Friday wraps up the work week with a rousing set of NBA matchups, tipping off at 7:00 p.m. ET on FanDuel and DraftKings. Let’s get into the top NBA DFS picks and building blocks, including Jeremy Sochan, Paolo Banchero and thoughts on the developing news situations, as well as the final trio of tilts that are exclusively included in the FanDuel featured contests.
These picks are based on the latest available data. For real-time lineup updates, check out our NBA DFS Starting Lineups Page!
NBA DFS Picks Today – Building Blocks: Friday, March 21
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NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks
Jeremy Sochan: Spurs vs. 76ers
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 31.73 | FanDuel: 30.89
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 57.3% | FanDuel: 43.1%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $5,100 | FanDuel: $5,500
It would be interesting to see if the Houston Cougars or Duke Blue Devils would have a real chance against the current iterations of Philadelphia or San Antonio. Most likely the older and wiser NBA squads would win out, even with the back of the bench, but it is still fun to ponder.
Tonight the sublimely submarining 76ers are in Texas taking on the Spurs, who ceded 127.5 points per 100 possessions in the 11 games since Victor Wembanyama was lost for the season. That is 3 points worse than the next team.
Across the last four without De’Aaron Fox (left little finger), who is also out for the remainder of the season, San Antonio rolled out a deep 9- to 10-man rotation. In these tilts, eight players reached 30 minutes of run, with Devin Vassell clearing that threshold in all four games (33.5 minutes), with Jeremy Sochan (34.3) getting there twice, including a lofty 37.9 minutes in the last game when the Spurs upset the visiting New York Knicks 120-105. In that game, Sochan joined the starters for the first time since early January.
Per the F-R-E-E Stokastic Starting Lineups page, the expectation is that Sochan will remain with the first five, and even taking a measured approach by using 28.6 minutes, the new starting center looks like a strong play. For this matchup, Andre Drummond and Adem Bona are out, which leaves a frontcourt of Guerschon Yabusele — who only made it back to the league due to a strong showing in the Olympics with team France — and recent waiver pickup Oshae Brissett — who had been with the Long Island Nets in the G-League.
Vassell stands out on DraftKings ($6,800, 41.2%), where the featured tournaments are eschewing the final three games of the night. On FanDuel ($7,400, 16.7%), he is less enthralling given the salary algorithm on the blue site already accounting for his steady role among the remainder of the rolling rotation. The rest of the Spurs only have utility on DraftKings, with Keldon Johnson ($4,700, 34.4%) looking steady at mid-20s minutes and Chris Paul ($4,600, 36.7%) a last-man-in type, even with a 23-minute projection. Paul is a placeholder value who averaged 21.8 minutes in the five games preceding the upset of New York.
It is important to mention Stephon Castle, though his salary has him on the outside looking in on both DraftKings ($6,700, 10.5%) and FanDuel ($7,200, 3.7%) since the team is willingly and widely dispersing minutes. In the four games since joining the starters in replacement of Fox, the 20-year-old averaged 30 minutes, 22 points, 3.8 rebounds, 3.5 assists and 1.3 “stocks” (combined blocks and steals). This is a tremendous matchup, though the tentative minutes and rising salary make the fourth overall selection in the most recent NBA Draft a luxury differentiation play at best.
Jared Butler is the top Philadelphia pick on both DraftKings ($6,300, 26.5%) and especially on FanDuel ($5,700, 47.5%), where he comes with a $600 salary savings. This is the fourth team in four years for the 24-year-old who was drafted with the 40th overall selection in 2021. The former Baylor Bear has appeared in only 135 games, though in meaningless action, he has shown he can produce around a fantasy point per minute against inferior competition.
Quentin Grimes has been priced out of contention on DraftKings ($8,800) and FanDuel ($8,000), but for those playing on the secret site (Yahoo, $21), he is a “must play” with his frozen salary. Across his last half dozen games, the former first-rounder averaged 34.1 minutes, 31.8 points, 4.8 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 2.5 steals and 0.8 blocks. This also includes a 59-fantasy point effort in 39 minutes against the Hawks in Atlanta and a 76.8-point masterpiece in 43 minutes against the Rockets in Houston.
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NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks
Paolo Banchero: Magic at Wizards
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 48.18 | FanDuel: 46.51
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 27.3% | FanDuel: 40.1%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $9,900 | FanDuel: $9,200
Despite desperately trying to make the postseason, Orlando has a 4-9 record over the last 13 tilts. In the last 17 games, it was either Paolo Banchero (12) or Franz Wagner (five) leading the team in scoring while also topping the team in assists 14 times.
Tanking Toronto has the 11th-best record in the Eastern Conference, though the Raptors are 5.5 games below the Play-In Tournament cutoff and falling. The Magic have the eighth seed, ahead of Chicago by two games and behind Atlanta by a half game. This is important as the top two Play-In teams get a mulligan to gain access to the first round of the playoffs.
Banchero is performing well, posting a 10% increase in his scoring over last year while also maintaining or slightly improving the rest of his production in similar minutes. He missed over two months in the middle of the season with an oblique injury, though in his nine March outings, he averaged 37.6 minutes and 20.1 field goal attempts with a 49.4% conversion rate, including finding the bottom of the bucket on 40.4% of his 6.3 3-point attempts in this stretch. This culminated in 30.0 points, 7.8 rebounds, 4.4 assists and 1.8 stocks.
