Thursday has a split-slate action, with the fun tipping off at 7:00 p.m. ET on FanDuel and DraftKings. Let’s get into the top NBA DFS picks and building blocks, including Luka Doncic, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Austin Reaves and Jonathan Kuminga as intriguing tournament targets.
These picks are based on the latest available data. For real-time lineup updates, check out our NBA DFS Starting Lineups Page!
NBA DFS Picks Today – Building Blocks: Thursday, March 20
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NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks
Austin Reaves: Lakers vs. Bucks
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 42.74 | FanDuel: 40.88
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 10.1% | FanDuel: 20.5%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $9,100 | FanDuel: $8,700
Yesterday it was Luka Doncic who drew the featured position in this article and while he may not have thrilled his DFS backers, it is hard to complain too vociferously about a mid-50s fantasy point performance that was among the top 5 of a 22-team player pool.
He received the entire fourth quarter off with Austin Reaves and journeyman Jordan Goodwin steering the ship into port for a convincing victory against Denver, albeit without Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray.
Update: Doncic has now been ruled out, which has pushed the Bucks to 6.5-point favorites. Rui Hachimura is doubtful after missing significant time with a left patellar issue and Trey Jemison III is questionable having missed the last five games with some sort of illness. Between the loss of Doncic and the thinned out frontcourt, Jaxson Hayes is begrudgingly in the mix, due to the shallow player pool. Reaves is borderline “must play” even with excess popularity and Gabe Vincent or Dalton Knecht is likely to join the starting lineup, with both in play.
Update 2: Now Reaves is out, with Dorian Finney-Smith and Jarred Vanderbilt potentially joining them. Milwaukee’s update has Lillard as questionable. On a fun note, only 24 more days left of the NBA regular season
Tonight the Lakers are 3.5-point underdogs in Los Angeles, which indicates that the matchup against Milwaukee should be competitive to the end. L.A. is one game behind Houston for the second-best record in the Western Conference, though the Lakers are only leading fifth-place Memphis by a game, which, of course, is the cutoff for getting homecourt advantage in the opening round of the playoffs. Saturday the Lakers will be hosting Chicago before heading on a four-game eastern swing, including games against a trio of playoff-bound teams. This is a winnable game, so while there may be risk of in-game rest if the Bucks hold sway, we should expect a full complement of minutes for the key contributors wearing purple and gold.
Reaves has seen his salary increase in the absence of LeBron James, though this makes sense with his added scoring and facilitation responsibilities. In just over 1,300 minutes with James on the court this season, Reaves is averaging 0.92 fantasy points per minute. When LeBron is on the sidelines, that rate leaps to nearly 1.3 fantasy points per minute, which is absolutely spectacular. Do not be shy about being over the field with Reaves tonight.
Goodwin stands out on FanDuel ($4,700, 34.9%) while also being serviceable on DraftKings ($4,600, 19.6%). Los Angeles is the fourth franchise that Goodwin has served in his four seasons, and he has proven to be around replacement level when in the right circumstances. Typically, he can produce in the 0.8- to 0.9-fantasy point-per-minute range, which has not yet been baked into his salary, considering he has averaged 30.3 minutes per game since moving into the first five in the four games without James.
There are not many superlatives left that have not already been bestowed upon Giannis Antetokounmpo. He trails only Doncic with his median fantasy point projection, which is nearly 10 points higher than Karl-Anthony Towns, who ranks third. The two-time NBA MVP will be well represented in tournaments on FanDuel ($11,700, 28.4%) and DraftKings ($11,700, 29.9%).
The Bucks quickly thin out with only Taurean Prince and Damian Lillard in the 10% to 20% popularity range on FanDuel. DraftKings is a different story, as reserves Kevin Porter Jr. and Gary Trent Jr. also project to be in that range. Lillard was been particularly consistent over his last dozen games; the diminutive guard had four with 49-plus fantasy points but seven appearances where he failed to reach the 40-fantasy point plateau. Anytime could be Dame Time given he had two 50-point outings in his last four games, though he was below 30-fantasy points in this last two, in Golden State and against Oklahoma City.
