Friday wraps up the work week with the NBA fun tipping off at 7:00 p.m. ET on FanDuel and DraftKings. Let’s get into the top NBA DFS picks and building blocks, including Nikola Jokic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Cade Cunningham and Josh Giddey!
NBA DFS Picks Today – Building Blocks: Friday, Feb. 28
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NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks
Nikola Jokic: Nuggets at Detroit
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 61.52 | FanDuel: 59.19
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 6.1% | FanDuel: <5.0%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $12,200 | FanDuel: $12,800
There are two extra games on the FanDuel docket, with Minnesota at Utah and the Battle for Los Angeles, being eschewed by DraftKings.
That leaves two apex predators for gamers to consider on both sites, in Nikola Jokic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The latter gets consideration not only for his top-three median fantasy point projection, but also a preponderance of value at the center position.
SGA currently leads the league with 32.4 points per game, ahead of Giannis Antetokounmpo (30.9) and Jokic (29.2). Of course he has other capable teammates, plus with the OKC defense allowing only 105.3 points per 100 possessions this season, the team is on a ridiculous pace for an all-time great net rating of 12.6 points. In his last 15 games, Gilgeous-Alexander has a 57-fantasy point outing, two in the mid-60s and a pair of 70 burgers. In the other 10 games, he is averaging in the mid-40s.
Since the beginning of December, Jokic has played in 38 games, with an average of 63.8 DraftKings points and 67.2 FanDuel points. The upper-echelon games have been ridiculous with three in the 90s, five in the 80s and nine in the 70s. Putting this another way, he has scored at least 70 fantasy points in nearly 45% of his games over the last three months.
The three-time and reigning NBA MVP is averaging career-highs with 36.0 minutes, 19.5 field goal attempts, 10.4 assists, 1.8 steals and 29.2 points. His 12.6 rebounds are the second most of his career and he could become the third player to average a triple-double, with an outside chance of leading the league in scoring and assists. Truly spectacular.
Last night the Nuggets lost 121-112 in Milwaukee, with the starters getting heavy minutes, led by Jamal Murray (40), followed by Jokic (38), Michael Porter Jr. (35), Aaron Gordon (33) and Christian Braun (31), with Russell Westbrook leading the bench unit with 25 minutes. Murray, MPJ, Gordon and Westbrook have all been dealing with various injuries over the last few months and considering that the Pistons are 2.0-point home favorites tonight, it is likely that someone could get rest. This would boost Jokic and whomever else is ambulatory, so keep tabs on this evolving situation.
Cade Cunningham is another luxury option, likely to be represented on around 20% of the tournament rosters on both DraftKings and FanDuel. For the DraftKings featured slate, he trails only Jokic and Gilgeous-Alexander, with Luka Doncic knocking him down to fourth on FanDuel with the expanded player pool. Denver has been a middle of the pack defense over the last fortnight, gaining an edge from their home games in the thin air of the Mile High City.
NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks
Josh Giddey: Bulls vs. Raptors
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 41.55 | FanDuel: 39.84
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 15.4% | FanDuel: 11.9%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $8,100 | FanDuel: $8,600
Josh Giddey is someone likely to be overlooked as gamers craft the coveted “stars and scrubs” roster style. He has seen a steady salary increase, so he is no longer a bargain, though he is not a top-tier option either.
In his last 10 games, all without Zach LaVine, Giddey is averaging 31.9 minutes, 19.9 points, 8.1 rebounds, 5.8 assists and 2.5 “stocks” (combined blocks and steals). It looks like Nikola Vucevic (calf) is trending towards another missed game, which puts more of the offensive burden on Giddey and Coby White.
In three of his last four games, Giddey has 50-plus DraftKings fantasy points, with one game of 46.6. On the blue site, he has topped the 50-fatasy point milestone in each affair. The Toronto defensive efficiency rating (116.1) has been in the bottom-third of the league over the last 10 games, mostly without Jakob Poeltl. He did return from his eight-game absence, but played only 24.4 minutes as the team plans on easing him back into things. Scottie Barnes (hip) missed the last game, though he is questionable for tonight and there were no words on his semi-late scratch being a multi-game issue. Of course, NBA injury reporting is dodgy at best these days.
Chicago has been even worse than the Raptors over the last 10 games, allowing 119.9 points per 100 possessions. While we should avoid Poeltl, if Barnes starts, he is a tournament target. If he is out, then Immanuel Quickley and RJ Barrett would benefit from additional touches.
Wrapping up with the Bulls, it sounds like Nikola Vucevic could be out through the weekend with his calf strain, that he had been dealing with for the last few weeks. That means more Zach Collins, with Jalen Smith likely to clear the concussion protocol and serve as the backup center. Collins has seen a big salary increase after his strong performance, though if Vucevic is out, this duo is cheap enough that the available DFS production can support both. The duo is center-only on DraftKings, though Collins does have power forward eligibility on FanDuel.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Pick
Deni Avdija looks like a player to target for the under on his 6.5 rebounds prop on BetRivers, SugarHouse and Unibet, where this wager is available at +105.
The screenshot of Portfolio EV shows that this wager has a historical 3.8% ROI. The combination of today’s variables, along with the +105 odds, results in an stellar 6.9% expected value when factoring in the -109″True Odds.”
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Stokastic’s Advanced NBA Statistical Projections have Avdija projected for 29.9 minutes and 6.57 rebounds. This is right in line with the target, so getting this wager at “plus money” is critical.
Avdija left the last game against his former team, logging only six minutes after suffering a quad injury. In his last 15 games, Avdija is averaging 5.9 rebounds, though only four (26%) times was he able to corral at least seven errant caroms.
DeAndre Ayton and Robert Williams III are out, which takes away some rebounding competition, but Brooklyn is a good rebounding team as well.
Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today
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