Friday wraps up the workweek with a seven-game featured slate, with the fun tipping off at 7:00 p.m. ET on FanDuel and DraftKings. Let’s get into the top NBA DFS picks and building blocks, including Josh Giddy and Colby White in a great home matchup, trying to stay ahead of Miami for the better Play-In Tournament seeding. The Heat are on the road in Philadelphia, making Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo strong plays as well.
These picks are based on the latest available data. For real-time lineup updates, check out our NBA DFS Starting Lineups Page!
NBA DFS Picks Today – Building Blocks: Friday, March 29
NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks
Josh Giddey: Bulls vs. Mavericks
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 49.31 | FanDuel: 47.23
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 58.3% | FanDuel: 43.1%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $9,200 | FanDuel: $9,700
Shockingly, there are postseason implications as Chicago hosts the Dallas Mavericks tonight. The Bulls remain one game ahead of the Miami Heat, holding on to the ninth-seed, which is key, since that means homecourt advantage in the first Play-In game. There are nine games left for most teams, which has Chicago as a long shot to gain 1.5 games on Orlando or two games on Atlanta, to move up the ranks. It is not impossible and it all starts with a win tonight.
The Mavs are three-point road dogs, which goes to show how dramatic the presence of Anthony Davis is for this decimated roster. After missing 18 games with a left adductor strain, Davis has played in two of the last three tilts, averaging 28 minutes and 14 field goal attempts, with 13.5 points, 6.5 rebounds, 2.5 assists and 1.5 “stocks” (combined blocks and steals). Conventional wisdom has the future Hall of Famer pushing towards 30 minutes tonight, though there is no reason for Dallas to force things in this lost season. That makes Davis a tough click for DFS tournaments, though anything that keeps this game more competitive should help push the Chicago core players into more minutes.
In his last 13 games, Josh Giddey has been on a heater, averaging 35 minutes and 14.8 field goal attempts, with a 53.1% conversion rate. This includes a 51.7% success rate on 4.5 3-pointers per appearance, leading to 22.8 points, 10.5 rebounds, 9.2 assists and 2.4 stocks. The Australian has a troika of triple-doubles in this timeframe, including two in his last three games. The escalating salary is wild, but when just focusing on the production, it is appropriate.
Nikola Vucevic should be able to thrive against the depleted Dallas frontcourt, despite the return of Davis. Dereck Lively II and Daniel Gafford are getting closer to a return, though it is unlikely to happen tonight. Olivier-Maxence Prosper is out for the remainder of the season and Kai Jones (hip) is banged up, with Dwight Powell not doing much more than looking like a statue on the court.
Vucevic has only one 50-fantasy point effort in his last six games, though he has another two with 40 fantasy points and he is further removed from missing time, which is leading to a return to 30ish minutes per night as a baseline.
Coby White has really stepped up with Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan now in Sacramento, posting a career-best 20.4 points per game. Looking at his last 11 games, he has averaged 30.2 points, 4.4 rebounds, 4.1 assists and 0.7 stocks, in a strong 36.3 minutes per appearance. He too has seen an increase to his salary, checking in at $8,100 on both DraftKings and FanDuel, with an expected 15% popularity in the featured tournaments on both sites.
Kevin Huerter and Patrick Williams are neutral options on DraftKings and FanDuel. Rookie Matas Buzelis is out of play on the main sites, but somehow his salary seems to be hardcoded at $13 on Yahoo. Sadly the tournaments have really dried up on the “secret site” though for those still playing, Buzelis is a core click.
Per the F-R-E-E Stokastic Starting Lineups page, the expectation Jones and PJ Washington will be available and starting, while Spencer Dinwiddie and Klay Thompson round out the first five with Davis. None of these players is making the cut on DraftKings, with the models having slight interest in Washington and Thompson on FanDuel. Washington has missed the last two games, after playing nearly 35 minutes in the preceding four contests. Prior to that he was available for only five of 19 games, dealing with an ankle issue and a couple other minor maladies.
