Wednesday marks the middle of the week with a nifty nine-game featured slate, tipping off at 7:00 p.m. ET on FanDuel and DraftKings. Let’s get into the top NBA DFS picks and building blocks like Kawhi Leonard, James Harden, Jerami Grant, Deni Avdija, potential value scenarios and MORE!
NBA DFS Picks Today – Building Blocks: Wednesday, Feb. 26
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NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks
Kawhi Leonard: Clippers at Bulls
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 40.4 | FanDuel: 40.01
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 30.1% | FanDuel: 24.4%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $7,200 | FanDuel: $7,800
Q: Kawhi Leonard, why would I play that guy?! A: Exactly.
Circumstances, salaries, injuries and matchups are all the attributes coming together today that should have gamers evaluating the feasibility of rolling with Leonard.
Yes, he is hurt, old and not as effective as he once was. However, he averaged 32.7 minutes over the last four games, with 40-plus fantasy points in the last two.
Tonight the Clippers are in Chicago, squaring off against a depleted Bulls team that will likely be without Nikola Vucevic (calf) and Ayo Dosunmu (shoulder), and Jalen Smith (concussion) and Patrick Williams are already injured. Los Angeles is in a battle to stay out of the Play-In Tournament, with Minnesota, Golden State, Dallas and Sacramento all within two games. The Clips are on a three-game skid, plus their next four games are on the road. The team lost six of the last nine tilts, and leading scorer Norman Powell is out for a fourth consecutive game with a sore knee.
Over the last 10 games, Chicago allowed 118.0 points per 100 possessions, which were the sixth most during this timeframe, while also playing at the fourth-fastest pace. L.A. has been installed as 8.5-point road favorites, but James Harden cannot win this game by himself. In his last four games, Leonard attempted 16.5 field goal attempts with a 43.9% conversion rate, so there is room for improvement, and that is his accessible fantasy upside that could push him towards the 50-fantasy point plateau. Will he get there? Probably not, but something in the upper-40s is absolutely attainable, considering his last four games saw him with 19.8 points, 4.5 rebounds, 3.8 assists, and 1.8 combined blocks and steals. Forget the name and just focus on the salary, matchup with a depleted team, and projected fantasy production.
Harden made the All-Star Game for the first time in three seasons while missing only a trio of tilts along the way — not bad for a perpetually disgruntled 35-year-old who has improved his numbers across the board as compared to last year. Yes, Leonard has missed a lot of games, but The Beard is attempting nearly five more shots per game because Paul George is out of the picture. Look to Harden as another solid building block from the Clippers tonight who can be employed in all formats.
Ivica Zubac is one of many center options who have a strong fantasy point-per-dollar ratio, though he is in that sweet spot of not being a star but also not providing the salary relief of Day’Ron Sharpe or opposing Chicago pivotman Zach Collins. Zubac projects for just over 40 fantasy points on both DraftKings and FanDuel while likely to appear on around 15% of all tournament rosters.
Collins will be wildly popular today since he is likely to be with the first five, manning the center position for Chicago. On Monday, the 27-year-old journeyman posted 30 fantasy points in 27.8 minutes, which is similar to his expectations tonight as long as he reprises the same role.
Sharpe has a similar path to minutes, with Noah Clowney (ankle) missing his 11th game this month and Nicolas Claxton serving a one-game suspension for picking up his sixth flagrant foul point. The 23-year-old has yet to start this season, but he is averaging 1.2 fantasy points per minute in 17.3 minutes off the bench. In 10 games where he logged at least 19.2 minutes, Sharpe has six games of 30-plus fantasy points and another that just missed the cut.
Finally, if Dosunmu remains out, Lonzo Ball is a secondary salary saver. He only played eight minutes in the last game after suffering a cut on his head. More analysis can be found here, making him a compelling option.
Kyle Anderson: Heat vs. Hawks
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 22.72 | FanDuel: 23.47
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 24.5% | FanDuel: 11.5%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $3,400 | FanDuel: $4,200
Kyle Anderson is coming in as placeholder value on the early projection runs. He will likely be replaced as better options emerge with subsequent injury updates, though he is worth discussing for future scenarios.
