NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: No Lyin’, Play Zion! (Jan. 25)

NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Saturday, Jan. 25

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NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks

This is yet another injury marred season for the former top selection of the 2019 NBA Draft. Despite getting in excellent shape (no really, it is true) the 24-year-old has been dealing with calf and hamstring issues. If he takes the court, this will be only his 11th appearance of the year. His most recent outing was last Friday, so he should be ready to go. In his four games this month, he is averaging 25.6 minutes, 20.8 points, 8.5 rebounds, 5.5 assists and 3.3 combined blocks and steals for nearly 46 fantasy points. That is a hefty per minute ratio (cwidt) and highlighted by a magnificent 57 fantasy points in 22.6 minutes in his last appearance.

Williamson is certainly not a foundational building block, but he is likely to be overlooked in tournaments as gamers craft their coveted stars and scrubs lineups. There is a decent chance that Mark Williams gets the night off for Charlotte, which means Moussa Diabate, DaQuan Jefferies and the ancient Taj Gibson will be the center options.

LaMelo Ball (wrist) and Miles Bridges (back) were out last night, but both are in play if available tonight. Cody Martin (groin) is doubtful after leaving the game in the first quarter on Friday, so depending on Ball and Bridges, there could be other value options unveiled from the Hornets. The Pelicans gave up 139 points in Memphis, so there should be ample fantasy goodness for the taking tonight by Charlotte.

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Tyrese Maxey has been outstanding, while producing a stat line very similar to last year when he won the Most Improved Player award, while also earning his first All-Star Game appearance. He has 50-plus fantasy points in five of his last eight games, including three of the last four. The 24-year-old is third in the league with 20.7 field goal attempts per game, sixth with 9.6 3-point attempts and third with 2.0 steals. He is also averaging 26.5 points, which is the seventh-most in the league, 3.4 rebounds, 5.9 assists and 0.4 blocks. Chicago has a bottom-10 defense, while playing at a top-five pace, making this a fantasy friendly environment. Maxey could be a little lead-legged after logging 40 minutes in Friday’s 132-129 upset of Cleveland. Of course it is not like he will be expending much energy on defense, so this is not too much of a concern for the budding superstar.

Turning out attention to the Bulls, it is key to note that over the last 10 games, Philadelphia has the worst defensive efficiency rating in the league, allowing 123.6 points per 100 possessions. Coby White (ankle) is out for the next two weeks and Ayo Dosunmu is dealing with a sore calf. That means more offensive opportunities for Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic, with potential trade rumors surrounding both players.

LaVine is posting numbers a tick shy of what he produced in his two All-Star seasons, with 24.0 points, 4.8 rebounds, 4.5 assists and 1.2 combined blocks and steals. He also has a career-high 51.3% conversion rate from the field, with a personal-best 60.8% effective field goal rate. When White is off the court, LaVine sees nearly a 10% increase in his per minute fantasy production, which is a nice boost heading into this cherry matchup.

Vucevic gets a 5% increase without White, mostly as a result of additional offensive opportunities. The 34-year-old is back to averaging a 20-10 this season, aided by not having to compete with DeMar DeRozan for mid-range shots. He also is enjoying a career-season with a 55.3% field goal success rate and a 61.6% effective field goal rate, which is in the top-10.

Today’s Top Sports Betting Pick

James Harden is someone to consider targeting for the under on his 9.5 assists prop in the final game of the night.

The screenshot of Portfolio EV shows that this wager projects to win 59% of the time. That combined with the -125 odds on DraftKings, leads to fantastic 5.4% expected value when accounting for the -141 “True Odds.”

Stokastic’s Advanced NBA Statistical Projections have Harden projected for 33.1 minutes and 9.39 assists. That is in line with the 9.5 threshold, though still shy of the 10 needed for this under to fail.

Harden has dished out 10-plus dimes in six of his last nine games, but only seven of his last 20. While this wager is likely to go down to the wire, the math is on our side. You will want to move on this number quickly as it is unlikely to last long, with so many other books all the way down at -160, it is only a matter of time before DraftKings slides back to the pack.

Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today

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