Wednesday marks the return for the final NBA stretch run, with the fun locking at 10:00 p.m. ET for the single-game slate on FanDuel and DraftKings. Given the one matchup tonight, deciphering the best NBA DFS picks and building blocks becomes that much more important. With that in mind, let’s get into the top options like Miles Bridges and Luka Doncic.
NBA DFS Picks Today – Building Blocks: Wednesday, Feb. 19
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NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks
Miles Bridges: Hornets at Lakers
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 36.70 | FanDuel: 35.11
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 48.4% | FanDuel: 39.7%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $8,800 | FanDuel: $13,000
Tonight is a make-up game of the Jan. 9 matchup that was postponed as a result of the Southern California wildfires.
LaMelo Ball missed seven of the last nine games with an ankle issue. He played 36.2 minutes on Feb. 7, skipped the game on Feb. 9 and then played just 10.3 minutes on Feb. 10. This reaggravation resulted in him sitting out on Feb. 12 so he could have extra rest through the All-Star Break.
If Ball does suit up tonight as expected, perhaps the team will use prudence and keep him around 30 minutes, rather than his standard 35 to 39 he plays when “feeling good.” After all, he is the crown jewel of the Queen City franchise, who has not been able to stay on the court.
Keep in mind that Vasilije Micic was traded to Phoenix as part of the Jusuf Nurkic deal, and Tre Mann is out for the season with a disc injury. That leaves KJ Simpson and Isaiah Wong as potential point guards if Ball is out, with each player still having games left on their two-way contracts. The Hornets signed veteran Elfrid Payton to a second 10-day contract, so Charlotte has options to continue to cover for Ball.
Miles Bridges has value regardless of the availability of Ball. Over the last 10 games, mostly without Ball, the soon-to-be 27-year-old averaged 34 minutes and 20.4 field goal attempts at a 41.7% conversion rate. The volume turned into 22.0 points, 8.9 rebounds, 4.1 assists, and 1.3 combined blocks and steals, with eight efforts ending in 40-plus fantasy points. Even if Ball is playing, the offensive efficiency should improve for Bridges, even at the expense of a few field goal attempts. Keep in mind that Brandon Miller and Grant Williams are out for the season.
Mark Williams is expected to take the court for the first time since the Hornets and Lakers had to unwind their deal after Williams failed his physical with Los Angeles. If he is back, expect him to play 26 to 28 minutes, which is down from the low-30s he was seeing prior to the trade. He could get there, but he hasn’t seen action in two weeks, so conditioning could be an issue. Charlotte plays in Denver tomorrow night, so that could also impact the workload for Williams.
On a fun note, this is the rare double “Remember Me?!” game. Plus it is important to understand this was not a current ailment but future concerns for the oft-injured big man who has appeared in a grand total of 85 games over his three-year career for the team that just tried to trade him to tonight’s opponents.
Moussa Diabate missed the final game before the All-Star Break with an eye abrasion, though he is likely to be fine for tonight. Unless there is word about a significant minutes cap on Williams in the 24 to 26 range, expect to see Diabate over Nurkic when Williams is off the court. There is a chance that Nurkic will see 8 to 10 minutes against Alex Len, though in games where Williams is playing, Nurkic’s best path to playing time is probably in mop-up duty. When Charlotte decides to manage Williams’ workload, those will be the games where Nurkic has a chance at DFS relevance.
Nick Smith Jr. and Josh Green should have secure minutes in the upper-20s, though they see significant decreases in their fantasy efficiency when Ball, Bridges and Williams are all on the court. DaQuan Jeffries and Tidjane Salaun are tournament differentiators who only warrant consideration for those crafting more than two dozen lineups in tonight’s mega-field single-game contests.
Luka Doncic: Lakers vs. Hornets
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 52.36 | FanDuel: 51.01
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 76.3% | FanDuel: 69.7%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $10,600 | FanDuel: $15,500
The main question tonight will be how much court action will go to Luka Doncic.
After a 22-game layoff with a calf injury, the 25-year-old played 23.5 and 23.1 minutes in his first two games wearing purple and gold. Both games were against Utah, with a 19-point victory coming in Los Angeles and 48 hours later a 12-point loss in Salt Lake City.
Currently, the Stokastic NBA Projections have Doncic slated for 32.9 minutes. That is a reasonable representation, considering the word is that the Lakers will be letting Doncic play more going forward. Conservative expectations are better calibrated for something around 30 minutes, with the Lakers also playing Thursday night in Portland and then again on Saturday in Denver before hosting Dallas next Tuesday. Los Angeles needs wins, so expect it to do what it takes to secure the victory tonight, though keep in mind the Hornets are 11.5-point road dogs. That could lead to in-game rest for Doncic and LeBron James if things are secure heading into the final frame.
James did not play in the All-Star Game, opting to rest his ailing ankle. He is questionable tonight, though it would be a little surprising if he were out. If he is, then that would mean more offensive opportunities for Doncic, with Austin Reaves being the key facilitator. There would also be more frontcourt minutes for Rui Hachimura, Dorian Finney-Smith and Jarred Vanderbilt. If James is starting, then Hachimura becomes a neutral option, with Finney-Smith and Vanderbilt tertiary targets.
Len is a wild card off the bench, likely to see somewhere between 10 and 14 minutes, though it is not out of the realm of possibilities that he will see another 20 to 22 minutes or even supplant Hayes with the first five. Dalton Knecht is in a similar range, but his path to relevance is via mop-up duty or knocking down a flurry of field goals off the bench.
The dust should settle on the information cloud closer to tip off, so be sure to tune into a special episode of the Stokastic NBA Live Before Lock Show at 9:30 p.m. ET on YouTube.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Pick
Jaxson Hayes stands out in the sports wagering world with the under on his 9.5 points prop on BetMGM, which currently has this wager listed at -130, which is well above the -162 posted by SugarHouse, BetRivers and Unibet.
The screenshot of Portfolio EV shows that this wager projects to win 59% of the time. That combined with the -130 odds on BetMGM leads to a fantastic 4.0% expected value when accounting for the -142 “True Odds.” It is also important to note that most of the other major operators have the threshold set at 8.5 points while giving a range of -113 to -134, which means that the BetMGM mark is likely to adjust quickly. Do not wait to place this wager!
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Stokastic’s Advanced NBA Statistical Projections have Hayes projected for a 21.8 minutes and 7.02 points. This is the sixth NBA campaign for Hayes, who has proven that he is best suited as a reserve, starting in just 62 of his 342 games played between New Orleans and Los Angeles.
The Charlotte frontcourt is mobile and good at drawing fouls, which is a risk for Hayes, who has 4.4 fouls per 36 minutes for his career. Keep in mind that Len was also brought in as an alternative post option, plus Vanderbilt is seeing an uptick in minutes as he regains his conditioning.
This all puts a lot of pressure on Hayes, who has reached double-digit points in just three of his seven starts since Anthony Davis was traded. In these games, he averaged 22.2 minutes and 4.3 field goal attempts with an 83.3% success rate. In the last game, Hayes played only 7.5 minutes, while Len logged a tick shy of 22 off the bench in the loss to Utah.
Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today
Again, don’t forget to watch the Stokastic NBA Live Before Lock Show at 9:30 p.m. ET on YouTube for expert analysis, key insights and winning strategies to dominate tonight’s NBA DFS slate!
