Saturday kicks off the weekend with a stellar 7:00 p.m. ET on FanDuel and DraftKings. Let’s get into the top NBA DFS picks and building blocks, including Russell Westbrook, Kelly Olynyk and Karlo Matkovic, who will allow gamers to spend up for the luxury options such as Giannis Antetokounmpo, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Cade Cunningham and Alperen Sengun.
These picks are based on the latest information available. For the most up-to-date lineup updates, visit our NBA DFS Starting Lineups Page!
NBA DFS Picks Today – Building Blocks: Saturday, March 15
NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks
Russell Westbrook: Nuggets vs. Wizards
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 36.47 | FanDuel: 35.59
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 51.1% | FanDuel: 24.4%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $6,000 | FanDuel: $6,300
Tonight is the second-leg of a back-to-back, the third game in four days and the fourth matchup in six days for Denver. Last night the shorthanded Lakers, without LeBron James and Luka Doncic, nearly upset the Nuggets in the Mile High City. It took a last minute score from Jamal Murray to clinch the victory, which saw him play 39 minutes, Nikola Jokic 38, Michael Porter Jr. 33 and Aaron Gordon 31. Considering Murray and Gordon are perpetually dinged up and even Christian Braun (35 minutes) is showing signs of wear, at least one or two of the starters are likely to sit out the game against Washington.
Best guess is that Gordon is out and there is a good chance Murray or Porter is as well. Even if that duo plays, it may be just enough to get the team a big cushion, before turning things over to the understudies. Jokic is a potential rest candidate as well, with his last missed game back in mid-January. Of course as he pushes for a third-consecutive MVP Award, he could very well play tonight, put up a quick triple-double and then watch the game from the bench during the second half.
All of these roads lead to Russell Westbrook seeing ample minutes, in what should be a free-wheeling matchup against one of his former teams. It is always fun to point out that in just 65 games for the Wizards, the former MVP holds the franchise record with a whopping 38 triple-doubles. That is one fewer than Darrell Walker (15), John Wall (7), Wes Unseld Sr. (7) and Jeff Ruland (5) combined.
Depending on the other available options, Denver should be putting forth some strong discount dandies. The only issue is that this is the final game of the night. Fortunately, five of the seven games will be getting underway within an hour of this matchup, so more information should be available in time for it to be actionable. In the meantime, backloading lineups with Westbrook looks like the savvy strategy for Saturday.
Washington has enough players to spread minutes around, which makes the Wizards unappealing for this slate.
NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks
Kelly Olynyk: Pelicans at Spurs
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 31.51 | FanDuel: 30.74
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 34.5% | FanDuel: 30.3%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $5,100 | FanDuel: $5,500
The Pelicans will be without rookie Yves Missi (ankle) for a second-consecutive games, with Zion Williamson (personal) also unavailable tonight. That means journeyman Kelly Olynyk and rookie Karlo Matkovic will be seeing ample minutes in the frontcourt, against a thinned out San Antonio squad, on a back-to-back.
Bismack Biyombo, Sandro Mamukelashvili and Jeremy Sochan are are manning the post, with Victor Wembanyama out and Charles Bassey doubtful. Olynyk has proven he can still put up fantasy points in a hurry and Matkovic has already endeared himself to DFS gamers, outperforming his salary on several similar occasions this season.
Veteran Mo Bamba is on a 10-day contract, playing 15 and 25.5 minutes in his two games for the Pelicans, which he is under consideration on DraftKings at the $3,000 minimum salary. Giving up the center position is a tough ask on FanDuel, even with Bamba carrying a rock bottom $3,800 cap hit.
Trey Murphy III is having a breakout season, putting up career-highs with 35.6 minutes, 21.6 points, 5.1 rebounds, 3.6 assists and 1.8 “stocks” (combined blocks and steals). These are borderline All-Star numbers, which could be in the cards at some point over the next couple of seasons for the 24-year-old. When Williamson, Brandon Ingram and Dejounte Murray are off the court, Murphy has proven that he can be a DFS slate-breaker.
