Monday brings a short NBA week, with the fun beginning at 7:00 p.m. ET on FanDuel and DraftKings. Given the constant flux of the NBA season, we’re breaking down the top building blocks for NBA DFS picks today. These are the best options for Monday’s slate like the various Milwaukee Bucks who will be filling in for Giannis Antetokounmpo, plus Victor Wembanyama in a delightful DFS matchup against Washington.
NBA DFS Picks Today – Building Blocks: Monday, Feb. 10
NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks
Kyle Kuzma: Bucks vs. Warriors
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 32.45 | FanDuel: 31.09
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 60.4% | FanDuel: 24.7%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $5,300 | FanDuel: $6,200
It seems that the DraftKings salary algorithm did not get the news that Giannis Antetokounmpo is out for the next two weeks with a strained left calf. Perhaps all eyes were on the Super Bowl, even though the Bucks played on Sunday.
Kyle Kuzma played 36.5 minutes and recorded just over 33 fantasy points. That is not particularly eye-popping, but it is still a solid baseline level of production.
Golden State has slipped on defense, allowing 116.1 points per 100 possessions over the last 15 games. This is below average and about 5 points more than what the team was allowing through the first 10 weeks of the season. The Warriors now have Jimmy Butler, moving on from Andrew Wiggins, Dennis Schroder and Kyle Anderson. Do not expect a quick improvement in their defense as there will be more focus on acclimating Butler into the offense first.
Bobby Portis also has a favorable salary on DraftKings ($6,300, 56.1%) while being overpriced on FanDuel ($8,500, 1.4%). After missing six games for personal reasons, the 30-year-old started two of the last three games, averaging 33.3 minutes and 8.3 field goal attempts with a 49.1% success rate. This resulted in 22.3 points, 15.0 rebounds, 5.3 assists, and 2.0 combined blocks and steals for just over 53 fantasy points per game. Even if he comes off the bench again, he and Kuzma will both get heavy minutes as the team tries to fill the void Antetokounmpo leaves.
Damian Lillard played a whopping 43.8 minutes yesterday, so hopefully he is a full-go tonight. He averaged 55 fantasy points in the last three games and is worthy of tournament consideration.
Buddy Hield and Draymond Green are just outside the 10 most popular plays on the main DFS sites as they enter a fantasy-friendly matchup against a Milwaukee squad that allowed 119.1 points per 100 possessions over the last 10 games, and the Bucks are now missing their most menacing defender. For those worried about Lillard being tired, Stephen Curry is another good tournament option at the guard position.
FanDuel is including the final game of the night, with the Los Angeles Lakers hosting the Utah Jazz. LeBron James (ankle) is legitimately questionable with a left ankle injury that kept him out of Saturday’s game. Depending on his availability, he will either be hardly represented in tournaments, or if he is out, then Jaxon Hayes, Rui Hachimura and Jarred Vanderbilt will each get a boost in their fantasy projections.
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Victor Wembanyama: Spurs at Wizards
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 54.39 | FanDuel: 55.38
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 8.5% | FanDuel: 7.9%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $11,000 | FanDuel: $12,000
Victor Wembanyama is likely to see his popularity double with more injury news expected to mint additional value plays leading up to lock. Of course, that still will leave him underrepresented in tournaments, which makes him a priority play for savvy gamers.
The Washington frontcourt is simply not equipped to deal with the French phenom, and he should easily reach 50 fantasy points with another 10 to 15 in attainable upside.
Alexandre Sarr remains out, and, of course, Jonas Valanciunas is now with the Sacramento Kings. That means veteran Richaun Holmes and relative newcomer Tristan Vukcevic will be tasked with trying to protect the point. Holmes is a neutral play on DraftKings ($4,900, 14.3%), though he is a steal on the “secret site” if he starts.
Jordan Poole should continue to approach 20 field goal attempts per night, giving him 50-fantasy point upside. Of course, he also has seen foul trouble and nights where his shot is not falling, having him scramble to get to 30 fantasy points. De’Aaron Fox is a more expensive option, though he is a far safer DFS decision point than Poole.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Pick
The Portfolio EV alert feature is a terrific way to be notified when opportunities pop up throughout the day. Both Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown missed shootaround, leaving their availability for tonight in question.
As this information was being incorporated by the various sports wagering operators, Hard Rock was lagging, which has Derrick White’s 25.5 points + rebounds + assists (PRA) prop standing out from the rest of the market.
The screenshot of Portfolio EV shows that this wager projects to win 54% of the time. That combined with the -105 odds on Hard Rock leads to a spectacular 6.3% expected value when accounting for the -119 “True Odds.” We can also see that most other books have pushed this to a 26.5 or 27.5 PRA target with -120 odds.
Stokastic’s Advanced NBA Statistical Projections have White projected for 34.1 minutes, 16.45 points, 4.81 rebounds and 3.99 assists for 25.25 PRA. The projections still have both Tatum and Brown in them, so if one or both sit, White should project for closer to 28.5 PRA.
Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today
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