Thursday brings a festive five-game featured slate with a 7:00 p.m. ET tip-off on FanDuel and DraftKings. With so many variables at play as the NBA season progresses, today’s focus is identifying the best NBA DFS building blocks and top picks. Let’s break down Thursday’s options like Austin Reaves and LeBron James against the weak defense of the Washington Wizards, while Ty Jerome stands out as a strong fantasy point-per-dollar building block.
NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Thursday, Jan. 30
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NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks
Austin Reaves: Lakers at Wizards
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 43.78 | FanDuel: 41.54
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 25.4% | FanDuel: 61.8%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $8,500 | FanDuel: $7,800
“Anthony Davis is headed to the locker room” is not going to be a phrase to worry about for the next week or so, as the future Hall of Famer is out with an abdominal strain.
Tonight we will be looking to several Lakers for this delightful matchup against the Wizards in our nation’s capital.
The Wizards have played at a top-4 pace all season, with 104.3 possessions per 48 minutes (Side note: How about cutting out a couple timeouts from each team instead of shortening games to 40 minutes, Commissioner Silver; it isn’t that hard). The team is dead last with 117.0 points allowed per 100 possessions, making opposing offenses look like they are filled with All-Stars for a night.
Austin Reaves should see a nice increase in his own field goal attempts and should also take more of the facilitation duties away from LeBron James, who needs to help fill the scoring and rebounding void as well. The 40-year-old continues chugging along, and while he is always a risk for late-game rest, we didn’t see it occur in Philadelphia on Tuesday. And now Los Angeles really needs to secure a victory tonight with a tough matchup in New York on Saturday and then again on Tuesday in L.A.’s other NBA arena, facing the Clippers.
Jaxson Hayes has been tabbed as the starter, though with Jarred Vanderbilt working his way back to increased minutes, Rui Hachimura in the mix and Washington putting forth a pitiful collection of post players, Hayes may still only see 22 to 26 minutes. In his three spot starts scattered throughout the season, he played 33.1, 17.9 and 34.7 minutes when Vanderbilt was still injured.
Max Christie is a neutral discount dandy on DraftKings ($4,600, 12.7%) but a key salary saver on FanDuel ($4,200, 42.1%). Dorian Finney-Smith is the preferred option on the blue site over Hayes since it is tough to forgo the other center-only options such as Onyeka Okongwu, Jaren Jackson Jr. and Rudy Gobert.
Washington offers up a few different tertiary targets, varying by your favorite DFS site of choice. On DraftKings Carlton Carrington III (30.2%), Jordan Poole (27.6%) and Bilal Coulibaly (20.2%) are the most popular plays. FanDuel counters with Jonas Valanciunas (14.0%), Kyshawn George (12.9%) and Kyle Kuzma (11.1%).
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Ty Jerome: Cavaliers vs. Hawks
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 24.86 | FanDuel: 24.72
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 52.5% | FanDuel: 35.6%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $4,400 | FanDuel: $5,100
Ty Jerome is not a flashy DFS option, but he is going to be well represented tonight in all game formats. Dean Wade, Isaac Okoro and Caris LeVert are out, while Sam Merrill is dealing with an illness. These players do not all play the same position as Jerome, but it represents how many key contributors are out, so Jerome is projecting for safe minutes, even with both Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell healthy.
Atlanta suffered a major blow, losing Jalen Johnson (shoulder) for the rest of the season. Not only does that take away a burgeoning offensive star, but it also removes a strong rebounder and defensive presence. Bogdan “Available to Play!” Bogdanovic and Clint Capela are out, which has Cleveland as double-digit home favorites. Jerome is likely in the mix for mop-up duty as well, with the veteran guards heading to the bench to cheer him on if the game gets out of hand early. All of the available Cleveland regulars are acceptable tournament targets.
The Cavaliers defense has also slipped from elite to very good. That doesn’t help as much as the vacated minutes, but looking to the Hawks in a less daunting matchup than it would have been in the first two months is not a bad strategy since only Okongwu projects to be on more than 15% of all tournament lineups across the main DFS sites.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Pick
Deandre Ayton is once again in this section as a target for the under on his 10.5 rebounds prop in a matchup against Orlando.
The screenshot of Portfolio EV shows that this wager projects to win 54% of the time. That combined with the -105 odds on BetMGM leads to favorable 4.9% expected value when accounting for the -116 “True Odds.”
Stokastic’s Advanced NBA Statistical Projections have Ayton projected for 29.3 minutes and 9.32 rebounds. That is below the 11 needed for this wager to fail, though far from safe.
If we get an engaged and motivated Ayton, then we could see him push for double-digit rebounds, even in a tougher matchup against a fully available Magic frontcourt loaded with rebounders. If Ayton is distracted, bored or annoyed about having to play basketball tonight, then this is a favorable play.
Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today
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