Sunday brings the NBA ruckus at 6:00 p.m. ET on FanDuel and DraftKings. Let’s get into the top NBA DFS picks and building blocks, including Jeremy Sochan, Devin Vassell, Alperen Sengun, Aaron Gordon, Jamal Murray and more!
These picks are based on the latest available data. For real-time lineup updates, check out our NBA DFS Starting Lineups Page!
NBA DFS Picks Today – Building Blocks: Sunday, March 23
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NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks
Jeremy Sochan: Spurs at Raptors
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 35.9 | FanDuel: 35.01
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 72.4% | FanDuel: 49.3%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $5,400 | FanDuel: $6,300
Sunday winds down Jeremy Sochan week with the 21-year-old seemingly having the most secure minutes for the submarining San Antonio Spurs (s/o to David “The Admiral” Robinson).
Technically, the Spurs are not tanking as egregiously as several of the bottom feeders, though the team does control its own lottery pick. San Antonio won four of the last six games, though only the 120-105 surprise upset of the New York Knicks was against a team that was trying.
That coincided with Sochan rejoining the first five, and in his two appearances, he averaged 36.5 minutes and 15.5 field goal attempts, 16.5 points, 7.5 rebounds, 2.5 assists and half a steal. Expecting minutes in the low-30s is reasonable, with a chance for a couple more, depending on the whims of interim coach Mitch Johnson. There is some trepidation with this game being in Toronto, so there are no hometown fans to appease, which means Sochan’s run is likely based on him garnering more experience in the post to help play off of Victor Wembanyama next season.
Stephon Castle is dramatically outpacing the rest of his Draft class for NBA Rookie of the Year honors. He is listed as -700 at several books, with the next closest competitors well behind, including Zaccharie Risacher (+1500) and Memphis teammates Zach Edey (+2800) and Jaylen Wells (+3000). There is no need for San Antonio to overwork the former UConn Husky, so expect something approaching 30 minutes tonight. Since he moved into the starting unit, replacing De’Aaron Fox (finger surgery), he has averaged 30.9 minutes, 21 points, four rebounds, 5.6 assists and 1.8 “stocks” (combined blocks and steals). That works out to just over a fantasy point per minute, though unlike Sochan, the fantasy algorithms on DraftKings ($6,800, 13.8%) and FanDuel ($7,400, 10.8%) have already acknowledged his new role, dampening his DFS appeal.
Devin Vassell is the last San Antonio player worthy of our attention who is seeing consistent minutes, with nearly 34 per game in his 12 appearances this month, which is in line with his 35 minutes over the last four games. Again, the Spurs are not trying to win, but they are trying to let their young core gel so they will be able to level up next year when Fox and Wembanyama are healthy. Vassell contributes around a fantasy point per minute, with his small forward eligibility making him more appealing than Castle, despite a similar salary cap hit and fantasy outlook.
In summary, this trio is solid for tournaments, particularly against a terrible Toronto squad that is not interested in playing defense. The main risk is with their minutes upside, though each can produce a tournament worthy score with a little efficiency and luck in their expected 30-ish minutes tonight.
Per the F-R-E-E Stokastic Starting Lineups page, the expectation is that the first five for the Raptors will be Jamal Shead, RJ Barrett, Scottie Barnes, Jonathan Mogbo and Colin Castleton. Barrett has missed five of the last eight games, including the most recent trio of tilts as Toronto has gone into “asset protection” mode with the former Duke Blue Devil. Unlike Barnes, Barrett does not meet the Association’s criteria of being a “star,” which is a player who has been named to the All-Star Game or the All-NBA team in the last three years. Obviously, this has not limited tanking at all, but it does help explain why it seems some players have a different standard than others. It is because they actually are in a different category, hence the main driving force for Utah being fined for sitting Lauri Markkanen but Toronto being allowed to continually sit Barrett for “reasons.”
The Raptors have employed a minutes limit strategy that is being picked up by several of the other cellar-dwellers in playing someone like Barnes, but keeping a cap on his minutes and having him watch the game from the bench in the fourth quarter, even in close games. Yes, he did play 33.5 minutes in a close 117-114 loss in San Francisco to the Warriors on Thursday, but his five preceding starts saw him with 30.5, 27.6, 24.3, 25.5 and 27.2 minutes. Tread lightly.
Even a developmental player like Orlando Robinson has not been safe, with his minutes sliding from 34.3, to 29.9, to 20.8, to a surprise DNP-CD against Golden State. Part of the reason that Robinson sat was likely due to Jakob Poeltl starting, but the veteran center has been ruled out for Sunday, along with Immanuel Quickley for rest. Gradey Dick is out for at least two more games, as is Jared Rhoden. Rookie Ja’Kobe Walter is questionable, having missed the last seven games. AJ Lawson is on a two-way contract, so he could be active, if needed.