Jose Alvarado and Jordan Hawkins are currently placeholder values, who at worst will be neutral options, even if other discount dandies are unveiled.
Per the Stokastic NBA Boom/Bust Tool, shows that Sochan has a positive 7% leverage score on DraftKings and a 4% advantage on FanDuel. However, with the back-to-back, it is hard to tell exactly who will be available for the Spurs. Tune into the Stokastic NBA Live Before Lock Show at 6:00 p.m. ET on YouTube to get the most up to date information.
Tonight there are several top-tier options, though Jokic has some questions about how much he may need to play, to ensure the Denver victory. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is going to be without running mates Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren, which should foist extra offensive responsibilities on the potential MVP. He already leads the league with 32.8 points per game, boasting a pair of 40 point game, along with a 51 point effort against Houston 12 days ago.
In turn, Cade Cunningham is a countermove against SGA, sliding in with a $1,200 savings on DraftKings and a $1,000 discount on FanDuel. This salary cap relief, along with the Thunder missing two starters, which will be somewhat detrimental for their lockdown team defense and the early start time, makes Cunningham an intriguing tournament target.
Giannis Antetokounmpo is second in the league with 30.5 points per game and he has a terrific matchup against the Indiana Pacers, who he just posted 19 points, 17 rebounds, seven assists and a block in 34 minutes of run. This was a one-point loss for Milwaukee, with the Bucks needing to reverse their three losses in four games skid. His median fantasy projection is within 3.5 points of Jokic on the main DFS sites.
Alperen Sengun should be able to have his way with the Chicago frontcourt, manned by Nikola Vucevic and Zach Collins. The do-everything center is a double-double threat every game and there is triple-double upside lurking in the shadows. Houston easily dispatched Dallas, 133-96 last night, with only Tari Eason and Jalen Green seeing heavy minutes for the starters. Sengun had 16 points, 15 rebounds, four assists and a steal in just 25 minutes, which is impressive.
Eason is likely to sit tonight, which could push Jabari Smith Jr. into the starting lineup. Keep in mind that Amen Thompson is out, so there are plenty of minutes available. There is also a chance that Fred VanVleet gets a break tonight, as he has been missed 16 games with ankle issues, since the beginning of February. The Rockets are 8-point home favorites and should handle Chicago with or without their lead guard.
Chicago brings interesting mid-tier plays in Tre Jones and Kevin Huerter, with Ayo Dosunmu and Lonzo Ball out, while Josh Giddey is doubtful. This isn’t an easy matchup, but minutes and opportunities should help this reserve duo “pay off” their salaries once again.
Finally, Memphis is on a back-to-back, currently favored at home by seven points against the Miami Heat. Santi Aldama is out, while Vince Williams Jr. is doubtful and Ja Morant questionable. It also remains to be seen what will happen with Jaren Jackson Jr. who was a surprise early return last night.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Pick
Karlo Matkovic is someone to consider targeting in the sports wagering world for the under on his 7.5 rebounds prop on Hard Rock at +105.
The screenshot of Portfolio EV shows that this wager has a historical 5.1% ROI. The combination of today’s matchup variables, along with the +105 odds, results in a stellar 6.7% expected value when factoring in the -109 “True Odds.”
We can see that most other books are in the -120 range, which is a tough toll to tackle.
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Stokastic’s Advanced NBA Statistical Projections have Matkovic projected for 28.7 minutes and 7.28 rebounds. That is a tick below the 7.5 target and of course under the eight boards needed for this under to lose.
In the DFS analysis above, there is plenty of reason to use the rookie as a core foundational play tonight, yet also consider the under on his rebounds. Even with Zion and Missi out, Olynyk and Bamba are going to be in line for their share of the frontcourt minutes. Plus with the math on our side, this can take some of the edge off of a poor DFS effort from Matkovic.
Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today
Tune into the Stokastic NBA Live Before Lock Show at 6:00 p.m. ET on YouTube for expert analysis, key insights and winning strategies to dominate tonight’s NBA DFS slate!
