Friday wraps up the work week with the NBA action tipping off at 7:00 p.m. ET on FanDuel and DraftKings. Let’s get into the top NBA DFS picks and building blocks like PJ Washington, Kyrie Irving, Jose Alvarado, Trey Murphy III, and several representatives from the Wizards and Bucks.
NBA DFS Picks Today – Building Blocks: Friday, Feb. 21
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NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks
PJ Washington: Mavericks vs. Pelicans
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 33.57 | FanDuel: 32.89
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 13.7% | FanDuel: 20.5%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $7,200 | FanDuel: $7,200
PJ Washington (ankle) missed six of the last seven games. The first three were due to knee soreness and then paternity leave. Upon his Feb. 8 return to action, he injured his ankle in the second quarter of the game against Houston. He has been upgraded to questionable for tonight and is one of many options to consider from this matchup, which boasts a 235.5 game total.
The Stokastic NBA Projections are taking a conservative approach to his minutes, with a median expectation of 33.2 for tonight. In his nine most recent healthy outings, the fifth-year forward averaged 35.5 minutes and 15.1 field goal attempts with a 47.1% conversion rate, including a 39.5% success rate on 4.8 3-point attempts. This culminated in 19.8 points, 11.1 rebounds, 3.1 assists, and 1.9 combined blocks and steals. That works out to just over 40 fantasy points per game, which represents the attainable upside for Washington.
Even with FanDuel including the final three games of the night for its featured tournaments, Kyrie Irving ($9,200, 23.9%) rates as one of the three most popular players. DraftKings ($9,300, 13.8%) is going with the first six games, though Irving barely cracks the top 25. This year when Luka Doncic was on the court, Irving averaged 1.1 fantasy points per minute; without Doncic, this pushed towards 1.2 fantasy points per minute, with an increase in assist and usage rates.
In his last five games, the soon-to-be 33-year-old averaged 41.4 minutes and 20.6 field goal attempts, resulting in 27.6 points, 6.0 rebounds, 4.2 assists and 2.6 “stocks,” with three games ending in 50-plus fantasy points. This is a winnable game for the Mavericks, who currently are favored by 5.5 points on their home floor. In his last 17 games without Doncic, Irving averaged 38.6 minutes of run, getting three games off for strategic rest.
Pop Quiz: When was Dante Exum drafted? This is going to surprise some readers, but it was back in 2014, when the Jazz chose him with the fifth overall selection. He had flashes but never really broke through with any consistency, spending 2021 through 2023 in Europe before getting a call from Dallas. Exum needed surgery on his right wrist after suffering an injury during training camp. He has played in seven games, including five as a starter. Do not expect him to continue his torrid shooting of 56.4% from the field and 47.1% from beyond the arc, but on the flipside, that is not too far off of last year’s 53.3%/49.1% either. He is a desirable discount dandy, particularly on FanDuel.
Klay Thompson is a neutral option on the main DFS sites, with Max Christie getting the edge on DraftKings, while Naji Marshall holds serve on FanDuel.
Zion Williamson has a chance to play in his 19th game of the season, assuming he has not lost his conditioning over the last week and a half. In his last dozen games, he averaged 26.7 minutes and a ridiculous 59.6% conversion rate on his 16.9 field goal attempts. This worked out to 25.3 points, 7.1 rebounds, 4.8 assists, and 2.4 combined blocks and steals. Ten times he cleared 40 fantasy points, with four games of 50-plus. He should be able to operate with impunity in the paint as Dallas has officially run out of healthy pivot men.
Jose Alvarado is coming off a pair of astounding performances, averaging 18.0 points, 4.0 rebounds, 8.5 assists and 3.0 stocks. He should continue to start with Dejounte Murray out for the season and Brandon Ingram now in Toronto. Trey Murphy III has leveled up this season, and in his last 21 games, he averaged 37.4 minutes, 25.0 points. 5.7 rebounds, 4.8 assists and 2.0 stocks. His salary now reflects this new baseline production, but there is still attainable upside for tournaments.
Yves Missi and CJ McCollum are tournament differentiators, with Missi getting a boost if Williamson doesn’t play.
Alexandre Sarr: Wizards vs. Bucks
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 33.91 | FanDuel: 33.69
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 36.5% | FanDuel: 34.2%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $5,600 | FanDuel: $6,000
Rookie Alexandre Sarr missed eight games with an ankle injury, though he played 31.7 minutes in the final game prior to the All-Star Break. Now he is the main frontcourt option for the Wizards with Kyle Kuzma in Milwaukee and Jonas Valanciunas on Sacramento.
Do not expect Washington to overwork the second overall selection of the most recent NBA Draft, but he should push 30 minutes in most games that he plays and stays out of foul trouble.
Jordan Poole may have some company tonight with Khris Middleton expected to make his debut, facing the team that shipped him to the proverbial gulag. The Wizards have indicated the plan is to not push Middleton or Marcus Smart but rather have them play around three times a week, ideally maintaining future trade value while also allowing the tankathon to continue. This duo will only help to keep some of the attention off of Poole, though it would be a surprise for either to play more than 24 to 28 minutes down the stretch.
Kyshawn George and Carlton Carrington III are two more rookies, who should continue to get run as they develop into future starters if Washington is ever more than a doormat. Consider them as potential game-stack options, when looking for added in-game synergy.
UPDATE: Lillard and Prince are out, Antetokounmpo is in because of course. This is actually a better DFS scenario since it makes Ryan Rollins and in-season acquisition Kevin Porter Jr. viable discount dandies.
Giannis Antetokounmpo could get a maintenance day, even though he played just shy of 24 minutes on Thursday. Damian Lillard is also questionable, though he tallied only 32.5 minutes last night. Milwaukee ended up with a 116-110 victory as the Clippers frittered away a double-digit lead in the fourth quarter, getting outscored 36-21 with the Bucks coming on strong at the end of the game. It would be a surprise for both to sit, as the Wizards can be pesky at home, and just three weeks ago, they knocked off the Timberwolves in Minnesota when the home team did not take things seriously. Milwaukee does not have that luxury if it wants to stay out of the Play-In Tournament. If one of this duo sits, the other will be a strong play.
Kuzma has not done anything in his five games with his new team, failing to reach 30 fantasy points in three times, including last night’s debacle where he barely averaged a fantasy point every other minute. Bobby Portis is serving his suspension, and with Antetokounmpo likely out, perhaps Kuzma will produce in his old stomping grounds.
Wrapping up this game, Taurean Prince is in the mix on the blue site, while Kevin Porter Jr. is yet another discount dandy on DraftKings who will become a secondary target if Lillard rests.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Pick
Naz Reid is popping up in the model for the under on his 7.5 rebounds prop at Caesars Sportsbook, which currently lists this wager at -103 — well above the -134 posted by sharp book Pinnacle.
The screenshot of Portfolio EV shows that this wager projects to win 53% of the time. That combined with the -103 odds on Caesars leads to a festive 5.1% expected value when accounting for the -114 “True Odds.”
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Stokastic’s Advanced NBA Statistical Projections have Reid projected for a 33.7 minutes and 7.43 rebounds. This is assuming that Rudy Gobert (back spasms) is good to go tonight after missing the final game heading into the All-Star Break. Gobert has missed only one game this season, though Julius Randle remains out.
Over the last 15 games, Houston was the second-best rebounding team in the league, and Jabari Smith (hand) is expected to return to action tonight. Minnesota ranked fourth in this timeframe, which is a nod to Reid and Gobert but also indicates that there will be a lot of competition for errant caroms tonight.
Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today
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