Wednesday has some wild NBA action with lengthy injury reports for several teams. The fun is underway at 7:30 p.m. ET lock time on FanDuel and DraftKings. Let’s get into the top NBA DFS picks and building blocks, including Ja Morant, Desmond Bane and Vince Williams Jr., with thoughts on the tanking teams such as Utah, Toronto and Philadelphia.
These picks are based on the latest information available. For the most up-to-date lineup updates, visit our NBA DFS Starting Lineups Page!
NBA DFS Picks Today – Building Blocks: Wednesday, March 12
NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks
Ja Morant: Grizzlies vs. Jazz
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings:44.61 | FanDuel: 42.81
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 9.3% | FanDuel: 19.8%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $9,300 | FanDuel: $8,700
Ja Morant missed the first two games in March with a shoulder issue, though he has been dialed in across the four subsequent games. In this stretch, the high-flying 25-year-old averaged 34.4 minutes and 21.8 field goal attempts with a healthy 47.1% success rate. He was shaky from beyond the arc, converting on just a quarter of his 28 shots in this timeframe, but still averaged 29.0 points, 3.8 rebounds, 8.0 assists and 1.5 steals.
Memphis is in a scrum with Denver, Houston and the Los Angeles Lakers all within two games of one another. Oklahoma City has a double-digit lead in the standings, so this is the peloton chase group fighting for homecourt advantage in the first round. Golden State, Minnesota and the Los Angeles Clippers are a few games back, having a similar battle to determine which team will avoid the Play-In Tournament. The Grizzlies are on a three-game winning streak, though they lost seven of their last twelve tilts.
Jaren Jackson Jr. missed the last four games, and he is expected to be out for at least the next 10 days, dealing with a sprained left ankle. Santi Aldama (calf) is also out, while Brandon Clarke (knee) and Zach Edey (ankle) are questionable.
Per the F-R-E-E Stokastic Starting Lineups page, it looks like Vince Williams Jr. will be receiving a spot start, which has him standing out as a decent discount dandy on DraftKings ($3,800, 33.5%), though he can be eschewed on FanDuel ($4,500, 13.5%) with his higher salary and the blue site also including the two late games in the featured tournaments.
Williams has missed a significant amount of time in his short career as a result of injuries. Memphis has elected to take it easy with him, keeping him right around 24 minutes. The former VCU Ram will slide down the rotation in the playoffs, but it is still more advantageous for the team to have him healthy than to see him injured yet again. He should be able to produce something close to a fantasy point per minute against Utah, which keeps him in the conversation on DraftKings.
Desmond Bane is a better point-per-dollar option than Morant with similar upside. This has him looking nearly three times as popular on DraftKings, though the duo is projecting to have even representation in tournaments on the blue site. The 26-year-old is a jack of all trades when healthy. In his last five games, he averaged 35.7 minutes, 23.4 points, 9.6 rebounds, 5.6 assists and 2.0 “stocks” (combined blocks and steals). He had a triple-double and a game with 16 rebounds in this stretch. Bane is likely to continue to help out on the glass with Jackson and Aldama out, which gives him a strong fantasy floor.
Utah is likely to rest at least three regulars tonight, with Keyonte George (foot) also doubtful due to an injury. Best guess is that at least two of Jordan Clarkson, Lauri Markkanen, Collin Sexton, John Collins and Walker Kessler will join him. This is an island game for the Jazz, who will be back in Salt Lake City hosting the depleted Toronto Raptors on Friday, which would be a great time for them to end this current losing streak. On a not so fun note for the Jazz (cwidt), they are the first team to officially be eliminated from the postseason.
It is key to note that over the last 10 games, Memphis allowed 117.1 points per 100 possessions, which was the 10th worst defensive efficiency in the league during this stretch. Depending on which players are available, there could be solid fantasy point-per-dollar options at a variety of salary tiers for Utah. Tune into the Stokastic NBA Live Before Lock Show at 5:30 p.m. ET on YouTube for all of the up-to-date information on this evolving situation.
NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks
Jamal Shead: Raptors vs. 76ers
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 30.42 | FanDuel: 28.37
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 53.4% | FanDuel: 58.2%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $4,400 | FanDuel: $4,500
Toronto has gone into asset management mode, with the Raptors looking to limit the minutes of their key players. This is being done through giving players games off but also curbing the minutes of the active players.
Despite owning its own first-round selection in the upcoming NBA Draft, Toronto won four of the last five games. The two in Orlando were a surprise, though splitting a pair of games with Washington and besting Utah was not.
Philadelphia also holds the rights to its own pick but only if it is in the top 6; otherwise it conveys to Oklahoma City.
The 76ers (22-42), Raptors (22-43) and Brooklyn Nets (22-43) are essentially tied for the fifth-worst record in the league. It will be interesting to see which team tanks the worst tonight between Philadelphia and Toronto.
Currently, the Raptors will be without RJ Barrett (personal), Immanuel Quickley (rest), Gradey Dick (knee), rookie Ja’Kobe Walter (quad) and Jonathan Mogbo (nasal fracture), with Ochai Agbaji (ankle) trending towards missing a sixth consecutive game. The Sixers, of course, are without Joel Embiid, Paul George, Tyrese Maxey, Kyle Lowry, Eric Gordon and Jared McCain, with Andre Drummond (non-avocado related illness) and Kelly Oubre Jr. (ankle) questionable.
AJ Lawson is the only player to exceed 30 minutes in each of the last two games, so it is hard to be excited for Scottie Barnes (27.2 and 25.5 minutes) or Jakob Poeltl (24.1 minutes over last five games). Barnes is still live for 40 fantasy points, and Poeltl could double-double against the depleted Philly frontcourt, but why take the risk?
Looking at the Stokastic NBA Boom/Bust Tool, we can see that Jamal Shead and Lawson have a 50% and 40% likelihood of reaching their Boom scores (5x salary + 10 fantasy points) on DraftKings, with a 42% and 28% probability on FanDuel. They are two of the three most popular plays on the main DFS sites, even considering “reasonable” minutes of 28 to 32 tonight.
Philadelphia is countering with Lonnie Walker IV, though his salary is inching up with his increased responsibilities. Walker was in camp with Boston this fall, ultimately missing the final cuts. He was playing in the Lithuanian (LKL) League and saw additional action in the EuroLeague. Once the season was winding down, he jumped at the chance to play for his hometown team when the 76ers came calling in mid-February.
In his last three games, Walker averaged 30 minutes and 15 field goal attempts, which resulted in 17.7 points, 5.7 rebounds, 4.3 assists and one-third of a steal. While he didn’t stick in the Association this season, Walker did spend the last six years playing at the highest level in the world. He should not have any issues finding room to operate against his far more inexperienced counterparts tonight.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Pick
Tonight the under for Chet Holmgren’s 16.5 points prop on DraftKings at -120 looks like a wager to target.
The screenshot of Portfolio EV shows that this wager has a historical 5.9% ROI. The combination of today’s matchup variables, along with the -120 odds, results in a stellar 7.5% expected value when factoring in the -142 “True Odds.”
Most of the other books have lowered the threshold to under 15.5 points while offering similar or worse lines which is just insulting. Be a savvy shopper!
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Stokastic’s Advanced NBA Statistical Projections have Holmgren projected for 28.8 minutes and 16.61 points. That is right in line with what DraftKings offers, though it is likely to be nip and tuck down to the wire of this game. It will be interesting to see how these two elite teams treat this matchup, which could be a preview of the NBA Finals. Boston is favored by a bucket at home, with Jayson Tatum (knee) trending towards playing. Kristaps Porzingis (illness) missed the last six games and seven of the last eight, with the team trying to keep him ambulatory for the postseason title defense.
Oklahoma City will be without Jalen Williams (hip) through the weekend, while Alex Caruso is dealing with an illness. The absence of Williams will open up additional offensive opportunities for Holmgren, though it is important to note that he scored 17 or more points in three of his last eight games (38%) where he logged 24-plus minutes.
Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today
Tune into the Stokastic NBA Live Before Lock Show at 5:30 p.m. ET on YouTube for expert analysis, key insights and winning strategies to dominate tonight’s NBA DFS slate!
