Tuesday keeps the week moving along with a four-game featured-slate at 7:30 p.m. ET on FanDuel and DraftKings. With so many variables at play as the NBA season progresses, today’s focus is identifying the best NBA DFS building blocks and top picks. Let’s break down Tuesday’s options like Tyrese Maxey and the 76ers understudies playing a large role, while the aging dynamic duo for the Lakers is looking to win a second road game in 24 hours.
NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Tuesday, Jan. 28
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NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks
Ricky Council IV: 76ers vs. Lakers
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 24.5 | FanDuel: 24.15
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 39.9% | FanDuel: 63.2%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $4,300 | FanDuel: $4,300
The 76ers continue to put the fun in dysfunction, with Paul George regularly missing games. He did play in the last back-to-back game set, playing 36.2 minutes and then 12.7 the following night due to injuring the little finger on his left hand.
This added to the lengthy list of hurt players, including Joel Embiid, Caleb Martin, Andre Drummond, Jared McCain and KJ Martin, making Philadelphia a value source.
Los Angeles had a 10-5 record over the last 15 games, but the overall team defense is in the bottom third of the league, allowing 114.7 points per 100 possessions in this timeframe. The offense hummed with 117.1 points per 100 possessions in this span, which is a top-10 rate. Philly is slightly worse by both metrics, which should offset this being a back-to-back for the Lakers.
Ricky Council IV was solid in his last two spot starts with 39 and 28 fantasy points. That was around a fantasy point per minute, though the sample size is still pretty small. The more appropriate expectation is around 0.8 fantasy points per minute, making him the punt du jour.
Justin Edwards should also continue to see 20 to 30 minutes off the bench, though the undrafted two-way player has not done much since Jan. 14 when he hung 41 fantasy points on Oklahoma City in a game where George, Embiid, both Martins and Tyrese Maxey were all unavailable. In the six games since then, he averaged 28.9 minutes but only 7.3 field goal attempts, 8.3 points, 3.5 rebounds, 1.0 assists, and 1.5 combined blocks and steals. He is closer to a 0.7-fantasy point-per-minute player, but at his bargain salary, he is very much in play as a punt option tonight.
Maxey continues to be a strong performer, posting similar stats to last year’s All-Star campaign. He leads the league with 37.9 minutes per game, ranks third with 21.4 field goal attempts per game and seventh with 26.6 points while averaging the third-most steals in the league. Enjoy!
Kelly Oubre Jr. is mercurial when it comes to fantasy production, with three games below 24 fantasy points and six games of 35-plus in his last 10 appearances. This has him as a secondary tournament target with the eight-team player pool, while Guerschon Yabusele and his rising salary and the aging Kyle Lowry are differentiation pieces.
This is a back-to-back for the Lakers after they won a nailbiter in Charlotte 112-107 last night. Anthony Davis had a monster stat line with 42 points, 23 rebounds, two assists and two blocks in 37 minutes, and indications are that both he and LeBron James will be available tonight. The Lakers need to win this game, which is plausible as 4-point road favorites. The team is on a four-game winning streak and had victories in six of the last seven games. They next play on Thursday in Washington, where it would not be a surprise to see one of the superstars get a night off.
Rui Hachimura is back after missing Monday’s thriller, so it remains to be seen if he or Dorian Finney-Smith will be in the starting lineup. My best guess is that it will be Hachimura, but things are also crowded with Jarred Vanderbilt back in the mix, though he has been ruled out on this back-to-back as he regains conditioning from his foot injury that required surgery. Austin Reaves and Max Christie are neutral options, as is whoever is in the starting lineup between the other forwards.
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Damian Lillard: Bucks at Trail Blazers
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 45.34 | FanDuel: 43.37
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 39.3% | FanDuel: 10.5%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $8,700 | FanDuel: $9,800
Tonight Damian Lillard is back in his old stomping grounds with a major salary discrepancy on DraftKings and FanDuel, which is why it is important to understand how each site works with roster limits, salary caps and, of course, how fantasy points are awarded.
Last night the former Weber State star was in Utah, tying Giannis Antetokounmpo with a team-leading 35 points.
Lillard played 41 minutes and Antetokounmpo logged 37, though neither is on the injury report for Tuesday. It is expected that Khris Middleton will sit out on this back-to-back, and Bobby Portis is questionable, having been away from the team for a couple days tending to a personal matter. Depending on who is available, the Bucks will likely offer other tournament options, though only Lillard (DraftKings) and Giannis (anywhere) are priority plays. Milwaukee won nine of the last 11 games, but like the Lakers, it needs to bank wins in advance of the next injury to one of its dynamic duo.
Portland is hard to analyze without knowing the status of Deandre Ayton, and the same can be said for Utah, which has been unabashedly tanking and resting players, even when the Jazz are not on back-to-backs. If Lauri Markkanen, Collins Sexton and/or any of the other regular starters play, they are viable options. If they sit, then we could see more value arising with the understudies getting elevated roles.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Pick
LeBron James is someone to consider targeting for the under on his 7.5 rebounds prop against the 76ers in this back-to-back roadie.
The screenshot of Portfolio EV shows that this wager projects to win 60% of the time. That combined with the -125 odds on DraftKings leads to strong 7.1% expected value when accounting for the -147 “True Odds.”
Stokastic’s Advanced NBA Statistical Projections have James projected for 34.6 minutes and 7.45 rebounds. That is right in line with the median projection, though still below the eight needed for this wager to fail.
In his last 14 games, LeBron had eight or more rebounds four times. He corralled double-digit caroms in each of those outings and also collected seven rebounds twice. Philadelphia is missing its two best rebounders, though the counterargument is that James is 40 years old on a back-to-back, as well as playing for the third time in four nights and the fourth time in six. If this game is lopsided in either direction, James is also at risk of losing playing time on his final rotation in the fourth quarter. This wager is likely to be nip-and-tuck to the end, but the math is in our favor.
Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today
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