Wagner also suffered an oblique injury, sidelining him for nearly six weeks. In his nine appearances this month, he tallied 36.2 minutes, 21.0 points, 5.7 rebounds, 4.0 assists and a stock. Even with this dynamic duo performing well, the team achieved victory in only three of these nine games. Both Cole Anthony and Trevelin Queen missed shootaround today. That puts them on the wrong side of questionable, and if Anthony is out, Wagner will continue to be a key facilitator, which tends to come at the expense of his own offense.
Wendell Carter Jr. averaged four fouls in his last 10 games, which contributed to uneven minutes as he reached five fouls in half of these matchups. If he can keep his hands to himself, he could feast on a young and inexperienced Washington frontcourt. If not, well, he is a trap that can torpedo the hopes and dreams of his supporters.
Speaking of that frontcourt, Tristan Vukcevic is a potential discount dandy on DraftKings ($4,200, 21.5%), though he is out of bounds on FanDuel with better value in the three late games, which are exclusive to the featured tournaments on the blue site.
Since so much is in flux at this point of the season, here are a few other situations to monitor:
New Orleans lost Trey Murphy III for the remainder of the season, though the team has brought back Elfrid Payton on a 10-day contract to back up Jose Alvarado, CJ McCollum and Jordan Hawkins. The team has ruled out Zion Williamson for tonight, but it is hard to be excited about Yves Missi, Kelly Olynyk and Karlo Matkovic against the Timberwolves in Minnesota.
Amen Thompson (ankle) is returning after a six-game absence, which could pinch the minutes for Tari Eason. Make no mistake, Houston is looking to win and the Rockets currently have a slim lead over the Nuggets, Lakers and Grizzlies for the second-best record in the Western Conference. This is the first time the Rockets have been fully healthy in a while, so it is hard to trust minutes for anyone in the rotation as they take their talents to South Beach tonight.
Cade Cunningham gets a great matchup in Dallas with the Mavericks in complete disarray. Detroit is pushing to be a double-digit road favorite, though there is a reason they still play the games. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jayson Tatum are the two most expensive options on DraftKings, but with Oklahoma City hosting the imploding Charlotte Hornets and Boston already a 14-point road favorite against an underwhelming Utah squad, just how much run will these superstars get?
Turning to the three late games, Memphis will again be without Ja Morant (hamstring), and Brandon Clarke (knee) is out as well. The Clippers need wins, though they are still going to have to earn this one with Desmond Bane, Jaren Jackson Jr., James Harden, Kawhi Leonard and Ivica Zubac each projecting for 10% to 20% on the blue site.
Nikola Jokic is out again tonight, and Jamal Murray is questionable. That leaves a delightful situation for the rest of the Denver lineup in a cherry matchup. Aaron Gordon, Russell Westbrook, Christian Braun and Michael Porter Jr. are all solid plays, who each will see between an 8% to 10% boost if Murray is out.
Portland is missing an entire frontcourt with Robert Williams III done for the year, Deandre Ayton in the same boat for all intents and purposes, and Jabari Walker in the concussion protocol. Oh, Jerami Grant is also doubtful, which means Donovan Clingan will be the primary post player without having to defend Jokic. The Trail Blazers have been handing out inconsistent minutes, though the starters have been getting run in the upper-20s with the team on a three-game winning streak and playing tough at home.
If the Blazers were in the Eastern Conference, they would be working from a position of strength to make the Play-In Tournament. They still have a chance in the Western Conference with Phoenix and Dallas maintaining a two-game edge. Phoenix has the tiebreaker over the Mavericks, who are all but assured of falling behind Portland before the end of the season. Though the Trail Blazers have their own pick, tanking does not really get them any lottery advantage since they have the best record among non-playoff teams and the gap is too hard to close. The team is in “asset protection” mode but at least not completely tanking — yet.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Pick
Tonight we can focus on Jayson Tatum’s under 43.5 points + rebounds + assists prop on Hard Rock. It never feels good wagering against the best player on the reigning world champions, but the math is on our side.
The screenshot of Portfolio EV show that with the combination of today’s matchup variables and the -115 odds, there is a fantastic 4.9% expected value when factoring in the -128 “True Odds” and6.3% historical ROI.
We can see that sharp book Pinnacle has this wager down at -144, with some of the other operators dropping to 42.5 PRA at a similar offering as Hard Rock.
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Stokastic’s Advanced NBA Statistical Projections have Tatum projected for 32.9 minutes, 26.92 points, 7.99 rebounds and 6.22 assists for 41.13 PRA. That is well below the 44 needed for this wager to fail, plus we know that Utah has no designs on winning this game.
There is always the chance that Tatum could get a night off, or perhaps it could be Derrick White or Jrue Holiday, though even with Jaylen Brown out as he manages a knee injury, it is unlikely that the Jazz put up much of a fight despite being in Salt Lake City. In his last four games, Tatum averaged 38.3 minutes and 43.3 PRA, with two games above 44 PRA and one hitting that mark exactly.
Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today
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