The secondary players for Toronto are the safest, particularly if in the starting lineup. Just do not expect more than 26 to 28 minutes from the likes of Castleton, Mogbo, Robinson, Battle, Shead or Walter. The salaries are low enough to support these players being sprinkled across a player portfolio, as long as gamers understand the risk/reward proposition.
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NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks
Alperen Sengun: Rockets vs. Nuggets
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 45.13 | FanDuel: 44.79
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 12.1% | FanDuel: 14.9%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $9,100 | FanDuel: $9,100
Anything less than a 20-10 game from Alperen Sengun will be considered a disappointment tonight with Nikola Jokic (ankle) missing a fourth consecutive game. Sengun has a lofty salary, which makes him a luxury option, but the tournament differentiation is gold.
Houston is 9-2 this month when Sengun plays, with the 22-year-old averaging 33.3 minutes, 19.5 points, 10.1 rebounds, 5.1 assists and 1.8 stocks. Zeke Nnaji lacks the size and skill to stick with Sengun, so expect the Nuggets to roll “five out” with Aaron Gordon, Michael Porter Jr. and Peyton Watson serving as the “nominal” center.
For those wondering about an appearance by Deandre Jordan or Dario Saric, that veteran duo has not seen the court in weeks, even with Jokic missing time. Sengun has excellent mobility and a well-rounded game, which should keep him on the court against the Nuggets.
Dillon Brooks, Jalen Green and Amen Thompson are tertiary targets on FanDuel, with Fred VanVleet being the only intriguing dart throw on DraftKings.
The Nuggets have a lot of appeal, needing to fill in everything left behind by the face of the franchise and three-time NBA MVP. That has Gordon, Porter and Jamal Murray looking like desirable DFS selections, with Gordon being a core play across the industry.
Christian Braun and Russell Westbrook will be helping with secondary facilitation and scoring when any of the key regulars are off the court, which has them in the mix tonight as well. Watson is a longshot since his minutes are tenuous, the potential for foul trouble high and he is likely to be playing out of position.
FanDuel is skipping the final game of the night, which has the Clippers hosting the Oklahoma City Thunder in Los Angeles. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has moved into the lead for the NBA MVP race, and he is currently sitting at -850 on FanDuel, while Jokic has slipped to +500 as he goes for a fourth trophy in five years. No other player is even close in this competition, with Jayson Tatum and Giannis Antetokounmpo each at +50000.
OKC has a 12.5-game cushion over the rest of the Western Conference, along with a two-game lead on Cleveland for the best record in the league. Jalen Williams remains out; however, the Thunder are 3.5-point road favorites tonight with the next game in Sacramento, so the expectation is that they will be playing as usual. That has SGA with the highest median fantasy point projection on DraftKings, making him a strong tournament target.
Atlanta is on a back-to-back, having bested the visiting Dubs 124-115 last night. Trae Young, Dyson Daniels and Onyeka Okongwu played around 35 minutes, though none are on the early injury report other than Caris LeVert, who just returned to action and there is the expectation that he is not playing on consecutive days. Philadelphia is going to be without the usual suspects, plus Lonnie Walker IV (concussion) and Adem Bona (ankle).
Look to Guerschon Yabusele as a salary saver, though keep in mind his minutes are allegedly being monitored. Justin Edwards, Jared Butler, Ricky Council IV, Chuma Okeke and Oshae Brissett are potential options, depending on other news and, of course, who is in the starting lineup. The same goes for Atlanta, who could look to rest someone.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Pick
Russell Westbrook is a viable DFS target, but we should also consider the under for his 6.5 assists prop on BetRivers.
The screenshot of Portfolio EV shows that with the combination of today’s matchup variables and the -103 odds, there is a tremendous 10.4% expected value when factoring in the -127 “True Odds” and 8.7% historical ROI.
We can see that sharp book Pinnacle has this wager listed with a punitive line of -156 which makes the BetRivers offer so desirable. Be a savvy shopper!
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Stokastic’s Advanced NBA Statistical Projections have Westbrook projected for 33.7 minutes and 6.36 assists, which is right around the target but below the seven needed for this wager to lose. This accounts for Jokic being out, though with Murray available, Westbrook is more needed for his energy, drives to the basket and relentless rebounding than actually running the show.
To his credit, he does have a strong 30.3% assist rate in 330 minutes alongside Murray with Jokic off the court, but again, that is not his most likely path to relevance tonight. This wager will definitely come down to the wire, but the math is in our favor.
Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today
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