Wednesday’s NBA action tips off at 7:00 p.m. ET on FanDuel and DraftKings. Let’s get into the top NBA DFS picks and building blocks, including Nikola Jokic, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Anthony Edwards and the dregs of the Utah Jazz!
These picks are based on the latest available information. For the most current lineup updates, be sure to check out our NBA DFS Starting Lineups Page!
NBA DFS Picks Today – Building Blocks: Wednesday, March 5
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NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks
Nikola Jokic: Nuggets vs. Kings
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 64.81 | FanDuel: 61.93
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 20.8% | FanDuel: 12.5%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $12,200 | FanDuel: $12,700
Two important things with Nikola Jokic: 1) He gets a matchup against Jonas Valanciunas, and 2) he is questionable tonight. Regarding the former point, Jokic has three consecutive triple-doubles against JoVal. As for the second, well, it would not be a surprise for Jaylen Brown or Jayson Tatum to get a night off against Portland, which could create an alternative top-tier play for those feeling risk averse.
Other pivots away from Joker include Giannis Antetokounmpo in Milwaukee against a depleted Dallas squad that is now without Kyrie Irving (ACL) for the rest of this season and likely most of next year. This is a back-to-back for Antetokounmpo, though only the second game in four days, and he logged a reasonable 33.8 minutes last night, leading the Bucks to a 127-121 victory in Atlanta.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams are available on FanDuel and DraftKings, while the Clippers and Pistons are only on the blue site, which elected the final game of the docket in their featured-tournament player pool.
Julius Randle is likely to get a rest day after playing 33.7 minutes on Sunday and 30.6 last night against Philadelphia. He is coming off a 13-game absence, and he is going to need to be at his apex performance level if the Timberwolves want any hope of a postseason run. Rudy Gobert has been out for the last three weeks with back spasms, though he could return tonight. Either way, he should not impact Anthony Edwards from being another potential alternative to Jokic.
Spencer Dinwiddie is looking like an interesting play, but the Mavericks may be shorthanded enough that the offense becomes less than functional. The team is without Irving, Anthony Davis, PJ Washington, Daniel Gafford, Dereck Lively II, Jaden Hardy and Dante Exum. Plus the Dallas fans have to watch Luka Doncic and Quentin Grimes performing well for their new franchises, and Moses Brown could not be signed to a second 10-day contract.
This is Dinwiddie’s 11th NBA campaign, and he has been with four franchises over the last five seasons, including second turns in Brooklyn and now Dallas. We know what we are getting, and it is not much of a DFS darling when the rest of the rotation is bereft of talent. Sorry, not sorry to Naji Marshall, Klay Thompson, Max Christie, Kai Jones, Olivier-Maxence Prosper and Kessler Edwards.
NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks
Kyle Filipowski: Jazz at Wizards
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 29.59 | FanDuel: 28.13
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 18.8% | FanDuel: 13.9%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $5,500 | FanDuel: $5,900
Tonight we have a matchup between two of the most aggressive tanking teams in the league, with Utah in our nation’s capital as a 4.5-point underdog to Washington.
Keep in mind that the teams with the three worst records receive an equal share of ping pong balls in the draft lottery process. The Wizards are 11-49, which is three games below Charlotte, four worse than the Jazz and basically lightyears away from New Orleans (17-45), with the Pelicans having won five of their last eight games.
Utah has already ruled out Lauri Markkanen, John Collins, Walker Kessler, Collin Sexton and Jordan Clarkson, which in turn opens up ample minutes for the understudies. The important thing to remember with Utah is that it still has plenty of players. On March 2, when the Jazz rested these same five players, the rotation ran 10 deep, even in the first quarter. Svi Mykhailiuk was also a healthy DNP-CD, which leaves one additional option lurking in the shadows.
Keyonte George is the only trustworthy player coming off the bench. Even when the Jazz employed their shenanigans previously, George typically came off the bench, while rookie Isaiah Collier was the starter. This duo has been sharing the point guard role with Sexton out while also getting 4 to 6 minutes together on the court in games without Clarkson. In a fun wrinkle, both games Clarkson a couple weeks ago missed went to overtime, with the youngsters both playing the full extra period. Each should push for 30 minutes tonight, barring any unforeseen wrinkles.
Brice Sensabaugh is a risky option; if he starts, he should play around 24 minutes. If he is not starting, then that could easily slide to the mid-teens. This is a similar story for Johnny Juzang, who actually started four of the last five games, though in those performances he saw 16.5, 21.3, 18.4 and 23.4 minutes. There are also scenarios where Oscar Tshiebwe, KJ Martin and Micah Potter could push for around 20 minutes of run, based on their effectiveness. Yikes!
Kyle Filipowski is the most desirable Jazz player tonight, though his salary has ticked up with his recent play. In his last four starts, he averaged 32.5 minutes and 10.5 field goal attempts with a 58.6% success rate. This worked out to 16.3 points, 10.0 rebounds, 4.3 assists, and 0.8 combined blocks and steals. Having power forward eligibility on FanDuel is particularly helpful.
Washington will be without Jordan Poole, plus Kyshawn George (jaw) and Richaun Holmes (knee) are questionable. This has Khris Middleton looking like a foundational play with additional scoring and facilitation opportunities while in a premium matchup. Even though he is projected for 25.2 minutes, he is expected to be on nearly 30% of all DraftKings ($5,500) lineups and something in the low-20% range on FanDuel ($6,100). In his last two games, he averaged nearly 33 fantasy points on 23 minutes of run.
Rookie Alexandre Sarr is a wild card, playing minutes in the mid-20s, with 25.5, 25.6, 26 and 31.6 in his last four games, most recent listed first. Even if Richaun Holmes is out, it does not seem like Washington is interested in overworking the second selection in the 2024 NBA Draft. Still, this is a dreamy matchup without Kessler, Collins and Markkanen to contend with tonight. Fellow rookie Carlton Carrington III is the better target, when considering positionality, though he is unlikely to produce much more than mid-30s fantasy points on the main DFS sites. Caveat Emptor.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Pick
Tonight we can look to the under for Desmond Bane’s 23.5 points prop on Fanatics, where this wager is available at -115, which is dramatically better than any other sportsbook by at least 6% or more.
The screenshot of Portfolio EV shows that this wager has a historical 7.4% ROI. The combination of today’s matchup variables, along with the -115 odds, results in a stellar 4.8% expected value when factoring in the -127 “True Odds.”
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Stokastic’s Advanced NBA Statistical Projections have Bane projected for 35.3 minutes and 20.54 points. This projection is based on teammates Ja Morant, Santi Aldama and Scotty Pippen Jr. being questionable and, of course, Jaren Jackson Jr. being out.
Even if Morant and others are out, that just means that the Oklahoma City defense will be easily able to key on Bane with terrific defenders such as Luguentz Dort, Alex Caruso, Cason Wallace, Aaron Wiggins and, of course, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today
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