Sunday wraps up the weekend with the NBA fun tipping off at 6:00 p.m. ET on FanDuel and DraftKings. Let’s get into the top NBA DFS picks and building blocks, including Chet Holmgren, Deni Avdija, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and some potential discount dandies.
These picks are based on the latest information available. For the most up-to-date lineup updates, visit our NBA DFS Starting Lineups Page!
NBA DFS Picks Today – Building Blocks: Sunday, March 16
NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks
Chet Holmgren: Thunder at Bucks
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 40.48 | FanDuel: 41.23
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 21.9% | FanDuel: 28.1%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $7,500 | FanDuel: $8,000
Tonight is the second leg of a back-to-back, the third game in four days and the fourth matchup in six days for Milwaukee, with Oklahoma City also on a back-to-back, though the next most recent game for the Thunder was their 118-112 victory in Boston on Wednesday.
OKC is a runaway freight train in the Western Conference with a 12.5-game lead over Houston, Denver and Memphis, though it is just behind Cleveland for the best overall record in the Association.
Milwaukee is mired in a three-team battle, with the Bucks holding a one-game edge over Indiana and a two-game advantage over Detroit for the fourth seed. OKC has an 18-3 record over the last 21 games, and aside from resting all its starters against Portland last Friday (which still resulted in a 107-89 homecourt win), there have not been many shenanigans from the Thunder.
Shai-Gilgeous Alexander is in a tight race with Nikola Jokic for the NBA MVP, leading the league with 33.0 points per game, which is a career high, as are his 6.2 assists per game. He is also contributing 5.1 rebounds, 1.8 steals (second overall) and a block, which has him with the second-highest median fantasy point projection for Sunday, trailing only Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Per the Stokastic NBA Boom/Bust Tool, Chet Holmgren is currently underrepresented in tournaments, with a 19.2% positive leverage score on DraftKings and a 21.1% advantage on FanDuel. The 22-year-old has been getting strategic rest this season, including getting last night off and missing three other games in this month. In his last four starts, he averaged 29.6 points, 14.0 points, 9.5 rebounds, 1.8 assists, half a steal and 2.5 blocks. The short slate and his salary make him one of the most desirable building blocks for all formats.
Jalen Williams (hip) is missing a third consecutive game, and Luguentz Dort is doubtful with a sore hip. Aaron Wiggins was out with an illness on Saturday, and he is currently questionable for tonight’s tilt.
If Wiggins is out, then Kenrich Williams will see a bit of a boost, though there is no guarantee he would slot in with the first five. Cason Wallace has been getting more scoring opportunities with Williams sidelined, so he looks like the third leg of an OKC triangle.
Antetokounmpo is projecting to be on 23.7% of all DraftKings rosters, with a lofty 43.3% popularity rating on the blue site. Damian Lillard just clears double digits on FanDuel ($8,800, 10.7%), though he is more of an afterthought on DraftKings ($8,900, 6.3%).
The salaries for the entire team have normalized for the absence of Bobby Portis, and with most of the usage being funneled to the future Hall of Famers, the rest of the Bucks are left for differentiation duty in tournaments.
NBA DFS Picks Today: Building Blocks
Deni Avdija: Trail Blazers vs. Raptors
NBA DFS Projections
DraftKings: 39.88 | FanDuel: 38.13
NBA DFS Ownership Projections
DraftKings: 60.1% | FanDuel: 38.6%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $6,800 | FanDuel: $7,500
Portland and Toronto each control first-round selections in the upcoming draft, which has led to various players missing games as part of an “asset protection” strategy. Despite their best efforts, the Raptors have won six of their last seven games, with two improbable wins in Orlando then four against fellow cellar dwellers like Utah (two), Philadelphia and Washington.
Still, the “Craptors” have a four-game cushion before they surpass Portland, Chicago or San Antonio, but the team has not been shy about resting players and even benching the understudies in game if they are doing well. Though that has not “helped” in the standings.
Robert Williams III is questionable with his knee issue, though he has not played in 11 games, seeing action in only three of the last 21 tilts. Jerami Grant is also dealing with knee soreness, having missed the last two games and stepping on the court only twice in the last eight games. Deandre Ayton (calf) has been out for over a month, and he is unlikely to suit up again before April. That leaves Matisse Thybulle, who is available but yet to play this season, and Jabari Walker (concussion), who is also out of the mix.
Anfernee Simons has not missed a game in two months, but he is questionable with a sore shooting hand and will be a game-time decision. This is a roundabout way of getting to Deni Avdija, who played in only five of the last eight games, but in three of those appearances he logged over 40.5 minutes, including each of the last two.
The former Washington Wizard averaged 35.9 minutes and 14 field goal attempts with a 50% success rate in these outings. This culminated in 22.4 points, 11.0 rebounds, 5.4 assists and 0.8 “stocks” (combined blocks and steals). The highlight was a 30-12-10 triple-double in Cleveland against the tough Cavaliers defense. Regardless of Simons’ status, Avdija is a core foundational play in all formats on Sunday.
There are several other players who can be targeted from the Trail Blazers, with rookie center Donovan Clingan shaping up to be the second-most popular Portland player after Avdija, with a tournament representation that should be north of 30% on both DraftKings ($5,300, 38.3%) and FanDuel ($6,000, 34.3%). Do-everything wing Toumani Camara is not as offensively versatile as Avdija, but he can slide over to shore up the depleted frontcourt and totally hold his own against Toronto.
Shaedon Sharpe and Scoot Henderson would be more appealing if Simons were to miss this matchup, but the trio can be sprinkled across Sunday’s player portfolio if all are healthy.
Speaking of healthy, RJ Barrett is again dealing with an illness; it is almost like the Toronto front office is just using the same excuse over and over for their second-best player to miss time. If he plays, it will be a surprise to see him garner more than 26 to 27 minutes of run since he played 27.8, 27.2 and 25.3 minutes in his last three outings, missing two games during this stretch. Scottie Barnes isn’t any safer with declining minutes from 27.2 to 25.5 and then 24.3. Jamison Battle, Jamal Shead and AJ Lawson are tentatively trustworthy, though we only have to go back two games to see that Shead played a scant 12:19 in the first half before riding the pine for the remainder of the game. This assessment holds, even with Immanuel Quickley, Gradey Dick and Jared Rhoden already listed as out.
The biggest warning the Raptors are giving to DFS gamers is dusting off soon-to-be 39-year-old Garrett Temple for 20-plus minutes each of the last two games. Caveat Emptor!
Today’s Top Sports Betting Pick
Lauri Markkanen is someone to consider targeting in the sports wagering world for the under on his 17.5 points prop on Hard Rock at -105.
The screenshot of Portfolio EV shows that this wager has a historical 1.2% ROI; however, that does not account for the unabashedly tanking Utah Jazz. The combination of today’s matchup variables and the -105 odds results in a tremendous 10.2% expected value when factoring in the -130 “True Odds.”
Clearly, Hard Rock is not reading the tea leaves that the Jazz have changed their strategy on tanking after being fined earlier this week. In the last game, Markkanen played 18:37 in the first half but watched from the sidelines for the remainder of the game. Heck, Walker Kessler was basically a healthy scratch once he was left out of the starting lineup, not even taking off his warmups on Thursday.
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Stokastic’s Advanced NBA Statistical Projections have Markkanen projected for 23.1 minutes and 15.66 points. That is well under the 18 needed for this wager to lose on Hard Rock. We can see that PointsBet and Rebet have elected to drop the line to under 16.5 points while still offering worse odds than Hard Rock. Act fast, this line is going to disappear quickly!
Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today
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