Wednesday marks the middle of the workweek with a six-game NBA featured slate, tipping off at 7:00 p.m. ET on FanDuel and DraftKings. Let’s get into the top NBA DFS picks and building blocks, including Michael Porter Jr., Jamal Murray and Giannis Antetokounmpo, if he plays. There are several burgeoning availability scenarios that could unleash even more options!
These picks are based on the latest available data. For real-time lineup updates, check out our NBA DFS Starting Lineups Page!
NBA DFS Picks Today – Building Blocks: Wednesday, March 26
NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks
Giannis Antetokounmpo: Bucks at Nuggets
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 60.59 | FanDuel: 59.12
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 66.8% | FanDuel: 55.1%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $11,500 | FanDuel: $12,000
In an unfortunate development, Damian Lillard has deep vein thrombosis in his right calf. This is essentially a blood clot issue, which, of course, has dramatic downside if not properly addressed. This is essentially ending the season for the 34-year-old, foisting even more responsibilities onto Giannis Antetokounmpo, who is dealing with foot and knee issues himself. This season, Antetokounmpo is averaging just shy of 1.7 fantasy points per minute with or without Lillard on the court.
UPDATE: Giannis is out, Jokic is now questionable in an upgrade, but Michael Porter Jr. is a downgrade to questionable. Welcome to March Madness! If Giannis is a go, then the two-time MVP is a core foundational play with the best median fantasy point projection on the day. There is a little trepidation at this time with his availability, considering the Live Odds courtesy of Portfolio EV have Denver favored by 5.5 points, even without Nikola Jokic. The expectation is that the Nuggets would be slight home favorites by about a bucket if Antetokounmpo were fully healthy. This DFS analysis is based on Antetokounmpo being in; if he is out, then Milwaukee will become a key source of value up and down the salary sheet.
Kyle Kuzma was brought over from the Washington Wizards at the trade deadline to provide a “jack of all trades” skillset, which was intended to help take the pressure off of Antetokounmpo and Lillard so they could focus on offense. Kuzma has been taking the toughest defensive assignments while also focusing on rebounding and doing the unassuming dirty work.
In his first 17 starts for the Bucks, Kuzma averaged 33.4 minutes and 11.6 field goal attempts with a subpar 43.1% conversion rate. This resulted in 13.4 points, 6.6 rebounds, 1.9 assists and 0.7 “stocks” (combined steals and blocks), though most importantly, an 11-6 record for Milwaukee.
Across the last four games, Kuzma took 16 shots three times while averaging 33.8 minutes, 5.8 rebounds, 3.3 assists and one-third of a steal. The headline is that he averaged nearly 18 points in these contests, recording two of his three 20-plus-point games with his new team during this stretch.
Per the F-R-E-E Stokastic Starting Lineups page, the expectation is that Ryan Rollins will continue to start for Lillard, though gamers have soured on his pedestrian production in this role. Even with his reasonable salaries on DraftKings ($4,500, <5.0%) and FanDuel ($4,300, <10.0%) he is unlikely to push into double-digit popularity.
Across his three starts, the third-year guard was anemic from the field (5-for-18, 28%), averaging 25.3 minutes, 6 points, 3.3 rebounds, 3.7 assists and 1.6 stocks. Somewhat surprisingly, he and Kevin Porter Jr. only shared the court for two minutes during this trio of tilts, and that did not occur in the two most recent games. This has Porter looking like the better DFS option on both DraftKings ($4,600, 22.6%) and FanDuel ($4,700, 32.6%) since his offense tends to make him the preferred option for coach Glenn Rivers in the crucial parts of the game.
Gary Trent Jr. is a wild card with his fantasy production entirely dependent on his scoring from the backcourt. Fortunately, that is something that the Bucks are desperate for without Lillard. Brook Lopez and Taurean Prince move into consideration if Antetokounmpo is out.
Aaron Gordon missed the last game while dealing with a calf issue. Currently, he is listed as questionable, though if he plays, he is a core fantasy option. In his last four games, he averaged 34 minutes, 25 points, six rebounds, 3.8 assists and half a steal. His mid-$6,000 salary is appropriate on the big two DFS sites. Michael Porter Jr. and Jamal Murray each project well against the Bucks with Gordon. If they are carrying the load without him, then this duo becomes proverbial “windmill slam dunks” in all DFS formats.