The journeyman fondly referred to as “Slo-Mo” for his playing style came over from Golden State as part of the Jimmy Butler trade. Nikola Jovic is out with a broken hand, and do-everything Jaimie Jaquez Jr. has not left the bench in four of the last six games.
Neither player is likely to crack the starting lineup with coach Erik Spoelstra seemingly settling on Tyler Herro, Bam Adebayo, Andrew Wiggins, Davion Mitchell and rookie Kel’el Ware. In this same matchup on Monday with Jovic already injured, it was Anderson who was the first reserve off the bench alongside Duncan Robinson. Jaquez had one 7.1-minute rotation in the second quarter, while veteran Alec Burks played 27.2 minutes with the team looking for more scoring and another secondary ball-handler.
Jerami Grant: Trail Blazers at Wizards
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 28.54 | FanDuel: 28.12
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 19.2% | FanDuel: 15.5%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $5,400 | FanDuel: $6,000
In a fun twist, Portland is pushing to reach the Play-In Tournament. If the Trail Blazers were in the Eastern Conference, they would have the 10th-best record. However, they have a long row to hoe in the Western Conference, sitting 4.5 games out of the 10th seed. It is possible given there are six teams within 5.5 games, but the odds are not in their favor.
Tonight Portland is in Washington against the tanking Wizards, Friday the Blazers are in Brooklyn, and there is a winnable game in Philadelphia on Monday.
The Philly faithful at least have the Super Bowl, and baseball is right around the corner, but the cold bucket of reality is that the Trail Blazers (25-33, 43.1%) have a much better record than the Sixers (20-37, 35.1%). Washington ended a six-game slide on Monday with a 107-99 win against Brooklyn, giving them a 10th victory and thusly avoiding the ignominy of having the worst record in league history.
The Wizards are likely to win a few more games down the stretch, with three matchups against Toronto, two against the Jazz, two against Philadelphia, and one more each against Brooklyn and Chicago. Keep in mind that the teams with the three worst records all receive the same lottery odds, and Washington is four games behind Utah and Charlotte, trailing New Orleans by five. The point is that while the Wiz are not really trying to win most nights, they have a cushion if they “accidently” get hot against a good team, plus there are outs to quell any losing streaks before they become unbearable.
Back to DFS, Jerami Grant is finally healthy, and he sets up well for this matchup against a weak Washington frontcourt. Kyle Kuzma and Jonas Valanciunas are in new uniforms, and rookie Alexandre Sarr is dealing with a variety of maladies, which helps with his load management. Sarr is questionable tonight, but even if he plays, the rest of the frontcourt consists of fellow youngsters Kyshawn George, Tristan Vukcevic and Justin Champagnie, with journeyman Richaun Holmes the steadying force.
Robert Williams III and DeAndre Ayton are both out, so Grant could see time as the nominal center when rookie Donovan Clingan is on the bench. Toumani Camara and Jabari Walker could also see time in the post, but Grant should have a clear path to as many minutes as he can handle in a very desirable matchup.
This is a “Remember Me?!” game for Deni Avdija, who is a solid selection on DraftKings. Anfernee Simons looks good on both of the main sites, while Washington’s Jordan Poole is always a tournament target. Khris Middleton and Marcus Smart are expected to be available, but it would be a surprise if Middleton gets more than 26 to 27 minutes, with Smart likely seeing a handful fewer.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Pick
Keegan Murray looks like a player to target for the under on his 5.5 rebounds prop on BetRivers, Unibet and SugarHouse, where it is currently available at plus money with +118 odds.
The screenshot of Portfolio EV shows that this wager has a historical 3.8% ROI, though the confluence of today’s variables, combined with the +118 odds, leads to an elite 8.8% expected value when accounting for the +100 “True Odds.”
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Stokastic’s Advanced NBA Statistical Projections have Murray projected for 31.8 minutes and 6.2 rebounds. This is above the six needed for this wager to lose, but the median projection does not account for a variable range of actual outcomes.
In his last dozen games, Murray averaged 32.4 minutes and 6.2 rebounds, falling shy of six boards five times (42%) and recording six on one other occasion. We can see by pitting the various operators against each other that the trio of BetRivers, Unibet and SugarHouse has gotten out over its skis. Do not wait as the three are likely to fall back into line when money starts coming in on their current offer.
Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today
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