Thursday brings a festive five-game featured-slate, tipping off at 7:00 p.m. ET on FanDuel and DraftKings. Let’s get into the top NBA DFS picks and building blocks, including Austin Reaves, Luka Doncic and Giannis Antetokounmpo, with the Chicago Bulls backcourt providing discount dandies such as Tre Jones and Kevin Huerter.
These picks are based on the latest information available. For the most up-to-date lineup updates, visit our NBA DFS Starting Lineups Page!
NBA DFS Picks Today – Building Blocks: Thursday, March 13
NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks
Luka Doncic:
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings:58.24 | FanDuel: 56.21
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 20.8% | FanDuel: 31.4%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $12,000 | FanDuel: $11,800
Luka Doncic is questionable with a sore right ankle. If he is starting, then he should vie for the top fantasy score of the night. If he is out, then pivoting to Giannis Antetokounmpo is relatively easy since this is just the second game on the docket.
Both of these players have made ample appearances in this article series throughout the season, so their bona fides are well known. There is not much to add other than to rank Doncic a tick above Antetokounmpo.
LeBron James, Jaxson Hayes and Rui Hachimura are all out, which does take away several of the capable offensive frontcourt options for Los Angeles. However, it is interesting to note that across the last 15 games, the Lakers had a 108.9 defensive efficiency rating, which was the second-best mark in the league in this timeframe. In an interesting twist, Anthony Davis was with Dallas during this stretch, while Hachimura was out for six games, with LeBron and Hayes missing two. It would seem that the availability of Jarred Vanderbilt and the addition of Dorian Finney-Smith have been helpful — just something to ponder.
Austin Reaves has averaged around 0.92 fantasy points per minute this season when playing alongside James, leaping to a 1.25-per-minute rate when the GOAT is off the court. In limited minutes (85) with Doncic and without James, Reaves is around 1.02 fantasy points per minute, so expecting something in the 1.15 to 1.20 range is reasonable.
Per the F-R-E-E Stokastic Starting Lineups page, it looks like Alex Len will be receiving a spot start, though he projects for around 14 to 15 minutes, which makes it hard to be excited for them, even with something approaching a fantasy point per minute. He has been with the Lakers for a dozen games now, seeing action in only three of the last nine. He played 13:19 in a spot start against Brooklyn on Monday, missing his lone field goal attempt while recording two boards, two dimes, one block and a turnover. His rotations consisted of 6:37 to start the game, 3:04 to begin the second quarter and 3:37 coming out of the halftime break. Tread lightly in the absence of assurances from coach JJ Reddick, even if the well-traveled postman is with the first five.
Vanderbilt is the better option despite it being likely he will come off the bench. Defense and rebounding are his calling cards, though he is projecting to get around a fantasy point per minute in 24 to 26 minutes of run, putting him in the mix for around one-in-five lineups on Thursday’s short slate.
Damian Lillard is the only other player from this matchup who is garnering more than a 20% projected probability share. He has been meandering through March with 34.4 minutes, 16.8 field goal attempts, 24.7 points, 4.8 rebounds, 5.8 assists and 1.5 steals in six outings. Any time could be Dame Time, though it should be noted that he had fewer than 40 fantasy points in six of his 10 games since the All-Star Break.
Jordan Goodwin has nominal appeal as a discount dandy on DraftKings ($3,600, 9.4%) and FanDuel ($4,100, 9.2%), with Kyle Kuzma providing tournament differentiation, though he cleared 30 fantasy points only once in the last five games, even with Bobby Portis serving his suspension.
NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks
Tre Jones: Bulls vs. Nets
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 30.01 | FanDuel: 29.84
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 52.1% | FanDuel: 66.8%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $5,000 | FanDuel: $5,300
Ayo Dosunmu (shoulder) is out for the rest of the season, Lonzo Ball (wrist) is trending towards missing a sixth consecutive game, plus Josh Giddey (ankle) is going to be on the shelf for the next week.
It should be no surprise to learn that Tre Jones is projecting to be one of the three most popular options across the DFS industry today, as it is hard to forecast any rain on his parade, short of not playing.
The former Duke Blue Devil has shown that he is a competent facilitator over his five seasons in the league. However, he is a minus on defense and pretty neutral on offense. Of course, that does not matter when the minutes are seemingly unlimited and the salary cap hit is nominal. Even though Jones is overleveraged, per the Stokastic NBA Boom/Bust Tool, the salary relief and solid fantasy projection make him a core building block with differentiation and upside to be found at other positions.
Kevin Huerter is likely to move into the starting lineup tonight, which is going to have him be nearly as popular as Jones on DraftKings, though employed half as frequently on FanDuel. The combo guard has shown he can meld his game to whatever his team needs, from directing the offense to long-range looks or even drive-and-dish efforts. Similar to Jones, he is a woeful defender, but that doesn’t matter at this point in the season with a bench bereft of other options.
Nikola Vucevic (calf) came off the bench for 23.6 minutes after missing six games, though there is no reason for the team to push him for more than 28 to 30 minutes tonight. Chicago has a 4.5-game edge on the final Play-In Tournament berth, with Brooklyn, Philadelphia and Toronto having no interest in closing the gap. This makes things tricky for Vucevic and Zach Collins, who will be sharing the center minutes.
Rookie Matas Buzelis can be sprinkled across tournament lineups, along with Coby White, who will be tonight’s primary scorer. It is hard to be overly excited for any Brooklyn pieces, particularly with the crowded rotation when key players are available. Cameron Johnson, Cam Thomas and D’Angelo Russell are the most interesting, but good luck pinpointing which of this trio is to be trusted.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Pick
Tonight the over for Gabe Vincent’s 2.5 points prop on BetMGM at +135 looks like a wager to target.
The screenshot of Portfolio EV shows that this wager has a historical 11.6% ROI. The combination of today’s matchup variables, along with the +135 odds, results in a favorable 5.1% expected value when factoring in the +124 “True Odds.”
We can see that the other books are mostly offering +110 to -105, which is why the BetMGM number is so favorable. This is where letting Portfolio EV do the heavy lifting is key, as is setting alerts since a wager like this is not going to be posted for long.
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Stokastic’s Advanced NBA Statistical Projections have Vincent projected for 29.3 minutes and 2.71 assists. That is right in line with the target, though still below the three needed for this wager to be a success. Plus money is key, but anything below +124 is worrisome.
Vincent had three assists in three of his last six games, during which he also had a trio of spot starts. If Doncic is out, then this is an easy smash; if Doncic plays, which is what this analysis is based on, it is a very strong wager.
Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today
Tune into the Stokastic NBA Live Before Lock Show at 5:00 p.m. ET on YouTube for expert analysis, key insights and winning strategies to dominate tonight’s NBA DFS slate!
