Friday brings a stupendous seven-game featured slate, locking at 7:00 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. With a slate packed with pivotal decision points, it’s the perfect time to spotlight the top NBA DFS building blocks and picks for the day. Let’s break down today’s standout plays, including Zach LaVine against the hapless Washington Wizards, along with Dennis Schroder, Trayce Jackson-Davis, Buddy Hield and others.
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NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Friday, Jan. 10
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NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks
Dennis Schroder: Warriors at Pacers
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 34.7 | FanDuel: 33.09
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 36.8% | FanDuel: 50.1%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $5,400 | FanDuel: $5,400
Which Warriors will come out to play tonight? Well, it won’t be Stephen Curry, Andrew Wiggins, Draymond Green, Jonathan Kuminga, Brandin Podziemski or Gary Payton II.
There is also a chance that Trayce Jackson-Davis (eye) will be out as well, though Dennis Schroder and Moses Moody are probable.
Not even a week ago, Your Ol’ Pal was discussing caution around an incredibly popular Schroder, so what has changed since Saturday? For starters, he may be the only regular starter with the first five tonight, depending on Jackson-Davis. Secondly, his salary is low across the main DFS sites, and third, this is a matchup against a middling Indiana defense that also may be running shorthanded tonight.
The upside for Schroder is limited, and over his last 11 starts for the Warriors, he averaged 29.1 minutes, 10.2 points, 2.2 rebounds, 4.7 assists, and 0.8 combined blocks and steals. In these games, he had 25-plus fantasy points three times, with his best two outings in the mid-30s. That is right around where he is projected tonight, which makes him a solid foundational building block for all formats.
Buddy Hield had back-to-back games with 30-plus fantasy points, and he is available at a significant discount to Schroder across the DFS sites. Though some casual DFS gamers are convinced that Hield is “dusty” and “washed,” that is not the case. His game just has not evolved enough for him to be a 30-minute-a-night starter. The offense off the bench is what makes him a desirable commodity throughout the NBA, and he is still knocking down 3’s at a 38.7% clip on 7.2 attempts per game.
Kyle Anderson played a scant nine minutes last night, with four minutes at the end of the first quarter and five at the end of the third. Buyer beware, though he did have just over a fantasy point per minute on Tuesday in 26 minutes of run. Coach Steve Kerr seems to invent reasons to limit the minutes of Moses Moody, but perhaps tonight his hand will be forced. Gui Santos could be the punt du jour, so pay attention to news throughout the evening.
Tyrese Haliburton (ankle) is questionable, and Myles Turner (illness) may miss a second consecutive game. If Turner is out, Thomas Bryant, who was the DFS darling on Wednesday with nearly 40 fantasy points, could be in line for another spot start. He saw minutes over Obi Toppin, though that was more of a hot-hand approach, so there is risk with Bryant.
Pascal Siakam would benefit from either of the top teammates being out, and if both sit, he will be a priority building block. Bennedict Mathurin will move from a neutral option to a secondary target if either are out, though be careful with T.J. McConnell, who does not see much of a role change, regardless of Haliburton’s availability. Andrew Nembhard would be the better option as he could earn more minutes.
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Zach LaVine: Bulls vs. Wizards
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 41.29 | FanDuel: 39.13
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 21.5% | FanDuel: 21.3%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $8,100 | FanDuel: $8,200
Ayo Dosunmu is missing his eighth game in a row, so we can continue to look to Zach LaVine and Coby White, with Josh Giddey as a tertiary member of this backcourt trio.
Yes, at some point the biscuit wheels are coming off this gravy train, but it doesn’t have to stop tonight against Washington.
The Wizards have been dreadful all season on defense, which, of course, is no surprise. The surprise is that even though the team is tanking, the players have pushed opposing teams into the fourth quarter of several games, even with key contributors like Kyle Kuzma, Jordan Poole and Malcolm Brogdon missing time.
In his last six games, LaVine averaged 35.2 minutes and an absurd 56.1% conversion rate from the field while splashing 40.0% of his triples. This worked out to 29.2 points, 5.0 rebounds, 5.8 assists, and 1.2 combined blocks and steals. Some contenders have to be interested by now, right?
White was also sublime over his last seven games, averaging 34.4 minutes, 22.9 points, 3.3 rebounds, 5.7 assists and 1.1 “stocks,” which makes him a fine pivot away from LaVine for the discount. Nikola Vucevic should be able to push for a 20-10 game and 40 fantasy points against the Wizards with Alex Sarr (illness) questionable and Jonas Valanciunas a turnstile lin the paint.
Chicago is no great shakes on defense, so Kuzma and Poole are tournament options, as is Valanciunas if he starts again. Just don’t be surprised if the key players see shorter rotations in the third or fourth quarter of a close game since winning is really losing this year for Washington.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Pick
Damian Lillard is worth looking at in the sports wagering market for the under on his 6.5 assists prop.
The screenshot of Portfolio EV shows that this wager projects to win 56% of the time. With the -115 odds, that leads to a fantastic 5.1% expected value when accounting for the -128 “True Odds.”
BetRivers, Unibet and SugarHouse are currently offering -115, which exceeds the True Odds of -128 and the -140 (or worse) that most other books are offering.
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Stokastic’s Advanced NBA Statistical Projections have Lillard projected for 35.5 minutes and 6.14 assists. While that median projection is in line with the 6.5 threshold, there, of course, are no partial assists in the NBA, and seven are needed for this bet to fail.
In his six games since missing four tilts, Lillard handed out eight, three, six, seven, five and 12 dimes. Tonight he is facing a tough Orlando squad that has maintained a strong defensive presence, even with several injured players.
Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today
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