NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Paolo Banchero (January 12)

NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Sunday, Jan. 12

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NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks

Since the start of last season, Banchero averages 1.25 fantasy points per minute when Franz Wagner is off the court, which will be the case tonight. That is a minimum baseline as it looks like the budding superstar is ready to level up, averaging 29.8 points, 8.5 rebounds, 5.2 assists, and 1.6 combined blocks and steals in his six games this season. The early popularity projections are likely to change, so expect to see Banchero end up on around one-third of all DFS lineups tonight.

Philadelphia has an average defense, even with Joel Embiid on the court. Jalen Suggs and Gary Harris are sidelined, so that means more minutes for Cole Anthony, Tristan da Silva and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. Anthony is intriguing despite his increasing salary cap hit since he is the main offensive facilitator for the Magic. The rest of the lineup is neutral, with Goga Bitadze actually losing ground now that he has to compete with Banchero for rebounds and points in the paint.

Embiid is expected to play tonight after missing the last three games, but he is a tournament option at best in this matchup. He could go off for 50 fantasy points or he could dud, which is a problem at his salary.

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It remains to be seen if the 10th overall selection in the 2023 NBA Draft has much of a fantasy ceiling, though he certainly will benefit from getting late-game minutes, with SGA watching from the bench. Aaron Wiggins also is a viable discount dandy who has the same path to additional minutes as Wallace.

The Washington frontcourt is simply not equipped to deal with Isaiah Hartenstein and Jalen Williams, so the duo has safe fantasy floors. Like Gilgeous-Alexander, their services may not be needed in the final frame, though both still hold tournament appeal.

Unless someone is out for the Wizards, none of the players are particularly appealing now that Kyle Kuzma and Jordan Poole are healthy.

Utah almost accidentally had a three-game winning streak, with a successful Florida road trip giving them a 36-point victory over Miami and a 13-point win against Orlando. If not for an amazing halfcourt buzzer beater by Trae Young, the Jazz likely would have topped Atlanta in Salt Lake City on Tuesday. Clearly, that cannot be allowed for the tanking team, so expect John Collins to miss another game and franchise cornerstone Lauri Markkanen to potentially rest tonight on the back-to-back.

Keyonte George is doubtful with a sore heel, and Jordan Clarkson (plantar fasciitis) is on the shelf until trading season. Brice Sensabaugh has missed the last three games due to illness, though some would believe it was a result of his sick two-game tear in Florida that saw him lead the team with 61 combined points in those victories.

Collin Sexton and Walker Kessler are strong plays since they should be the primary offensive options, with rookies Kyle Filipowski and Isaiah Collier looking good from a fantasy point-per-dollar perspective. It is hard to know what upside exists with Filipowski, and we know there is not much for Collier, other than he will run the offense when Sexton is on the bench.

Tyrese Martin, Noah Clowney, Ziaire Williams and Day’Ron Sharpe are the appealing options from Brooklyn. The offense is missing so many players it would likely fall apart against a competent team, but the Utah (lack of) defense should help prop the Nets up for fantasy purposes.

Today’s Top Sports Betting Pick

Corey Kispert is worth looking at in the sports wagering market for the under on his 10.5 points prop.

The screenshot of Portfolio EV shows that this wager projects to win 56% of the time. With the -110 odds, that leads to solid 6.1% expected value when accounting for the -125 “True Odds.”

Hard Rock is currently offering -110, better than the True Odds of -125 and the -125 (or worse) that most other books are offering. FanDuel and DraftKings have even dropped the threshold down to 9.5 points, which further indicates that this is a good wager on Hard Rock.

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Stokastic’s Advanced NBA Statistical Projections have Kispert projected for 25.5 minutes and 10.37 points. That median projection is right in line with the target but still lower than the 11 points necessary for this wager to fail. Kuzma and Poole are back, which means fewer opportunities for Kispert. The fourth-year marksman could still splash a couple of 3’s, but he rarely gets double-digit field goal attempts when the regulars are healthy, and this is a tough matchup against the Oklahoma City defense.