Friday wraps up the work week with the NBA action tipping off at 7:00 p.m. ET on FanDuel and DraftKings. Let’s get into the top NBA DFS picks and building blocks, including Evan Mobley, Darius Garland, Jarrett Allen, Stephon Castle and MORE!
These picks are based on the latest information available. For the most up-to-date lineup updates, visit our NBA DFS Starting Lineups Page!
NBA DFS Picks Today – Building Blocks: Friday, March 14
NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks
Evan Mobley: Cavaliers at Grizzlies
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 44.09 | FanDuel: 44.88
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 38.5% | FanDuel: 43.1%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $8,600 | FanDuel: $8,500
Donovan Mitchell is out for a second consecutive game with a sore groin. This matchup leads the slate with an eye-popping 244.5-point total, and Cleveland is currently a 2.0-point road favorite.
Over the last 15 games, Memphis had the seventh-worst defensive efficiency rating, ceding 116.9 points per 100 possessions while pushing the action with the fourth-highest pace in this timeframe. So much for the Grit and Grind ethos of yore.
Over the last 10 games, the Cavaliers were tied with Oklahoma City, producing 122.9 points per 100 possessions, while the Grizzlies ranked eighth with a 118.7 offensive efficiency rating in this stretch. This additional context does provide the data to support the surprising total, which was not particularly in doubt, considering that the oddsmakers employ countless quants to prepare the lines.
Evan Mobley has averaged 1.28 fantasy points per minute this season in 1,442 alongside Mitchell. When his fellow All-Star is off the court, Mobley surges to 1.38 fantasy points per minute. This is a result from increased usage and a jump in his assist rate from 13.2% to 21.7%. Since the beginning of February, Mobley has played three games without Mitchell, averaging 33.8 minutes, 23.7 points, 8.7 rebounds, 5.3 assists and a pair of blocks. That fantasy production is pretty much in line with tonight’s median projection, which has the former USC Trojan shaping up as one of the five most popular options on the main DFS sites.
Darius Garland also sees a massive change in his fantasy efficiency with (1.07 FPM) and without (1.32 FPM) Mitchell. Similar to Mobley, Garland sees increases in his assist and usage rates, becoming the main backcourt scoring threat. Per the F-R-E-E Stokastic Starting Lineups page, combo guard Ty Jerome is still going to be coming off the bench, with Max Strus, De’Andre Hunter and Jarrett Allen rounding out the first five.
That jives with the former Virginia Cavalier only seeing two spot starts in his 60 outings this season. Jerome gets almost a 30% increase in his fantasy point-per-minute production when he is on the court without Mitchell, though that 1.29 rate needs to be taken with a grain of salt since a lot of those 614 minutes are in mop-up duty against fellow reserves and even opposing understudies.
The late-blooming 27-year-old should still be on the court whenever Garland gets a break, but with everyone else healthy for Cleveland, he will be hard-pressed to clear 24 minutes in a close contest.
Jarrett Allen rounds out the top options from the Cavs, looking particularly appealing on FanDuel ($7,200, 25.1%), where he also has power forward eligibility. He will also be well represented in the featured tournaments on DraftKings ($7,700, 40.8%), with that site leaving off the final three games of the docket.
Jaren Jackson Jr. is trending towards a return after missing five games with an ankle issue. That leaves Santi Aldama as the only regular who is likely to be out tonight, making for a very crowded Memphis rotation. It should help keep this game close, but it makes the Grizzlies nearly unplayable in all formats.
NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks
Miles Bridges: Hornets at Spurs
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 43.69 | FanDuel: 41.79
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 13.3% | FanDuel: 5.9%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $9,100 | FanDuel: $9,100
Miles Bridges topped 50 fantasy points in five of the last six games, which has elevated his salary to $9,100 on the two big DFS sites. LaMelo Ball missed one of these games, while center Mark Williams was out for two of the tilts.
In this stretch, Bridges averaged 36.1 minutes and 21.7 field goal attempts, with a 51.5% conversion rate. He also has a lofty 40.4% success rate on 8.7 troikas per game in this stretch, which is likely to slide back to reality. Still, the 32.7 points, 9.0 rebounds, 4.2 assists and 2.3 “stocks” (combined blocks and steals) have been impressive.
