Friday wraps up the work week with an enticing eight-game featured slate, beginning at 7:00 p.m. ET on FanDuel and DraftKings. Let’s get into the top NBA DFS picks and building blocks, including Scottie Barnes, Immanuel Quickley, Aaron Wiggins and Anfernee Simons, with counterarguments for rolling out Chet Holmgren and Alex Caruso!
These picks are based on the latest information available. For the most up-to-date lineup updates, visit our NBA DFS Starting Lineups Page!
NBA DFS Picks Today – Building Blocks: Friday, March 7
Elevate your NBA DFS game with FREE DFS Sims! Sign up with one of our partners and enjoy a free month of Core DFS. Looking for more? Stack multiple partner signups to extend your access even further! Click here to get started.
NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks
Scottie Barnes: Raptors vs. Jazz
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 47.13 | FanDuel: 46.18
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 48.1% | FanDuel: 32.2%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $7,900 | FanDuel: $9,100
Toronto is resting Jakob Poeltl and RJ Barrett in advance of a Saturday matchup against the Washington Wizards. Poeltl missed eight games in February with a hip pointer, so giving the 29-year-old a rest day is not surprising. Barrett is a bit of a surprise, though he has never truly been the picture of robust health over his six seasons.
Gradey Dick, Ochai Agbaji and Jonathan Mogbo are also out with injuries, which really thins out the Toronto rotation.
Scottie Barnes played 29 and 29.9 minutes in the last two games, with the Raptors somehow stealing a pair of one-score games in Orlando against a Magic squad that is trying to make a postseason run. There is no need for Toronto to push Barnes more than 30 to 32 minutes since he is the prized asset of the franchise. However, he should see plenty of usage with two starters out, and he gets a dreamy matchup against Utah.
Looking at the Stokastic NBA Boom/Bust Tool, we can see that there is just over a 50% probability that Barnes will make a foray over the 50-fantasy point plateau on DraftKings, and he is in the optimal lineup nearly 64% of the time. Things are a little more tepid on FanDuel with the more appropriate salary, which has the do-everything wing reaching 50 fantasy points around 40% of the time while carrying a 34% likelihood of being in the optimal lineup on the blue site.
From a raw points perspective, Barnes has a median fantasy projection that ranks third on DraftKings and fourth on FanDuel, where turnovers are more punitive and there is no bonus for a double-double.
It is important to understand that while the Raptors are missing four core rotation members, there are still eight players who project for at least 23 minutes tonight, not counting Jamison Battle and Garrett Temple (yes, he is still in the Association).
Point guard Immanuel Quickley is a solid fantasy point-per-dollar play who also has access to 40-fantasy point upside. Chris Boucher is always hard to trust, but he did put up 23 points and 10 rebounds while handing out a pair of helpers in 20 minutes of run against Phoenix 10 days ago. Of course, he was 9 of 12 (75%) from the field, including a quartet of troikas. His last start, however, was back on March 6 in the 2021-22 season.
In that glorious outing, Boucher dropped 42 fantasy points, though including his two appearances on either side of that masterpiece, the 32-year-old totaled 44.8 fantasy points. UPDATE: Speaking of hard to trust, Boucher is now doubtful with a dental/tooth issue. This boosts the prospects of our next man up, Orlando Robinson as the likely starter. but with Mogbo out, he and Boucher will probably split the center minutes, with a baseline of around 20 to 22 for each and the other 4 to 8 up for grabs or covered by there is the possibility that Barnes could cover things as the “nominal center” when Walker Kessler is on the bench, or the Raptors could just go five-out.
Rookie Ja’Kobe Walter is likely to be with the first five, per the F-R-E-E Stokastic Starting Lineups page. In his three most recent spot starts, including Tuesday, the former Baylor Bear averaged 28.5 minutes and 9.3 field goal attempts with a 52.3% conversion rate. This culminated in 14.7 points, 2.3 rebounds, one assist and two “stocks” (combined blocks and steals), which is pretty solid for a 3-and-D rookie.
Utah has ruled out Lauri Markkanen, John Collins and Jordan Clarkson, and Keyonte George (illness) is questionable. If George is out, then rookie Isaiah Collier and veteran Collin Sexton are intriguing against the shorthanded Raptors. If George is in, the salaries have adjusted enough for everyone that nobody is particularly enticing, aside from Kessler as a differentiation play in tournaments. There are plenty of centers who have similar fantasy point-per-dollar ratios, so this is a salt-to-taste situation.
NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks
Chet Holmgren: Thunder vs. Trail Blazers
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 44.55 | FanDuel: 45.52
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 48.6% | FanDuel: 50.2%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $7,300 | FanDuel: $8,000
Oklahoma City has already ruled out Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, Isaiah Hartenstein, Luguentz Dort and Carson Wallace. Chet Holmgren is questionable, and there is a strong possibility he is not going to play either. Of course, until that is settled, he looks like one of the best DFS options in the player pool.
Currently, OKC has a 10.5-game lead on the Lakers in the Western Conference while trailing Cleveland by one game for the best record in the league.
UPDATE: No surprise, Chet Holmgren has now been ruled out. This should also reaffirm that Alex Caruso is a risky option. Fire up Wiggins and the two remaining Williams.
This is an interesting rest spot for the Thunder, with the team hosting Denver on Sunday afternoon and again on Monday night. Oklahoma City is still favored by a bucket, though expect things to slide back to a pick’em if Holmgren isn’t starting. The second overall selection in the 2022 NBA Draft did not play on Wednesday, so there is a chance that the team just wants him to get some action tonight with minutes in the mid- to upper-20s. This is the swirling uncertainty that may not be completely clarified prior to tipoff.
Alex Caruso is another player who comes with trepidation since the Thunder would prefer him to be healthy for the postseason as a key perimeter defender. It is really hard to see the team wanting to push him more than 20 or so minutes, which makes him a risk as well. Industry consensus has him in the 24- to 26-minute range, and that has him popping as one of the most desirable discount dandies. Keeping in mind the old adage Fortune favors the Bold, the savvy gamer should consider taking a stand with this duo, depending on how the news shakes out.
Now for the secure options: Aaron Wiggins should see 30 to 32 minutes, with Jaylin Williams and Kendrich Williams (no relation) lined up for 25 to 27 minutes of run. Isaiah Joe should have access to double-digit field goal attempts, which makes him a potential punt du jour. The Thunder really are not short on bodies with Branden Carlson, Adam Flagler, Ousmane Dieng and Dillon Jones all ready to step into larger workloads tonight.
The Portland side offers some fantasy potential, and Anfernee Simons leads the way. OKC will be without most of their best on-ball defenders, so he should be able to operate with impunity tonight. Deni Avdija (quad) is questionable, but if he is a go, then he is another secondary tournament target. If Jerami Grant misses a sixth consecutive game with knee tendonitis, Donovan Clingan, Toumani Camara and potentially Jabari Walker could see solid frontcourt minutes, with Deandre Ayton and Robert Williams III remaining on the sidelines. Dalano Banton (personal) is out as well, which means Shaedon Sharpe and Scoot Henderson do not have much competition from the rest of the reserves for their backcourt rotations.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Pick
Tonight we can look to the under for Alex Caruso’s 21.5 points + rebounds +assists (PRA) prop on BetRivers and SugarHouse, where this wager is available at -114, which is standing out from half of the operators who have lowered the threshold to under 20.5 PRA.
The screenshot of Portfolio EV shows that this wager has a historical 2.9% ROI. The combination of today’s matchup variables, along with the -114 odds, results in a steady 2.7% expected value when factoring in the -121 “True Odds.”
Wondering what is Portfolio EV? Well, it’s the best sports betting tool on the market! Check it out now and start building your bankroll.
Stokastic’s Advanced NBA Statistical Projections have Caruso projected for 26.9 minutes, 10.39 points, 3.64 rebounds and 4.73 assists for 18.76 PRA. That is still well below the 21.5 target, and as detailed in the DFS analysis above, this is a rich workload.
Since the holidays, Caruso has only appeared in 19 games, with three instances of more than 22 minutes. Yes, he did receive 27 minutes in his last spot start on Feb. 8, but that is the only time he logged more than 25 minutes in the last 27 tilts. Do not wait on this prop for long, as it is likely to slide back to 20.5 PRA with the rest of the industry.
Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today
Tune into the Stokastic NBA Live Before Lock Show at 5:00 p.m. ET on YouTube for expert analysis, key insights and winning strategies to dominate tonight’s NBA DFS slate!
