Monday brings a new week, with the NBA action getting underway are 7:00 p.m. ET on FanDuel and DraftKings. Given the variables in play as the NBA season progresses, we are looking into the best NBA DFS building blocks and picks for today. Let’s break down Monday’s options like Mark Williams, Jose Alvarado and others from a variety of teams.
NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Monday, Feb. 3
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NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks
Jose Alvarado: Pelicans at Nuggets
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 29.68 | FanDuel: 29.46
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 52.2% | FanDuel: 69.2%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $4,800 | FanDuel: $4,800
Dejounte Murray is done for the year after tearing his right Achilles tendon. That compounds the absence of Brandon Ingram with two of four key pillars from this offense on the sidelines.
Jordan Hawkins is questionable with an illness, though even if he plays, Jose Alvarado is going to be wildly popular tonight, and he is one of the best building blocks in all formats.
“Grand Theft Alvarado” is always fun when he gets sustained minutes since he has a proclivity for collecting steals and the inconsistent playing time tends to keep his salary below average. Once the salary algorithms begin to acknowledge Alvarado’s increased role, his DFS appeal will fall by the wayside. Enjoy for the next few games, but this is only a situational recommendation.
Trey Murphy III is coming off back-to-back 50-fantasy point efforts, and while he isn’t going to continue his torrid shooting (28 of 37, 75.7%), he should continue to operate at an elevated level, at least until Ingram comes back. Murphy is averaging 22.1 points per game this season, which is a career high, as are his 16.0 field goal attempts, 5.1 rebounds, 3.1 assists, and 2.0 combined blocks and steals. Denver plays at a top-5 pace with a bottom-10 defensive efficiency rating on the season, and the Pelicans are even more fantasy friendly.
Aaron Gordon played 30 minutes in each of the last three games, which is a bonus for his ridiculously low salary. After missing nine games with a calf issue, Gordon has been ramping up his workload. The last three games also included a back-to-back, so we should not be concerned about the run, and it is only a matter of time before the production follows.
Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. are solid selections with Russell Westbrook on the shelf. Christian Braun also gets a bump in minutes and offensive opportunities filling in for the Mr. Triple-Double. Peyton Watson is going to miss the next month with a sprained right knee, which takes one more key reserve out of the picture.
Speaking of triple-doubles, Nikola Jokic is the coveted option tonight, and there will be enough value to accommodate his $12,300 DraftKings salary without too much trouble. FanDuel does come with the added opportunity cost of missing out on other strong fantasy point-per-dollar center options. Jokic has the 10th-best fantasy point ratio on the blue site, though he is surpassed by fellow center-only options like Jalen Duren, Myles Turner, Isaiah Hartenstein, Jonas Valanciunas and our next recommended player below.
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Mark Williams: Hornets vs. Wizards
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 48.28 | FanDuel: 48.15
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 23.8% | FanDuel: 50.5%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $8,400 | FanDuel: $7,800
Mark Williams has arrived! Over his last eight games, he averaged 32.2 minutes and 14.6 field goal attempts with a 58.1% success rate. This culminated in 21.4 points, 12.8 rebounds, 3.4 assists, and 2.7 combined blocks and steals.
In plainer terms, he has crossed over the 50-fantasy point threshold in six of these eight games.
The Washington frontcourt is simply not equipped to deal with Williams, and anything less than another 50-burger should be considered a complete disappointment. Miles Bridges is a secondary tournament target on FanDuel ($8,200, 23.6%), though he can be skipped over on DraftKings ($9,000, 2.0%), where it will be almost impossible to return a profit on his lofty salary, even with the absence of LaMelo Ball in a delightfully fantasy-friendly matchup.
Jordan Poole is a tournament wild card with his fortunes tethered to his ability to put the biscuit in the basket. He is averaging a career-best 20.7 points and 4.8 assists per game but still breaking his backers hearts more often than not.
Sacramento is running thin tonight after trading De’Aaron Fox to San Antonio yesterday. Minnesota is a strong defense, but there is still room for upside with Malik Monk, DeMar DeRozan, Keegan Murray and Domantas Sabonis. Their utility varies by positional need and salary, depending on your DFS site of choice, so let those parameters be your guide. If Keon Ellis starts as expected, he will be the punt du jour.
Memphis may be without Ja Morant (shoulder) for a third consecutive game, and Desmond Bane tweaked his ankle last night in Milwaukee. Depending on their availability, various Grizzlies may come into play against San Antonio. The Spurs were without Victor Wembanyama (illness) on Saturday, and he is questionable for tonight’s action. If he is in, he is yet another strong top-shelf selection. If he is out, then Charles Bassey is likely to get all the minutes he can handle, with Zach Collins having been shipped off to Chicago alongside Tre Jones as part of the three-team deal for Fox.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Pick
Amen Thompson is popping in the model for the under on his 4.5 assists prop tonight against the Knicks in Madison Square Garden.
The screenshot of Portfolio EV shows that this wager projects to win 55% of the time. That combined with the -111 odds on FanDuel leads to a favorable 4.2% expected value when accounting for the -121 “True Odds.”
Stokastic’s Advanced NBA Statistical Projections have Thompson projected for 37.5 minutes and 4.48 assists. Over the last 13 games, Thompson averaged a ridiculous 38.8 minutes and 4.5 assists per game, which is right in line with tonight’s target.
That kind of playing time can lead to extra counting stats, though on average it has not really impacted his assist total. He had five or more helpers in five of these 13 (38.4%) game, landing on exactly five three times. This wager is likely to go down to the wire, but the math and opponent are in our favor.
Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today
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