Stokastic’s NBA DFS Single Lineup Simulator is a groundbreaking tool that revolutionizes lineup building by providing data-driven simulations, making it a must-have for serious players. Check out how the Simulator evaluates this single lineup for today’s slate:
NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks
Tyler Herro: Heat at 76ers
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 44.91 | FanDuel: 42.83
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 45.8% | FanDuel: 44.7%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $8,300 | FanDuel: $8,400
Miami has won the last three games, which has helped remove the sting from the preceding 10-game losing streak. As inferred above, that swoon allowed the Bulls to move ahead in the standings, though with winnable games tonight in Philadelphia and on Monday in Washington, do not expect the Heat to go quietly into the night.
Since trading Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro have had to do the heavy lifting for Miami. Adebayo has the safer floor, while Herro has the more frequently accessed upside.
Andrew Wiggins is out, along with Duncan Robinson and Nikola Jovic continues to convalesce. Alec Burks is dinged up as well, so there could be a surprise starter, in addition to Haywood Highsmith, who recently was promoted to the first five. That means some sort of value is likely to emerge, so be sure to watch the Stokastic NBA Live Before Lock Show at 6:00 p.m. ET on YouTube for all the updated analysis.
Rookie Kel’el Ware should be able to push for a double-double against the pitiful Philadelphia frontcourt, though there are several centers with appealing fantasy point per dollar ratios tonight. Over the last 10 games, the 76ers have allowed 124.4 points per 100 possessions, which is nearly unfathomable.
Even with all of the moving parts, Miami has mostly stabilized on defense, allowing 108.5 points per 100 possessions over the last five games. That makes things a little tough to like any of the ‘Sixers, even with the top six players essentially done for the season. Lonnie Walker IV is expected to return, after being in the concussion protocol, as well as dealing with a neck strain. That crowds things a little for the rest of the understudies, who have seen their salaries all elevate for their new roles
Justin Edwards and Ricky Council IV are the most popular options on DraftKings, with the latter being the only player with double-digit projected popularity on FanDuel. Quentin Grimes is a pivot away from Giddey, though with the tougher matchup and shorter track record, it is a pretty thin strategy.
There should be enough Saturday shenanigans that it will be easy to roster at least one of Luka Doncic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander or LeBron James. Adding in a second depends on getting at least one extreme discount dandy that is yet to be revealed, otherwise the popularity will continue to consolidate with Giddey, Adebayo and Herro, for the more palatable salaries.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
Tonight we can look to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the under for his 48.5 points + rebounds + assists (PRA) prop at Hard Rock.
With the combination of today’s matchup variables and the -125 odds, there is a steady 3.6% expected value when factoring in the -136 “True Odds,” along with the 6.3% historical ROI.
Portfolio EV does all the heavy lifting when sorting through the endless opportunities across the various sports wagering operators, highlighting the best spots quickly and effortlessly.
Stokastic’s Advanced NBA Statistical Projections have Gilgeous-Alexander projected for 35.1 minutes, 35.16 points, 4.91 rebounds and 6.99 assists for 47.06 PRA. Oklahoma City has been installed as double-digit home favorites, even with Chet Holmgren, Aaron Wiggins and Ousmane Dieng out, while accounting for Jaylin Williams and Alex Caruso being dinged up. Jalen Williams is back, which is going to impact SGA’s rates, even with Holmgren and Wiggins out.
Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 46.9 PRA in his last 12 games, while logging 34.8 minutes of run. However, in only four of these appearances has the presumptive NBA MVP produced more than 49 PRA. This wager is likely to go down to the wire, though the math is in our favor.
Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today
Tune into the Stokastic NBA Live Before Lock Show at 6:00 p.m. ET on YouTube for expert analysis, key insights and winning strategies to dominate tonight’s NBA DFS slate!