Per the Stokastic NBA Boom/Bust Tool, the elevated salary is taking Bridges out of play for the main contests, but he does return to prominence for the mid-evening sub-slate. Williams should be able to find success against the depleted San Antonio frontcourt, which is, of course, without Victor Wembanyama and Charles Bassey, with Zach Collins being traded away to Chicago at the deadline. The oft-injured center gets solid run when he is available, with the team looking to continue his development.
DaQuan Jefferies is a potential discount dandy on both DraftKings ($3,400, 21.3%) and FanDuel ($4,000, 13.5%) if he remains in the starting lineup. It is a bit of a surprise that Charlotte is going with the 27-year-old who has played in just 94 games across five seasons in the league instead of second-year guard Nick Smith Jr. This appears to be a bit of a wakeup call for the one-and-done Arkansas Razorback who was the 27th overall selection in the 2023 NBA Draft. Smith’s long-range efficacy has regressed, and the Charlotte coaching staff has not been impressed with his defensive effort.
Things are a little less certain with Ball, particularly with the Hornets in tank mode and this being a road game. The dynamic guard always has a chance to order a 50-burger from the menu, though he will have to get there on efficiency over volume, having fallen shy of 29 minutes in three of his last nine games.
Speaking of tank mode, San Antonio is in that category now that De’Aaron Fox has elected to have surgery to repair the torn ligaments in his left little finger. We should not push too many minutes towards Chris Paul, with the soon-to-be 40-year-old topping 29 minutes twice in the last 13 games. The Stokastic NBA projections have Paul slated for 28.4 minutes. He is still in play on DraftKings ($4,900, 36.1%) with the shallower player pool, but it is hard to see much upside beyond 30 fantasy points.
Stephon Castle is going to be one of the more popular players on DraftKings ($6,300, 36.1%) and FanDuel ($6,500, 43.4%). In his last eight games, all off the bench, the rookie averaged 29.0 minutes and 15.6 field goal attempts, draining them at a 48.8% clip. This culminated in 20.3 points, 4.8 rebounds, 4.4 assists and 1.3 steals. If he returns to the starting lineup, as expected, his baseline will see around a 10% increase.
Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell, Jeremy Sochan and veteran Harrison Barnes should also help fill the void left by Fox, though it will be tricky to pinpoint which is the “best” option. This is the preferred order of preference, accounting for salary, positional eligibility and fantasy projection.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Pick
Miles Bridges is someone to consider targeting in the sports wagering world for the under on his 38.5 points + rebound + assists (PRA) prop on Hard Rock at -110.
The screenshot of Portfolio EV shows that this wager has a historical 6.3% ROI. The combination of today’s matchup variables, along with the -110 odds, results in a favorable 4.4% expected value when factoring in the -121 “True Odds.”
We can see that the other books that have posted under 38.5 PRA are mostly offering -125 to -130, with sharp book Pinnacle down to -143. The other operators have lowered the target to 37.5 PRA, offering a similar -110 line as Hard Rock. This is where letting Portfolio EV do the heavy lifting is key, as is setting alerts since a wager like this is not going to be posted for long.
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Stokastic’s Advanced NBA Statistical Projections have Bridges projected for 34.7 minutes, 22.67 points, 8.28 rebounds and 4.76 assists for 35.71 PRA. That is comfortably below the 39 PRA needed for this wager to fail, which is represented by the strong OS Rating of 7 and the $22 bet size on a $1,000 bankroll.
In the DFS analysis above, there is a detailed breakdown on how Bridges has been getting by with increased efficiency. The key thing to remember about DFS is that it is an enclosed ecosystem, with everyone having the same options. That is what makes Bridges a below average selection for the featured slate yet a strong play for the evening sub-slate. In turn, regardless of his DFS outcome, we can assess his sports wagering situation with the available parameters from the various books.
Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today
Tune into the Stokastic NBA Live Before Lock Show at 5:00 p.m. ET on YouTube for expert analysis, key insights and winning strategies to dominate tonight’s NBA DFS slate!
