Saturday has some weekend NBA action with a seven-game featured slate, locking at 7 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. This slate is loaded with decision points, making it the perfect opportunity to highlight the top NBA DFS building blocks and best picks of the day. Let’s break down Friday’s core plays, featuring Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray for the short-handed Nuggets and several fantasy point per dollar options in the Phoenix at Golden State matchup, depending on how player availability shakes out.
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NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Saturday, Dec. 28
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NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks
Nikola Jokic: Nuggets vs. Pistons
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 67.69 | FanDuel: 64.94
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 32.6% | FanDuel: 16.1%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $11,900 | FanDuel: $12,300
Last night the Nuggets put up 135 points against the Cavs, though they fell short at home 149-135. Aaron Gordon is out, which means even more of the offensive responsibilities are foisted on Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray.
Coach Mike Malone went with a short-rotation, not pulling the starters until the final two minutes of the game. That saw Jokic (36) and Murray (40) with heavy minutes, though with Denver only three games above .500, tonight is a must-win against Detroit.
Looking at the median fantasy point projection for Jokic is all we really need to know about the three-time NBA MVP for tonight. The Pistons are not equipped to deal with him and this is a bankable win for the Nuggets. Murray has logged 39.1 and 40.3 minutes in his last two games, but he was off on Dec. 23. While this marks his third game in four days, it’s also his third in six days, and he’s averaged an absurd 37.2 minutes per game over his last 17 appearances.
Over the last 10 games, the Nuggets are fourth in pace, with 103.8 possessions per 48 minutes. Detroit is eighth (101.7), with the sixth-worst defensive efficiency rating (117.4) in the same timeframe. Cade Cunningham is posting career-highs across the board, with 36.3 minutes, 20.1 field goal attempts, 24.2 points, 6.9 rebounds, 9.7 assists and 1.8 combined blocks and steals. He is second on the assist leaderboard, while also logging 16 double-doubles and six triple-doubles in 27 games.
Jaden Ivey is the only other above-average Piston option in the DFS world tonight and he is projecting to be on nearly one-third of all FanDuel rosters and on 20% of the tournament teams on DraftKings. Russell Westbrook got a spot start last night against Cleveland as the replacement for Gordon, so it make sense that he’s in contention for that honor this evening. Payton Watson would be the other candidate to join the first five, which would elevate him in the projections. Westbrook is in play either way, and given the tight rotation, he’s guaranteed plenty of minutes with the starters, regardless of how things unfold.
Christian Braun and Tobias Harris are differentiation plays in tournaments, with both elevating to secondary targets on the evening sub-slate.
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Kevin Durant: Suns at Warriors
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 46.97 | FanDuel: 45.71
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 18.9% | FanDuel: 11.7%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $9,100 | FanDuel: $9,700
Injuries on both sides have created new opportunities for both the Suns and Warriors. Plus, there is a chance that Jusuf Nurkic is suspended after getting in a kerfuffle with Naji Marshall and PJ Washington last night.
Focusing on what we do know – Kevin Durant logged 38 minutes last night in a 98-89 loss to the visiting Dallas Mavericks, who were without Luka Doncic. Durant had 35 points and we know he averages around 1.4 fantasy points per minute when Devin Booker (groin) is off the court.
While it may not be fun to “trust” a 36-year-old playing a third game in four nights, Durant is not exactly expending a lot of energy on defense. If Durant isn’t your jam, then check out one of the “questionable” options from the Sacramento Kings at the Los Angeles Lakers. Domantas Sabonis and LeBron James are dealing with respective illnesses, with Anthony Davis (foot) leaving the Christmas game early. One or more of these players should be in, and if any are out, then that opens up opportunities for teammates like De’Aaron Fox, DeMar DeRozan, Austin Reaves and Rui Hachimura (illness).
If Nurkic is out, then Mason Plumlee and Oso Ighodaro become solid discount dandies, though also crowding out the likes of Jokic, Davis, Sabonis and Joel Embiid. Bradley Beal remains in play if Grayson Allen is unable to clear the concussion protocol, though his upside has not been particularly enthralling this season. Royce O’Neal and Ryan Dunn are decent discount dandies, too.
Stephen Curry was out last night, however this was a planned event after he aggravated knee soreness on Christmas. His return puts the kibosh on Brandin Podsiemski and Dennis Schroder, both of whom were ineffective last night in his absence. Trayce Jackson-Davis looked good and in his four games since returning to the starting unit, he has scored 30 fantasy points in each spot.
Andrew Wiggins and Jonathan Kuminga are wild cards, with the former being the safer option and the latter flashing upside last night, but not the consistency that coach Steve Kerr desires.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Pick
Jalen Duren’s under 10.5 rebounds prop just ticked down (see the red arrow), but it is still a favorable wager, worthy of our attention tonight.
Looking at the screenshot of Portfolio EV, we can see this wager is likely to come to fruition 56% of the time. With the -125 odds, this results in an impressive 6.4% expected ROI when accounting for the -139 “True Odds.”
BetRivers, Unibet and SugarHouse are offering -125, which exceeds the True Odds of -139 and the -140 odds posted at most other books.
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Stokastic’s Advanced NBA Statistical Projections have Duren projected for 26.8 minutes and 9.72 rebounds. That is below the 11 needed for this under to fail, and the Detroit dynamo has 11-plus rebounds in just four of his last 14 (28%) games. For the season, he has corralled 11 or more caroms 10 times in 28 (36%) games, with two more at 10. He does have the talent to get there, but playing against Jokic and having inconsistent minutes are not in his favor tonight.
Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today
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