Deandre Jordan saw a dramatic increase in his DFS salary over the last two games, with the blue site putting him into unplayable territory at $5,800, while the venerable veteran is still a minor consideration on DraftKings ($5,000, 15.2%) who will likely fall out of favor as more value options are confirmed. The well-traveled big man who has been in the league for 17 seasons had a stretch of 10 games where he did not leave the bench. This included the first three matchups of Jokic’s most recent injury stretch. Jordan was dusted off on Sunday and again on Monday, averaging 34.5 minutes, 10.5 points, 16 rebounds, 5.5 assists and a steal in games at Houston and against Chicago. It is hard to envision this relevance continuing, though springtime NBA is a fickle environment to survey.
Russell Westbrook and Christian Braun are marginal options who would move into relevance if Gordon were out tonight.
Stokastic’s NBA DFS Single Lineup Simulator is a groundbreaking tool that revolutionizes lineup building by providing data-driven simulations, making it a must-have for serious players. Check out how the Simulator evaluates this single lineup for today’s slate:
NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks
Jared Butler: 76ers vs. Wizards
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 33.91 | FanDuel: 32.88
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 31.9% | FanDuel: 61.2%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $6,200 | FanDuel: $5,600
This matchup is dreadful, with Philadelphia looking to finish in the bottom 6 to preserve its “protected” lottery pick, and, of course, Washington is bottoming out in the hopes of landing Cooper Flagg.
Who knows what will transpire in this game, though the 76ers are favored by a bucket at home. Quentin Grimes is listed as available for Philly, though Lonnie Walker IV is out. The Wizards are giving veterans Khris Middleton and Marcus Smart maintenance days, but Jordan Poole is apparently ready to go.
Jared Butler landed with Washington last year, making the Wizards his third franchise in three seasons. He was packaged with four second-round picks at the trade deadline, bringing back a late-first-rounder from the Sixers in an asset consolidation move. Due to all of the backcourt injuries (Tyrese Maxey, Jared McCain, Kyle Lowry, Eric Gordon, etc.), Butler has been playing a prominent role, starting six of the last seven games while averaging 30 minutes per appearance. The fantasy production has been sporadic, though with the matchup against Washington, Butler is looking like a potential DFS darling, particularly on FanDuel.
Quentin Grimes has eight straight games with at least 40 fantasy points, and even with his lofty salary, he is worthy of our consideration tonight. Justin Edwards looks terrific on both DraftKings and FanDuel, with Jeff Dowtin joining him on the latter site. Ricky Council IV is a deeper cut, as is Guerschon Yabusele since it is hard to know just how egregious the 76ers will be when it comes to “winning” this game.
Alexandre Sarr should tear up the depleted Philly frontcourt, though his minutes have been mercurial down the stretch. Tristan Vukcevic has received a salary increase, but it has coincided with a dramatic dip in his efficiency. Rookie Carlton Carrington III failed to top 25 fantasy points for nine consecutive games, then he served up a 40-burger against Toronto on Monday.
Tread lightly with Poole since he has been allowed to play only 23.4 minutes per game over his last nine, with just 12.3 field goal attempts. AJ Johnson is the inferior player, which during this form of March madness makes him the better DFS option, as the Wizards are trying to lose and will happily play him over Poole tonight.
For those looking for safer plays, then the Brooklyn Nets are an option, with Trendon Watford, D’Angelo Russell, Tyrese Martin, Keon Johnson and Nic Claxton. Tonight Cameron Johnson and Day’Ron Sharpe are “out,” which keeps the rotation a little shorter, though again there is no certainty other than uncertainty with the cellar-dwellers at this point of the season.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
There is a rare over that is popping in the models, with O.G. Anunoby looking intriguing for his 2.5 made 3-pointers prop at BetRivers.
With the combination of today’s matchup variables and the +140 odds, there is a solid 3.6%% expected value when factoring in the +132 “True Odds,” and we can gain further comfort in seeing that sharp book Pinnacle has posted its odds at +105, which is nearly a coinflip.
Portfolio EV does all the heavy lifting when sorting through the endless opportunities across the various sports wagering operators, highlighting the best spots quickly and effortlessly. We can see that BetRivers has actually dropped its odds and the expectation is that it will fall further, ending up with the rest of the pack in relatively short order, so do not delay in making your mark.
Stokastic’s Advanced NBA Statistical Projections have Anunoby projected for 36.6 minutes and 2.37 made 3-pointers. Jalen Brunson remains out, and Miles McBride (groin) is expected to miss another game or two after sitting on Tuesday. Though he is not well known for his 3-point proclivity, over the last 13 games, Anunoby attempted 100 troikas and sank 39. That worked out to 7.7 attempts per outing in this timeframe, with three conversions per matchup.
Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today
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