time on FanDuel and DraftKings. Let’s get into the top NBA DFS picks and building blocks, including Ivica Zubac, Cade Cunningham and plenty of alternatives from their respective matchups under consideration.
These picks are based on the latest information available. For the most up-to-date lineup updates, visit our NBA DFS Starting Lineups Page!
NBA DFS Picks Today – Building Blocks: Tuesday, March 11
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NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks
Ivica Zubac: Clippers at Pelicans
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 43.61 | FanDuel: 43.22
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 41.4% | FanDuel: 52.1%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $8,000 | FanDuel: $7,900
Ivica Zubac continues to impress now that he is averaging over 29 minutes per appearance for the first time in his career. Through 62 games, he has posted 32.5 minutes and 11.5 field goal attempts with a 61.7% success rate. That is nearly four more shots per game, and while his connection rate is below his last few years, it is still above his career average and is the third-highest conversion rate in the league for players with at least 60 games.
The 29-year-old also is recording 12.5 caroms (4th), 2.5 helpers and 1.1 “stocks” (combined blocks and steals), highlighted by 16.0 points per game. Veteran Kelly Olynyk is getting the night off, so it will be up to youngsters Yves Missi and Karlo Matkovic to slow down Zubac. The Pelicans did sign Mo Bamba to a 10-day contract, so there is a chance he will see time in the post. This year he appeared in 28 games for the Clippers, with two starts, averaging 12.6 minutes backing up Big Z prior to being traded in February to Utah, where he was subsequently waived the next day. To be clear, Bamba is not worthy of DFS consideration, unless, of course, more Pelicans are out; it is just worth highlighting that New Orleans could give him 10 or so minutes if Missi and Matkovic struggle against Zubac.
The Pels play at a middling pace, though it is an uptick over the Clippers. New Orleans was just outside the bottom third of the league with a 117.8 defensive efficiency rating over the last 10 games, which is another boost for Los Angeles. This has all been accounted for in the 222.5 game total and the Clippers being 7.0-point road favorites.
James Harden actually has the second-highest median fantasy point projection on DraftKings, trailing Giannis Antetokounmpo by just over 6 points with a strong 51.29 line. The Beard dips a little on FanDuel to 48.42 fantasy points, where turnovers are more punitive and there is no bonus for 3-pointers or double-doubles.
Norman Powell and Ben Simmons remain out. Per the F-R-E-E Stokastic Starting Lineups page, it looks like veteran combo guard Kris Dunn will continue to start. Defense is his primary role, with the hustle-helper stats being his main DFS contribution. In his last 10 games with the first five, Dunn averaged 3.6 combined blocks and steals, posting five or more stocks on three occasions.
Elder statesman Nicolas Batum is likely to get a fourth consecutive start, though the veteran of 18 NBA campaigns is not particularly fantasy relevant, even with a short slate. He can be employed more for his salary-saving advantage on DraftKings ($3,700, 8.7%) and FanDuel ($3,800, 23.8%) if nothing else pops up throughout the day. Just understand he is unlikely to produce more than 20 to 22 fantasy points in either scoring system.
Kawhi Leonard is not playing on back-to-backs, but he averaged 38.3 minutes in his last five games. That enabled him to produce 22.4 points, 5.8 rebounds, 2.8 assists and 1.6 “stocks,” which make him a DFS target tonight.
Zion Williamson is a terror on the court when he is available, and while it is rare to see him play more than 29 minutes, he cleared that hurdle in four of his last six outings. Anything less than 40 fantasy points is a disappointment, and a 50-burger remains on the menu, even with his minutes cap. He has cleared $9,000 on the main DFS sites, which is going to keep his popularity in the 15% range and below. That makes the former Duke Blue Devil a terrific tournament differentiator.
Matkovic is a potential discount dandy on DraftKings ($3,700), though he is a little tougher to roster on FanDuel ($4,600), even with power forward eligibility. Trey Murphy III and CJ McCollum are neutral options, being somewhat pinched by the trio of Jose Alvarado, Jordan Hawkins and Bruce Brown Jr. When everyone is available, the salaries make it tough to determine the “best” option prior to the final horn.
NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks
Cade Cunningham: Pistons vs. Wizards
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 50.85 | FanDuel: 47.92
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 22.2% | FanDuel: 16.4%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $10,200 | FanDuel: $10,500
Cade Cunningham has been a featured recommendation in this article series many times this season. Tonight he makes it again, though more as a differentiation play.
He is posting personal highs across most statistical categories, which has kept him in the $10,000 salary range for most of the year. Gamers are likely to push their salary cap allocation towards Giannis Antetokounmpo tonight since he outclasses the rest of the competition. Cunningham is in that sweet spot, providing a discount when compared to the two-time NBA MVP but also being more expensive than Williamson and Harden. This should keep his popularity in check, with around one-in-four tournament rosters employing the budding superstar.
Looking at the Stokastic NBA Boom/Bust Tool, we can see that Jalen Duren has a strong 43% “Boom” (5x salary +10 fantasy points) rating and a palatable 21% “Bust” rating on DraftKings. Currently, he is projected to be in the optimal lineup 52% of the time, but he is only on 45% of the rosters, giving him a strong 7% leverage score. FanDuel is a little different since Duren is only $200 cheaper than Zubac, as the veteran is a more consistent performer with a higher floor. However, if Zubac falters and Duren outperforms him, that will present his supporters with an edge over nearly 40% of the field. This are the little edges that become magnified on short slates yet still go overlooked in the chaos of late-season NBA DFS.
Ausar Thompson and reserves Dennis Schroder and Malik Beasley are tertiary targets who could get a little extra run in mop-up duty, with veterans Tim Hardaway Jr. and Tobias Harris potential in-game rest candidates against the woeful Wizards.
Washington is continuing to mail it in, though with Bilal Coulibaly likely out, there are some additional minutes to go around. If both Khris Middleton and Marcus Smart play, as expected, it leaves the Wizards with plenty of bodies, so it is hard to make strong recommendations for anyone at this point. This is a back-to-back for the Wizards, who lost 119-104 in Toronto on Monday. Detroit and Washington play again on Thursday in the Motor City, so there will be no travel for the next 48 hours.
Last night, Washington emptied the bench with five minutes to go in the final frame, which kept all of the starters below 28 minutes, save for rookie Alexandre Sarr (30.4). That was without Middleton and Smart, so continue to expect similar mid-20s minutes for most Wizards, with a chance that some could push for a handful more, depending on in-game situations and development/asset protection decisions.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Pick
Tonight the under for Evan Mobley’s 3.5 assists prop on BetRivers at -103 looks like a wager to target.
The screenshot of Portfolio EV shows that this wager has a historical 8.7% ROI. The combination of today’s matchup variables, along with the -103 odds, results in an elite 11.6% expected value when factoring in the -131 “True Odds.”
Most of the other books are offering -140 or worse, which is just crazy. Be a savvy shopper!
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Stokastic’s Advanced NBA Statistical Projections have Mobley projected for 27.8 minutes and 3.18 assists. That is below the four needed for this wager to lose, and it accounts for the Cavaliers being 17-point home favorites with a proclivity for taking it easy on their key contributors in games that are well in hand. Reserve guard Ty Jerome is out tonight for rest, while Donovan Mitchell (groin) and bench player extraordinaire De’Andre Hunter (illness) are both questionable; it would not be a surprise for one or both of this duo to miss. That still should not have a major impact on Mobley, who averaged 30.1 minutes and 3.4 assists over his last 19 games. He handed out four or more assists seven times (37%) in this stretch, landing on exactly four four times.
Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today
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