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NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks
Jonathan Kuminga: Warriors vs. Raptors
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 29.19 | FanDuel: 29.01
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 26.1% | FanDuel: 45.6%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $5,500 | FanDuel: $5,300
After missing over two months with a sprained ankle, Jonathan Kuminga is working back into the Golden State rotation. He played 20, 20.4, 27.6 and 23.8 minutes in his four games since returning to action, and even with a conservative 25.2 projection tonight, he still looks like a strong play, particularly on the three-game late-slate.
Toronto is tanking in an egregious manner, which has the Raptors as 13.5-point road dogs. The Warriors begin a six-game road trip in Atlanta on Saturday, so it would not be a surprise to see one or more of the regulars get a night off tonight.
Stephen Curry received a mental day on Tuesday, missing his first game in 23 opportunities. Jimmy Butler (37 minutes) and Draymond Green (36.1) carried the load, leading the Dubs to an 11-point victory over Milwaukee. It would not be a surprise to see one or both of these players get a maintenance day with Golden State on a 15-3 heater. Keeping this aging core ambulatory is a top priority if the team is going to make it out of the first round without homecourt advantage.
Should this supposition transpire, it may not push Kuminga into the starting lineup, but it should help him with increased usage while sharing the floor with less ball-dominant teammates. Per the F-R-E-E Stokastic Starting Lineups page, Quinten Post is expected to continue his role at center. Though he cracked 25 minutes only once in his last six starts, he could see a couple extra ticks if Green is out. This is something to file away for the three-game nightcap.
Brandin Podziemski returned to action after missing five games with back soreness, logging 29 minutes, which is close to his usual workload. He would get a boost if either Curry or Butler were out, which would move him from being a tertiary tournament target into the strong consideration bucket.
Since it is impossible to truth the Raptors (who have taken the strategy of keeping everyone on a semi-soft cap of 25 to 27 minutes, regardless of skill level), let’s look at some other developing situations:
Charlotte has indicated that LaMelo Ball, Mark Williams and Miles Bridges will be available tonight as the Hornets host the New York Knicks. Of course, this trio is going against a tough Knickerbockers defense, and it would be a shock for any to play more than 28 to 30 minutes, though each is a threat for 40 fantasy points with a little luck.
Chicago is in Sacramento in game with a 234.5 projected total that leads the slate. This is a back-to-back and the third road game in four days for the Bulls, so keep tabs on the availability of Josh Giddey, who saw 31 minutes off the bench after a two-game injury absence. The Kings are also on a back-to-back, with this being the third game in four days, though each has been in Sac-Town.
There is some fun “remember me” flavor in this matchup, though Zach LaVine may be away from the team for a second game attending to a personal matter. That would leave former Bull DeMar DeRozan and former King Kevin Huerter carrying the torch for that narrative. Domantas Sabonis is out, which means ample available minutes for Jonas Valanciunas, but his salary is commensurate with this increased workload. The availability of Giddey and LaVine will drive most decisions for this battle.
Indiana is on a back-to-back, with the team nearly a double-digit home favorite against the tanking Brooklyn Nets. The Pacers have been strategically resting players, so there could be opportunities, depending on the status of Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam. Brooklyn has been spreading minutes out in a deep rotation, though most salaries are now adjusted for this, plus the Nets’ “rolling rest” strategy. That has the starters as potential tournament targets, depending on personal preference and salary cap constraints for your DFS site of choice.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Pick
Tonight we can focus on Mikal Bridge’s under 4.5 assists prop on BetRivers.
The screenshot of Portfolio EV show that with the combination of today’s matchup variables and the -115 odds, there is an elite 8.0% expected value when factoring in the -137 “True Odds” and 8.7% historical ROI.
We can see that sharp book Pinnacle has this wager down at -149, which is just punitive, and even the other “friendly” operators are well into the negative-expected-ROI range.
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Stokastic’s Advanced NBA Statistical Projections have Bridges projected for 33.9 minutes and 3.86 assists., which is comfortably below the five needed for this wager to lose.
In the seven games without Jalen Brunson, Bridges averaged 4.7 assists in a healthy 37.6 minutes of run. However, this does include two overtime games, and Bridges had five or more assists only three times in this stretch, landing on exactly five once. For those who like to see the trend, here are his most recent games in reverse chronological order: Seven, three, three, four, eight, five and three.
Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today
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